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it's a great pleasure on the India story to be joined by somebody who really influences the market ramdev Agarwal the chairman of motilal one of the most respected voices in the Indian market ramdev thank you so much for joining us here on the India story just wanted to get your sense on where you think the markets are going last year has been fairly flatish in a sense where do we go from here yeah markets are actually doing well uh despite even the fact that uh in the last one year earnings have been quite muted and actually even Q3 was not good Top Line growth was about 15 16 but bottom line was flatish and X of financials the earnings were rather disappointing and one can understand all kinds of cost pressures with a logistic costs have gone up uh energy costs had gone up so all the companies they are not able to pass on their cost escalation and now that same cost is coming down some amount of passing on has happened so my sense is Q4 performance performance of the company's particularly manufacturing and all will be better and as we go into the year unless there is a new source of some trouble I think we are going to see a sustained build up in the margins that the economy is doing well so demand side will be very strong uh the issue is that whether companies can pass on the rising cost uh I think we have got all the hump and the next year it looks at earnings built up will be pretty good and hence Market should also track that so before I come to the long term if you're looking at the short term and the medium term the next four months six months one year do you feel that the corporate earnings are likely to be good and so the EPS will be strong and therefore markets could be buoyant for that reason then of course you will be heading into political questions closer to the general elections and other elections yeah so I think this is also a year of uh election coming in and but then the budgets were very no it was not uh uh what I would say it was not uh impacted so much by the you know upcoming election uh the Finance Minister managed the you know Glide path uh correction from six and a half percent to 5.9 in fiscal deficit but uh actually to be fair uh this is the probably the first full year of recovery postcode last year at least till June it was impacted by covered and it takes time to build up the revenue base but if you look at the one hype uh high frequency but very high quality data there is a tax collection of GST every month so for the month of February it got released on first of April 160 000 is a very opposite I must say for March I think we should be somewhere around 175 or something like that so I think if the government tax collections are good uh it also means that of course it is on inflation also you collect tax but uh broadly uh 160 000 is a good Taxation and uh that that means that next year government expenditure will also be very robust demand will be robust and economy in full swing on a falling prices today we have seen the WPI has come down to one and a half two percent so that's a good sign uh you know so inflationary pressure is getting subsided and uh even Ukraine war has now become you know daily Affair kind of thing there is no uh not uh I mean of course it's a big War uh but uh I think it is now Market has taken it on the on its side by chance some ceasefire or something happens I think that would be added Advantage so in short run they were saying that you think it's going to be a good period ahead now you and others have been advising retail investors and others for a long long period of time that the real way to make money is to get into the markets and stay in it for a long period of time so far they've not often been listening to that but now they are starting to listen these monthly sips that we are seeing into mutual funds what is it 14 000 16 000 crore rupees a month so good retail participation now what is your long-term prognosis for them are you still saying stay in the market long enough because it could be a hundred thousand hundred and twenty thousand in the sensex within a few years so write that yeah so Vikram the issue is that India had a compounded past I mean 75 years has been you know you have gone through all the ups and downs years in global politics Global geopolitics local uh politics and everything fragmented government what not feminine throughout everything and yet India is where it is and when you look I mean it just compound the same numbers into next 25 years you know I mean we have seen despite everything nothing changes you know saying that nothing meaningfully changes India survives it's like elephant just walking through so I think if you look at the compounded future if I say we had compounded past we would have component future at the same page don't explain anything then also if you do the number for next 10-15 years it looks and there are not too many countries which have which can claim this particular thing you look at Germany look at Japan you look at France you look at so many countries which are at around three trillion dollars in the top I mean leave aside China is a glaring story in last 45 years America has been studied steadily going up and that's why their leader larger than 25 trillion so India has a chance of going from three four trillion it's it's just a chance to go to 7 trillion in next six seven years and then from there to build up I mean what more to say beyond that but uh I think this is one of the most exciting story India to become third largest economic and rather I guess it would be fair to say that the power of that compounding is is when you're allowed your economy is so much more it's okay if you're compounding at six percent or seven percent when you're a smaller economy but if you're a three trillion dollar economy and you start compounding at six percent or seven percent the impact is massive because you're adding what 200 300 billion dollars to your economy every year yeah much bigger uh yeah so about 300 400 billion dollars of uh GDP and uh what happens you must have seen that ordering a place you know is 70s 80s ordering five jumbo Jets you know every jumbo jet was given name Ashoka those kind of things today one airline company is ordering 500 uh uh uh the same place another line is another 500.
so there is a competition who can order bigger so you know this is a change of the scale I don't know what happens what would be the size of ordering when we reach 7 trillion dollar economy because Aviation will be all over and number of people who are flying they're hardly five seven percent people are flying right now if that goes with only 25 what happens to the discretionary consumption build which is going to happen in next uh decade decade after that I think uh it's a very exciting time I mean we can discuss uh numbers micro numbers so uh you know to best of my understanding okay let's look at the bare case now people do believe that there are things that could go wrong for example unemployment we've just been talking about the fact India is the largest country in the world in terms of population could be a benefit could be a negative in case unemployment builds up in case jobs aren't available in case there's social unrest um commodity prices could go up walls could happen what do you feel are the factors that could go wrong now ah see I I'm I'm an optimist uh per se what I have seen at the end of it see it's not that all those problems were not there I think the biggest problem India had in 92 was a Forex and we literally came to where Pakistan or Sri Lanka is today in 92 and from there to build from uh seven days coverage of uh Imports to now 600 650 billion dollars of Reserve that's I think one of the biggest unsung story of India and you know any country can do everything but they cannot print uh Forex and now we have adequate of that and adequacy of that and you see every week we are getting five seven billion dollars my senses I think this quarter we could be having a current account maybe plus or minus types so uh is it only one quarter does it become a trend we'll see what happens but quite possible that three four percent every year uh what you call devaluation of India Rupee Visa is dollar that might be I think of past but it's too early to thank you so much for joining us look forward to meeting you when I'm in Mumbai next thank you so much for being with us
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