저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 파월 연준의장이 임금 상승 둔화를 원하고 있어 고금리 기조가 이어질 것이며, 크레이머는 이를 시장이 아직 제대로 반영하지 못했다고 본다. 연준 발언 해석: 파월은 CPI·PPI 둔화만으로는 부족하며 임금 인플레이션을 낮춰야 한다는 입장으로 보인다. 실업률 전망(점도표)을 4.6%로 올린 것이 이를 뒷받침한다는 평가다. 시장 반응: 선물이 크게 하락했으나 크레이머는 이를 어제 발언을 제대로 듣지 않은 사람들의 반응으로 본다. 인플레이션 정점론에 동의하지 않으며 '고점 통과' 주장에 회의적이다. 기업·섹터 언급: 은행주는 예금 금리 인상 요구로 부정적 시각이 있으나 전반적 매도는 과잉으로 보인다. 골드만삭스는 보상 축소로 대응 중이며 경영진들은 아직 사업 약세를 크게 인정하지 않는다. 경기순환주(사이클리컬) 매수 의견이 언급됐다. 리스크: 연준이 고용을 약화시키려 하므로 경기 둔화와 실업 증가가 현실화될 수 있다. 채권시장이 파월의 의지를 의심하는 신호를 보내고 있으며, 영국 트러스 사례를 들어 채권 시장의 압력을 경계했다. 출연자 전망: 파월이 실업률 4% 근처 수치를 확인하면 목표 달성을 선언할 수 있으며, 그 과정에서 랠리가 나와도 신경 쓰지 않을 것이라는 시나리오를 제시했다.
다듬은 글
I thought this fragrance is consistent he made it clear that he was happy that he got a couple of good numbers but it's wage inflation I've been saying this over and over again it's wage inflation because that allows everything else to go higher if you make more then it means your employer has to charge more and this is the endemic inflation David he's not looking and pulling apart as some of us think he is the CPI and the PPI he's looking at unemployment and he wants wages lower right he doesn't want to say it because then he sounds like Grinch and he's not that kind of guy he's obviously an optimistic person who is stuck in a job where he has to be pessimistic and he's doing it in a way that I kind of like what part of it do you like what I like well he's certainly gentlemanly about it he's not he's not someone who comes on who says he's done a Larry Summers who's a smart guy but he does not he's not a bull in China but we come we come in and we look at Futures down pretty substantially please that's people who didn't pay attention yesterday yeah but I also have you know then I have people to say to him this morning well if inflation's peaked is growth really going to retract that dramatically say inflation's Peak I don't know no no what happens is that dirt Industries where we just have to come down and there'll be a bit of a news cycle for some people there's a bunch of Articles to uh research today about how look you gotta look through the problems now I don't buy that I'm just saying look can we please give him something that isn't hey it's not as bad as it was he doesn't want that he doesn't want Plateau he wants roll back because inflation's too high and he made it much more clear yesterday what he really wants which he's not going to settle for a couple of cool CPI numbers and start things up again right but I guess his wages those who are buying or selling stocks are trying to understand what this all means for next year and for earnings for the companies they follow and how dramatically those numbers are going to come down well it means don't buy well you have to buy cyclicals because we have an unbelievable infrastructure we have three different bills that Congress passed uh people are starting to talk negatively about Banks because they say that the banks are asking for more gonna people customers who want a bigger return on their checking account so that hurts but you know in general this is just people Futures people waking up and saying I got to get out of the market and these people don't think about the stocks you know they want to get out are they selling Merck yes Mark's part of the s p you don't sell Merk on this do you sell all these Banks I mean Goldman Sachs is doing what's right they're cutting some of the compensation that's what they said they're going to do I think we've got some of the wisest CEOs in the country with a great Fed chair and this is not going to be a a something that we're all going to look back and say I can't believe we didn't sell it's not going to be there it's not well most of those CEOs right now Jim are not actually you know some are more negative than others but most are not pointing to significant weakness in their opinion as of yet in their business well they don't have it Carl the Enterprises out there are strong what the FED wants to do is make it so they're less strong so that they don't hire so that there is a surf Bed of Labor they can't do it through immigration although someone asked about that yesterday the questions by the way were much higher quality than usual but the questions Rose to the occasion but I just came back and I just said all right he's saying listen we gotta we gotta win more than just the CPI and PPI we got to minimum wages I don't think he said and that's not going to happen I think he said we got a long way because we got to win I thought it was a measure I thought it was interesting Morgan Stanley today it was difficult for us to follow the logic of the changes to the SCP and the chairs comments both of which appeared inconsistent I mean they they took the unemployment dot up to 4-6 right that is that's a serious jump in unemployment it is but look he needs to have it go I mean you know I don't like the people who say so what happens after you win does it does the rates go down he said well can we win first I mean that's like say saying what happens after you beat Chicago uh do you get home field advantage he says Chicago first there isn't anything about him that wasn't NFL meaning the gold standard of I think David rigor that that wasn't impressive and he basically said you know we haven't beaten this yet if all this is true um what's up with bonds are are bonds like calling their Bluff I mean bonds are saying that he's he's big hat no cattle David I don't think he's big had no cattle I think he's real you think he's real yeah you know but the bond market doesn't no the bond market thinks he's bond market often wins who's this one really yeah others others argue look what happened to Liz truss she'll tell you what the bond Market's all about right at what point do they force him to do something different well uh I think he's got a path I think he's going to get a couple of four percent unemployment numbers and when he gets that I think he can say you know what we're almost there and if we have a rally yeah if the you know like the reporters well sir is the rally inconsistent with what you want he can say I don't care about the rally I care about the American people
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