저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 경기침체 우려에도 미국 경제는 생각보다 회복탄력적일 것이며, 연준 긴축(연방기금금리 5~5.25%)도 감당 가능하다는 낙관론. 소비·물가: 12월 소매판매 부진은 주로 가격 하락 때문이며, 과잉 재고를 할인 판매하는 과정으로 해석. 애틀랜타 연은 4분기 GDP 추적치는 3.0%대 이상에서 2.8%로 하향됐지만 개인소비 추정치 하락폭(3.7%→3.4%)은 작음. CPI 물가상승률은 6월에 정점을 찍고 11월까지 둔화 중이며 계속 완화될 것으로 봄. 주택: 단독주택은 약세, 다세대 주택은 매우 양호. 재정정책: 경기침체 우려와 달리 역대 최대 수준의 재정 부양책이 대기 중이며, 보통 부양은 침체 후반·회복 초기에 나오는데 이번엔 침체 전에 나온다는 점을 강조. 연준·채권시장: 연준은 금리를 5~5.25%로 2023년 말까지 유지하겠다는 입장이나, 2년물 금리 4.2% 수준은 내년 금리 인하를 시사. 본인은 연준이 결국 피벗할 수 있다고 봄. 다만 연준이 늦게 금리를 올려 과잉 긴축일 수 있다고 인정. 노동시장: 고용이 매우 강해 침체 시나리오는 이례적. 임금이 물가보다 빨리 오르고 소비는 서비스로 이동 중이라고 봄. 고용은 후행지표. 선행지표·리스크: 선행경기지수는 2월 정점 후 11월까지 하락 중이며 침체 예측 기록이 좋아 우려 요인. 그러나 금융시스템이 과거보다 훨씬 건전하다는 이유로 경제를 무너뜨리지는 않을 것으로 판단. 암호화폐·투기주 폭락, 채권시장 거품 붕괴 등 스트레스는 있었으나 경제가 잘 버텼다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 침체 가능성보다 연착륙·회복탄력성에 무게. 리스크는 연준 과잉긴축과 선행지표 악화.
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wondering if it's becoming harder to have conviction on given what Jay Powell said yesterday I think it's a reasonable concern given what Powell said and also given today's data particularly retail sales we sold off very hard on the retail sales number but you know the Atlanta fed did revise down their GDP tracking model for the fourth quarter from over three percent to 2.8 percent but what's fascinating is they didn't cut the growth rate and consumer spending all that much they cut it I think from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent and I think it's because a lot of the weakness in retail sales was in pricing you know consumers had a buying binge in the past couple of years and now inventories have piled up and companies have had to Discount their inventory so I think that's a good story in terms of inflation coming down and I think they are selling the merchandise and so I think the unit sales are going to be pretty good housing we've got some real weakness in single family but multi-family is doing extremely well uh Stephanie links and others on your show that pointed out that there's a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus in the pipeline much more so than we've ever had in the economy usually stimulus comes uh late in a recession early in the recovery we've never had this kind of stimulus in front of what everybody fears is going to be a terrible recession yeah let me ask you this was the FED more hawkish in its Outlook yesterday than you expected yes and no I I I guess the after this Austin May hope that they would give a little bit more weight to the fact that it certainly looks like the CPI inflation rate peaked in June and continue to moderate right through November that's a big deal in my opinion and I think it's going to continue to moderate but I think because the Fed was so late to the game in raising interest rates now they they may be a little bit uh overdoing it but look I I think the economy is going to prove to be remarkably resilient I think it can handle five five and a quarter percent on the FED funds rate uh I am kind of uh challenged in that view by the what's going on in the fixed income markets because as you know we're down to like 4.2 percent uh on the two years so that's signaling uh the rates will drop next year uh whereas Paul is saying he's going to keep it at five five and a quarter percent through the end of next year even if they do pause or pivot as you know perhaps the the bond market may be suggesting they ultimately will isn't that a negative isn't that they they would do that because they'd be forced to by the fact that the economy is actually starting to tip over and I would you know challenge you on the notion somewhat that you know the economy in your words I believe as you put it can handle five to five and a quarter percent on the FED funds rate you really believe that and how I do because you know know when you look at past business Cycles recessions were really caused by the FED tightening which is what's happening now and the yield curve would invert which is what is happening now but what's different this time is we've had Financial crises that haven't morphed into an economy-wide credit crunch which is in the past is really what caused recessions so I need to see more signs that the credit system really is challenged and it looks pretty strong it looks like it can handle a five five and a quarter percent on the FED funds rate so without a problem we had a cryptocurrency meltdown we still do we had a lot of these uh speculative stocks meltdown I I would say that bond market uh bubble uh is an example of the extent to which the market and this and the economy have been able to handle this kind of stress really remarkably well one more Point Scott and that is it'd be very unusual to have a recession when the labor Market is this tight I'll admit that the unemployment rate usually is at a record low or a cyclical low before recessions but we've never seen a scenario where the economy has got such a very strong hot labor market how do you get a recession out out of that I think the consumers are seeing their wages finally going up faster than prices I think the payroll employment remains strong I think the consumers will continue to spend they're just pivoting to services because it's a lagging indicator as as you well know and the more leading indicators are more negative than the job market would suggest the economy is yeah let me just say the payroll employment is one of the four components of the index of coincident economic indicators but you're absolutely right that in February of this year the index of leading economic indicators peaked and it's been falling right through November and that is a concern because it has an awfully good record of anticipating recessions but I think what's missing as I said is the financial system is in much better shape this this time around and I don't think it's going to trip up the economy believe it there
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