저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 최근 급락은 차익실현 성격이며, 연말까지 주식이 여전히 좋은 성적을 낼 가능성이 높다고 봄. 단기 시장 흐름: 최근 주가 급등은 펀드매니저들의 뒤늦은 추격매수와 연말 포트폴리오 재편, 그리고 연준의 비둘기파적 전환(인플레 전쟁 종료, 경기순환 관리로 방향 전환)이 정당화한다고 봄. 수급 근거: 펀드매니저 65%가 벤치마크에 뒤처져 있고, 최근 주식시장에서 2400억 달러가 빠져나간 상태라 연말까지 주식 비중 확대 압력이 있다고 설명. 금요일 변수: PCE 디플레이터 발표가 중요한 이벤트로 언급됨. 실적 전망: 내년 실적 모멘텀이 가속될 것으로 봄. 자본지출(capex) 사이클 재개, 소프트 데이터와 하드 데이터 간 괴리, 모기지금리 하락(4.75~5.2%대) 가능성이 소비와 지역은행 대차대조표를 개선할 것이라는 논리. 실적 목표: 2025년 S&P500 주당순이익 280달러 수준을 언급. 명목 GDP, 자사주 매입, 약달러로 도달 가능하다고 주장. 시장 내부 지표: 시장 폭 확대 등 내부지표는 상투가 아니라 초기 사이클 행동을 보인다고 해석. 주식은 나쁜 뉴스가 나온 뒤가 아니라 좋은 뉴스 때 고점을 찍는 경향이 있다고 봄. 반대 의견: Eric Johnston(Cannerman)은 경기침체나 실업률 4% 이상 같은 현금 청산 신호가 나와야 강세로 전환할 수 있다고 봄. 톰 리는 밸류에이션은 매도·매수 근거가 아니라며 반박. 리스크: 실적 기대가 과도할 경우 하락 가능성이 있다는 반대론 존재. 출연자 전망: 연말까지 주식 강세 지속, 내년 실적 개선 전망.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee he is with us here at post n welcome back thank you Scott uh what do you think we just got a little uh you know ahead of ourselves or I don't know maybe we maybe we just need a breather cuz it's been remarkable yeah that's right I wouldn't be surprised if there's some profit taking today I I don't think it changes the case that stocks are probably going to do very well between today and the end of the year and we get a pretty important report on Friday which is pce deflator yeah um you surprised that this this Market has has continued to just ramp higher almost unabated uh I think there was a sequence of events that justify the move CU we know last week we got a a Fed that has made a dovish move you know ending its inflation war or shifting it towards managing the business cycle we know that 65% of fund managers are underperforming their Benchmark and we know $240 billion was pulled out of equity so between now and year end which is a small window you do have fund managers trying to catch up and I think a lot of invest vors reorienting their portfolio towards a a nicer fed you know a less hawkish fed and I I think stocks are up investors need to allocate to stocks unless investors need to like take a breather themselves I had a conversation yesterday with Eric Johnston of caner who's been um as as bearish as you've been bullish um and told me he just can't show up now and all of a sudden change here's why I would not be able to come here and say high conviction bullish based on the current multiples where we are in the cycle where earnings are where positioning are is just not even close okay what what I would need is to see the either a recession or close to a recession where people think that it's coming we got a big growth scare and the unemployment rate starts to go above 4% a little bit of a cleansing and and lower prices in other words you're going to get all bulled up you know even more so now with multiples expanding to where they have um well you know I mean as you know valuation isn't really why anyone should ever sell a stock nor why they should buy a stock it really should be whether earnings momentum is accelerating and next year it looks like Capital spending is going to pick up there's a lot of surveys showing this and there's a gap between the hard and soft data so there's a capex cycle we also know mortgage rates could drop to something like a 475 52 next year well I mean that's a little that's not ahead of ourselves a little bit that would be taking a normal spread to the current tenure and that 200 basis Point drop in mortgage rates we know would stimulate the consumer um and re reify Regional bank balance sheets which is an earning story too so I'd say say earnings momentum picks up next year we have a fed that's trying to at least maintain the business cycle and investors are bearish there's a lot of anchored views we just heard one clearly articulate that they're going to only turn bullish if there's a recession yeah but I feel like the Bears are kind of dropping like flies now right I mean there aren maybe aren't that many of them I've seen some strategists who were were very bearish over the course of the last year suggest yeah well stocks can continue to go up this fed pivot is that powerful the other side of that though is what Eric Johnston and others would suggest that it's a little too early to think that earnings are going to live up to all of this hype a lot of hype that you have I mean your earnings number last time you came here like the the best case for 2025 amazing case yeah unbelievably incredible case was like 280 bucks but do I remember that correctly you you are Scott but that's that's not a prodigious feed it's about a 10% kager so it's like saying 5% from BuyBacks nominal GDP and weaker dollar get you there I don't think it's a lot to ask to get to 280 in earnings um but I think most importantly the market internals don't speak to what happens at a top this is really early cycle Behavior you know a a huge expansion of Market breadth um stocks really Peak when you get good news and they go down we haven't had good news I mean today selloff isn't off some great headlines it's just year end rally
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