저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 경제가 거품이며 곧 달러·국가부채 위기로 이어져 대공황보다 심각한 붕괴가 온다고 주장하며, 금·금광주 및 해외 자산 분산을 권한다. 과거 적중 주장: 쉬프는 자신이 2007년 주택시장 붕괴를 경고했고, 금리·달러·금 흐름이 자신의 예측대로 진행 중이라고 말한다. 이는 과거 설명이므로 예측 콜에서 제외. 금·금광주: 금 가격과 금광주가 52주 신고가를 경신했고 금 상승 추세가 이어진다고 본다. 금광주는 올해 세 배, 네 배 올랐지만 월가는 아직 보유하지 않아 초기 단계라고 평가한다. 달러: 달러지수는 아직 붕괴되지 않았지만 하락 중이며, 달러 붕괴가 본격화되면 금 상승이 더 커질 것이라 본다. 금리: 연준이 금리 인하나 양적완화를 재개할 가능성이 크다고 전망하며, 이는 위기를 악화시킬 뿐이라고 비판한다. 유가: 유가가 저점 대비 거의 두 배 올랐고 추세는 상승이라고 말한다. 미국 경제: 고용보고서가 예상보다 나빴고 노동참가율이 1970년대 이후 최저라며 경기 침체를 주장한다. 실질 성장률은 마이너스일 수 있다고 본다. 대선·정책: 연준이 대선 전까지 경기 악화를 숨길 수 있으나 대선 이후에는 긴축 필요성이 사라진다고 본다. 트럼프가 힐러리보다 낫다고 평가한다. 리스크: 중앙은행의 추가 부양은 문제를 키운다. 쉬프는 중앙은행이 잘못된 결정을 계속할 것이라 보고 이를 베팅 근거로 삼는다. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 시장 참여자들이 아직 위기를 인식하지 못했으며, 달러 위기와 국가부채 위기를 거쳐 거품 경제가 무너질 것이라 본다. 해외 계좌 개설과 스위스·싱가포르 분산 투자도 권한다.
다듬은 글
where we're at currently on your next flotilla of predictions Peter but congratulations on being accurate though it's kind of like congratulations you know you're predicting the Titanic just hit an iceberg we're gonna sink so what do we do well you know I still think it's early even to congratulate me and I'm not going to you know take credit prematurely but it sure does seem like things are proceeding according to the playbook that I laid out you know even though people still believe that the Fed is going to be raising interest rates at some point and that we we have a legitimate recovery the dollar is still falling more importantly gold is rising gold stocks again pretty much all the gold stocks hit new 52-week highs yesterday and here we have today with the dow down about 150 the Nasdaq is down over 70 points gold is up yet again it was up a little higher earlier this morning but the trend is still there and you know you talk about all these people who believe that there's no consequences from the last 8 years or 7 years of 0% interest rates and three rounds of quantitative easing how can anybody believe that there is not a bill that's coming due for all that because if you look at what Alan Greenspan did we had interest rates at 1% for not even two years and then we gradually raised them back up above 5% over a couple years no quantitative easing programs at all so what Alan Greenspan did was very mild compared to what Bernanke and Yellin have done yet the consequence is the payback for that monetary policy was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sure he was numbers are saying 1.8% economy I mean what's the real economy negative 2% who knows how negative it is because the numbers aren't real because the inflation rate is is being artificially suppressed but my point is if we had such a bad consequence of the reckless policies under Greenspan just imagine what's in store for us now I mean this is not just gonna be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression this is gonna be the worst crisis including the Great Depression because what we're about to enter into and I think we've already entered into you the beginning of it but I think it's gonna get a lot worse as it progresses but this is gonna be greater than the Great Depression meanwhile you've got a President Obama and all sorts of Democratic you know Talking Heads out there this economy is and Bernie Sanders running around like an idiot oh yeah look you know we we had this awful jobs report last Friday not only was it way below estimates they downgrade they revised down the prior month we had another mass exodus of workers out of the labor force to get the labor force participation rate back down some lowest it's been since the early 1970s before women entered the workforce so if you look at the labor force participation rate for men it's the lowest it's been in the history of the republic and so this has been a disaster and all of these so-called economists who are Democrats who are trying to say that you know the Republicans are wrong for criticizing the economy if a Republican had been president for the last seven years and everything was exactly the same can you imagine what they'd be saying about the rise in income inequality the rise in poverty the collapse in real wages the collapsed and homeownership the mass exodus out of the labor force I mean this is statistically the worst economy really in our lifetimes yet because there's a Democrat president nobody wants to criticize him from the left well the show isn't about who's right and who's wrong it's about knowing the future and getting prepared obviously we'll talk some about that but I mean you did say you thought well we'll start going back up oh yeah I mean you did predict that they would you know basically start talking about going back you know to get oqe unlimited you predicted how they would go up when they went up but you've also been predicting that you know gold would go back up oh they're trying to artificially suppress it but you know worldwide the demands going back up and they admit in elite publications that indeed the quote elite are hoarding cash gold you name it building armored bunkers at record levels and what are these people done well you know yeah I mean the price of oil is almost doubled from its low I've got back about fifth I saw it as high as about 50 160 it since pull back below 50 back in the 49 but the trend now I think is up and it's gonna be even bigger once the dollar really starts to cave in I mean the dollar index still hasn't broken down it's going down but I think again people are still holding out hope better what's the timeframe I know you don't go out on a limb but just you're one of those hacker guys out there what's the timeframe what do you really think we should around the coffee table talking to your wife well you know it doesn't matter I think it's happening right now when it's gonna accelerate you know from it from from a march to a stampede I think people have to protect themselves now I mean look at our strategies look at how much gold stocks it off for silver stocks I'm on gold and silver I mean you're talking about stocks a tripled quadrupled so far this year and Wall Street still doesn't own them so this I think is still early in the scheme of things so what your listeners to do if they didn't follow my advice you know there were three months ago and six months ago to get on this train it's you haven't missed it I mean you still got to get on you've got you got to get out of US dollars get out of US stocks you should be talking to my representatives at Euro Pacific Capital set up an account take your depreciating dollars before they really collapse and diversify abroad get some money into Switzerland and Singapore and another way Peter Schiff is not a sponsor I ought to call him given to me one of many that guy's a great guy but I do agree people should be diversifying but I mean look let me ask you this question then Peter looking at the time frame historically here I understand it's already here most the world it's already here in the US at a trot and you're some of the gallop a stampede what's the time frame though I mean I know you don't I mean speculatively yeah I think the election could be a callousness I think one of the reasons that Janet Yellen is reluctant to admit how weak the economy is is because she doesn't want to interrupt the Hillary Clinton narrative I mean this whole idea that Obama saved us everything is great and now we should turn over the reins to Hillary we really until the election inch yeah I mean but thing is things are getting so bad can the Fed hold out and still pretend everything is good until the election but certainly by the time the election is over there's no law there's no reason to put up the pretense so I think by the end of the year the Fed is gonna have to come to the rescue at least the way it what it's things to the rescue they're gonna cut race they're gonna try to have some kind of QE program again this is pouring gasoline on a fire none of this is going to help solve our problems this is why we have a problem the Federal Reserve has created this problem and they make it worry and politically solve this question but thought it wants to know I'm worried Trump's gonna get in and then that they're gonna hold the collapse back to living and blame it on him well I don't think they'll be able to blame it on Trump if it happens you know right when he walks into in the end of the office so but I think that crisis is gonna happen regardless of who we elect I do think that Trump has a better chance of doing the right thing than Hillary Hillary has no chance of doing the right thing Trump might see it all depends on you know he does a good job of identifying the problem his solutions are all wrong now maybe he knows they're wrong maybe he's just playing politics sure cuz he he wants low interest rates he wants low interest rates he's a builder we'll be right back we've got our gift here Peter chef Johnny's here at Pacific Capital com he's been dead on so far so we're gonna come back and I'm gonna ask him what's front and center on his radar not just my question stay with us Peter Chef of Euro Pacific Capital instead of me asking the questions here in the five minutes we have left you've got the floor what's front and center for you well Farzad concern is when are people going to wake up you know I was on this guy was a CBC a couple days ago and and still they acknowledge that okay things seem to be slowing down they're not as as good as we thought they were but they still don't understand the gravity of this situation they still have no clue how much damage has been done to the US economy these last seven years they still have confidence have faith in the Federal Reserve have faith in the dollar believe everything is gonna be okay and they just think well we're at a little bump in the road they don't realize that we've run out of Road or the road has now come to the end and we're going over a cliff that is action what's going on and to me this is more obvious than the problems that I was a warning about in 2007 that it came to a head in 2008 yet all the people who were oblivious back then are equally clueless now and to me this should be even more obvious especially since we just have that example of what happened in 2008 freshened everybody's mind even though it stole what eight years ago it's all the same people they were here they lived through it it's not like they had to learn about it in a history book this isn't like the Great Depression where it's very easy when our revisionist textbook - you know you learned the wrong thing we experienced this ourselves yet we're still not prepared for what's about to happen which again is gonna be much worse than the Oh a financial crisis and it's gonna be a dollar crisis it's gonna ultimately be a sovereign a debt crisis and it's going to bring this whole bubble economy to its knees and Americans are not gonna be able to get away with this anymore we can't just keep pretending we have a real economy we just can't keep running trade deficits and borrowing money to pay for imported products meanwhile we have a bunch of people who are pretending to work the dough are pretending Peter Schiff okay everything you've said is totally true tipple circles for even a be right here's the rest of story as Paul Harvey would say they're not gonna follow common sense like you just said and then stop pretending I think they'll get even worse nationalize things start wars I mean historically they'll make the wrong decisions to stay in power so what do you expect them to do I mean look what I did in 2008 make it worse give themselves trillions I expect them to make the wrong decisions until they can't do it anymore I mean eventually the market won't give them any more rope we will have hung ourselves on the rope we already had so at some point we're gonna do the right thing but my portfolio what I'm doing with my clients I'm betting that they keep doing the wrong thing because there's no indication they're gonna do the right thing so what are they gonna do they're just gonna print more money they're gonna take interest rates down these clowns are probably if you're gonna try negative interest rates even though they're not worked in Europe and they're not working in Japan they're dumb enough to do it because when it comes to central bankers if one of your friends jumps off a bridge will you jump off the same bridge because everybody is doing it it should be the right thing to do lemmings Wow and and and look what you're doing with your bet is risky but it's not I mean it's risky in that short term it looks scary but we know historically there's no way they can extend this forever no matter how much you do they've got I don't even think it looks scary in the short run because it's already unfolding Yeah right the dollar is already going down bubble is already going right the feather said they're out of bullets the Fed has admitted it isn't working yeah well I mean but the thing is their bullets never work but they're not out they have a machine gun they can print as much money as they want if they actually think money printing works there's no limit to how much they can it's not working sure how do they have the cake in either to you you've seen the statements they go no this isn't working we're out of bullets so what does that mean no they've never admitted that they still believe their policies were a success that's how clueless they are they still believe that their policy and a few statements were they've admitted it's not working I mean I'm gonna see some statements but no me you're right then they kind of like I know one side they go this isn't working but they did we had interest rates at 1% for not even two years and then we gradually raised them back up above 5% over a couple years no quantitative easing programs at all so what Alan Greenspan did was very mild compared to what Bernanke and Yellin have done yet the consequence is the payback for that monetary policy was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression sure new economies are saying 1.8 percent economy I mean what's the real economy negative 2 percent who knows how negative it is because the numbers aren't real because the inflation rate is being artificially supreme gold stocks again pretty much all the gold stocks hit new 52-week highs yesterday and here we have today with the dow down about 150 the Nasdaq is down over 70 points Gold is up yet again it was up a little higher earlier this morning but the trend is still there and you know you talk about all these people who believe that there's no consequences from the last 8 years or 7 years of 0% interest rates and three rounds of quantitative easing how can anybody believe that there is not a bill that's coming due for all that because if you look at what Alan Greenspan where we're currently on your next flotilla of predictions Peter but congratulations on being accurate though it's kind of like congratulations you know you're predicting the Titanic just hit an iceberg we're gonna sink so what do we do well you know I still think it's early even to congratulate me and I'm not going to you know take credit prematurely but it sure does seem like things are proceeding according to the playbook that I laid out you know even though people still believe that the Fed is gonna be raising interest rates at some point and that we we have a legitimate recovery the dollar is still falling more importantly gold is rise but my point is if we had such a bad consequence of the reckless policies under Greenspan just imagine what's in store for us now I mean this is not just gonna be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression this is gonna be the worst crisis including the Great Depression because what we're about to enter into and I think we've already entered into you know the beginning of it but I think it's gonna get a lot worse as it progresses but this is gonna be greater than the Great Depression meanwhile you've got a President Obama and all sorts of Democratic you know Talking Heads out there as the Communists and Bernie Sanders running around like an idiot oh yeah look you know we we had this awful jobs report last Friday not only was it way below estimates they down revised down the prior month we had another mass exodus of workers out of the labor force to get the labor force participation rate back down to the lowest it's been since the early 1970s before women entered the workforce so if you look at the labor force participation rate for men it's the lowest it's been in the history of the republic and so this has been a disaster and all of these so-called
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