저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 피터 시프는 미국 경기침체가 이미 시작됐거나 곧 시작되며 연준은 금리를 인상하지 못하고 제로 또는 마이너스로 되돌아가 양적완화를 재개할 것이라고 주장한다. 고용: 6월 고용은 고임금 정규직 대신 저임금 시간제 서비스직 위주였고, 24세 이하 청년층의 일자리가 크게 줄었다. 시프는 고용이 완만한 둔화가 아니라 경기 악화의 선행 신호라고 본다. 실업률은 후행지표라 기업이 경기 하락을 인식한 뒤에야 감원이 시작되며, 이 경기침체는 2008년 대침체보다 길고 깊을 것이라고 전망한다. 임금: 시간당 임금 상승은 물가 상승에 못 미쳐 실질임금은 여전히 오르지 않았다. 최저임금 인상이 청년 일자리를 줄이고 있다고 본다. 연준: 시프는 12월 금리 인상이 실패였다고 보며, 연준이 추가 인상을 할 수 없어 브렉시트 투표나 고용지표를 핑계로 기다린다고 주장한다. 이번 달 연준 회의에서도 인상은 없고 금리는 제로 근처 또는 마이너스로 내려갈 것이며 양적완화가 재개된다고 예측한다. 부채가 너무 커 금리를 올리면 국가가 파산하므로 인플레이션이 2~5%로 올라도 연준은 제로 금리를 유지한다고 본다. 유럽 은행: 도이체방크 주가와 CDS 상승은 브렉시트와 무관하게 소송 청구, 파생상품 익스포저, 이탈리아 은행 노출 등 문제가 누적된 결과다. 이탈리아 은행의 부실대출 비율은 약 17%로 미국 2008년 수준(5%)의 세 배 이상이며 지급능력 우려가 크다. 민간 자금 조달이 막혀 베일인(채권자·예금자 손실분담) 방식이 불가피해질 수 있다고 본다. 이탈리아 경기 부진이 부실을 키우고 있다는 분석이다. 출연자 발언은 시프와 진행자 Elena Eisse Catherine, 그리고 유럽 은행 부분의 다른 출연자 Edy Harrison의 대화로 구성되며, 사회자 발언은 제외했다.
다듬은 글
the jobs were created by businesses that they believed started up but also if you look at the demographics all these jobs went to people 55 and older younger workers 24 know and under net lost a tremendous number of jobs in June and of course the jobs that we did create were very low paying service sector jobs part-time jobs we continue to hemorrhage full-time jobs higher paying jobs the kind of jobs that that can support a family and instead we replaced them with these low-paying part-time service sector jobs so it is not a good sign for the US economy so you're still concerned about the types of jobs that are being added and and you can certainly argue that the pace of job creation has slowed since the winner I think we've seen a trajectory downward since about February but is it the kind of pace that really signals a possible recession Morgan Stanley is chief economist Ellen Zentner told The Wall Street Journal that to the contrary this actually looks more like a graceful slowing into a lower channel of job growth and that this is normal at this late stage of the business expansion I mean does she have a point there no I don't think so and unemployment is not a leading indicator it's more of a lagging indicator it's when employers are surprised by a downturn in the economy that they adjust their payroll so the fact that so many employers don't perceive just how bad the economy is going to be doesn't invalidate the fact that either we're already in a recession or a recession is going to be starting very quickly and once employers figure this out then they're going to be trimming their payrolls I think rather substantially and so as the recession progresses that's when you're going to start to see big layoffs and stacked in fact normally layoffs continue even after the recession is over but this recession is going to last for a long time I think it's going to be longer lasting and deeper than the recession that we had an OE two no.9 which we call the Great Recession so again I'm not really sure what we'll call this one the greater recession but it's gonna be worse well what about wage gains I mean that's been a point of concern over the past year we want to see those wages go up but in reason months we have seen them start to move upwards and in fact in June average hourly wages rose two cents an hour to 25 dollars and 61 cents and many would argue that indicates employers are finally beginning to compete against each other to attract candidates that the labor market is tightening I mean what's your take on on why wages have gone up well first of all they're not going up very much that was still below estimate sand prices are also rising so we do have inflation coming back and so wages are rising as well as prices but real wages are still not in fact going up but you do have some mandated minimum wage hikes that have been taking place throughout the country and since so many Americans now have minimum-wage jobs those mandatory increases are going to are going to filter through into these numbers but as employers react to the higher minimum wage by laying workers off this is going to begin to bite in fact I'm sure that's one of the reasons that you're seeing massive layoffs for workers 24 and younger because these are the workers that are most impacted by a hike in the minimum wage because they have the least amount of skills and therefore their that if they're the people that are going to be laid off first as a result of increases in the minimum wage and of course it's going to be increasingly more difficult for younger Americans to get their first job because the government is pricing those jobs out of existence and Peter in the last Fed minutes we learned that there were two things the Fed was really waiting on to make their determination to raise rates the outcome of the brexit vote and the jobs data we now have both so given the full picture I mean what kind of assessment do you think we will get out of the Fed at the end of this month well I don't think the Fed is going anywhere again as I've said since the beginning since the first time the Fed raised rates in December I believe their next move is to cut weights and they weren't really waiting on anything those are just the excuses the Federal Reserve can't admit that the economy is too weak for an additional rate hike so they have to keep pretending that they're contemplating actually raising rates and so they have to make up some excuses as to why they're not doing it right now and while they're waiting for some other data to come in but really doesn't matter what the data is because it's never gonna justify a hike they're always going to come up with an excuse why they're waiting meantime the next thing they're going to do I think is go back to zero in fact they may not stop at zero they may go negative and I do think they're going to restart quantitative easing because I think we've got a much bigger bubble on our hands than the one that popped in 2008 and I think the Federal Reserve finally notices recognizes this and they know that this bubble is too big to pop and say it they are determined to blow air and do it indefinitely so you think that at this point the Fed is looking for more reasons not to hike rates rather than Dyk them oh absolutely I mean they tried to hike rates in December and it was a complete disaster and so they don't want to do that again well the question is I mean how does the Fed handle inflation at this point we know they've said time and time again that they're looking for that target rate of 2% so how do they back themselves out of that corner because we know the Fed has to be concerned about protecting its credibility right well they have no credibility and they can't handle inflation you know it's the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt when it comes to inflation they speak loudly but they have no stick at all and because they have no stick that's why they have to talk so tough they continue to pretend that if inflation ever were to rear its ugly head that they have the tools to rein it in but no they don't because we have so much debt in the United States particularly the government and the Fed itself and the debt is so short-term in nature on the federal level that any meaningful increase in interest rates would bankrupt the country would collapse all the big banks that were bailed out they would all fail the US cover would have to default on its treasury debt so the Fed can't raise rates but it can't admit that so it pretends that if inflation you know picked up that they would do something about it but they will do nothing about it it doesn't matter how high inflation goes two-and-a-half three percent four percent five percent doesn't matter the Fed will stay at zero or practically at zero they will never try to rein it in because they ever tried they would cause a worse financial crisis than 2008 all right we're here we're on there right now I'm sitting here with edy Harrison we're talking about European banks as I mentioned the footsie 100 is up some 20 percent since February lows despite the uncertainties surrounding the country's recent decision to exit the EU but not every sector is winning in that equation in fact one of the sector's seeing a lot of pain is that of financial services and that's reflected across the board actually in Europe where banks are facing huge losses that's exactly what we're going to talk about right now and I've seen some pretty scary charts from Deutsche Bank regarding stock prices and credit default swaps is this whole euro bank crisis a real thing I think the answer is probably maybe is the best that you could say that my mantra is to prepare for the worst but expect something much better than that you know usually I say prepare for the worst expect the bad but in this case I don't think they expect the best I think that what what they're pricing in with Deutsche Bank both CD s and the share price is the optionality value that is is that shares are a residual claim on on profits and c.d.s is really an option value to you know if this company goes bankrupt then we get made whole so in both cases you're talking about option values and what's happened is is that the bad scenarios have become much more prevalent in terms of people's thinking tell us a little bit more about the CBS CBS why is it so significant and what is Deutsche see.yes saying right now yeah so I think that it's not really saying that Deutsche Bank is bankrupt or it's going to go bankrupt but when the credit default swap to rise what it means is there are more people were concerned that what used to be considered tail risks things that were likely to not happen are now going to happen so when you see it going up what it says is is that scenario scenarios have become much more prevalent in terms of the probability of outcomes and people are afraid of that now you can get these huge spikes up and then they come straight back down which shows that really it's just a panic but but we've seen in the CBS chart for Deutsche Bank is is that they've been going up steadily that behind the scenes that completely unrelated to brexit what we were seeing is is that people are upset about where a dirty bank is headed and a lot of it has to do with residual litigation claims against Deutsche Bank they're huge derivatives portfolio book and their exposure to other banks like the Italian vet yeah I was gonna ask you I mean what about Italy because that is what everybody is talking about right now isn't that the real problem area yeah so that is the real problem area the Italian banks basically I mean if you look at the Italian banks that there was a report in Wall Street Journal last week it said that bad loans as a percentage of loans in Italy are 17% of the total now it's worst in 2008 it was 5% in the United States and right now it that number 17% to almost 10 times the number of bad loans in the United States so there's no way if all those loans actually went bad that any of those banks are solvent so you have solvency concerns about those banks and then the question becomes how do you recapitalize those right and to what extent can we blame brexit as you mentioned I mean we can't really put all that much blame on brexit because we know this has been happening for a very very long time and we've seen the markets sort of comeback so it seems like they're even minimizing the tail risk of a brexit what are your thoughts on that so you know the markets are totally separate they're looking at the upside versus what the Italian banks are still in the doldrums and I think that really what's going on with the Italian banks is is that when brexit happened what was a problem that had been festering already became a bigger problem because there was no ability to go to the private markets and action recapitalize these bags so the whole construct in Europe now is is that before public money gets used to deal with any problems whatsoever a private money has to be used that means you have to recapitalize these banks and then bail in investors that is debt holders and potentially deposit holders and so you know these banks have been slipping in terms of their in terms of the share value and when brexit happened they slipped so much that people now realize that the only way out was bail-ins that were going to be there was gonna be no private money coming into these banks and that's the exact same thing that we saw with deutsche that's why dora is in is in trouble as well so now we have to deal with is the the bail in mechanism that the EU is so keen on actually going to happen so it may have exacerbated some underlying issues what's your perspective on why the whole Italian banking system is is under fire right now I think that it's under fire because of the the real economy basically you have an interaction between the real economy and the and and the capital that is that ever since the Euro started the Italian economy has been growing so incredibly weakly that as a result and bad loans have been piling off and when you have a capital base which is very minimal that can't be in these banks can't be recapitalized they're not going to have any loan growth and so the to sort of feed upon each other and they lead to a problem where that growth in recession is over but this recession is going to last for a long time I think it's going to be longer lasting and deeper than the recession that we had in oh and oh nine which we call the Great Recession so again I'm not really sure what will call this one the greater recession but it's gonna be worse well what about wage gains I mean that's been a point of concern over the past year we want to see those wages go up but in recent months we have seen them start to move upwards and in fact in June average hourly wages rose two cents an hour to 25 dollars and 61 cents and many would argue that indicates employers are finally beginning to compete concerned about the types of jobs that are being added and and you can certainly argue that the pace of job creation has slowed since the winner I think we've seen a trajectory downward since about February but is it the kind of pace that really signals a possible recession Morgan Stanley's chief economist Ellen Zentner told The Wall Street Journal that to the contrary this actually looks more like a graceful slowing into a lower channel of job growth and that this is normal at this late stage of the business expansion I mean does she have a point there no I don't think so and unemployment is not a leading against each other to attract candidates that the labor market is tightening I mean what's your take on on why wages have gone up well first of all they're not going up very much that was still below estimate sand and prices are also rising so we do have inflation coming back and so wages are rising as well as prices but real wages are still not in fact going up but you do have some mandated minimum wage hikes that have been taking place throughout the country and since so many Americans now have minimum-wage jobs those mandatory increases are gonna are going to filter through indicator it's more of a lagging indicator it's when employers are surprised by a downturn in the economy that they adjust their payroll so the fact that so many employers don't perceive just how bad the economy is going to be doesn't invalidate the fact that either we're already in a recession or a recession is going to be starting very quickly and once employers figure this out then they're going to be trimming their payrolls I think rather substantially and so as the recession progresses that's when you're going to start to see big layoffs and stacked in fact normally layoffs continue even after there was that jobs were created by businesses that they believed started up but also if you look at the demographics all these jobs went to people 55 and older younger workers 24 know and under net lost a tremendous number of jobs in June and of course the jobs that we did create were very low paying service sector jobs part-time jobs we continue to hemorrhage full-time jobs higher paying jobs the kind of jobs that can support a family and it's we replaced them with these low-paying part-time service sector jobs so it is not a good sign for the US economy so you're still
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