저자: BNPParibas애널리스트 · 외국인
요약 보기
DAX 사상 최고 수준이지만 BNP Paribas 애널리스트는 여전히 신중·회의적 입장을 유지한다. 시장 분위기: 1분기 실적이 예상보다 좋았고 DAX가 16,320pt까지 올랐으나, 실적은 주로 가격 인상에 따른 것이고 판매량(볼륨)은 늘지 않아 기초 체력은 아직 설득력이 부족하다고 본다. 밸류에이션: 미국 증시는 상당히 고평가, 유럽은 약간 고평가로 본다. 미국 PER은 코로나 이전 수준을 웃돌아 조정 필요성이 크다. 시장 고점은 이미 찾아왔을 가능성이 높다는 견해. 경기 전망: 미국은 다음 분기 경기침체를 예상하며, 유럽은 침체를 피할 수도 있지만 내년 성장률은 0.5% 수준으로 약할 것으로 본다. 향후 5년간 세계 경제는 평균 이하 성장이 예상된다. 투자자 동향: 개인·기관 모두 관망 분위기이며 거래량은 연초보다 약하다. DAX에 대한 공매도 포지션은 여전히 남아 있다. 개별 종목보다는 지수 중심 접근이 많고, 중국 반도체 규제 뉴스로 일부 개별주를 매도한 사례가 있다. 유가: 석유는 현재 과매도 상태이고 너무 싸다는 분석 입장을 유지한다. 최근 유가 하락 베팅(숏) 거래량이 늘었다. 주요 투자자 포트폴리오: 워런 버핏은 애플(장기 주요 보유), 뱅크오브아메리카, 아메리칸익스프레스, 코카콜라 등 소수 종목에 집중하며 현 포지션을 유지. 조지 소로스는 테슬라 매도 및 전기차 관련주 비중 축소. 데이비드 테퍼는 AI 관련 기업 11곳과 아마존·마이크로소프트에 집중. 브리지워터는 코카콜라·펩시·프록터앤드갬블 등 필수소비재에 집중하며 경기 방어 성향을 보인다.
다듬은 글
Dear investors, the mood on the stock markets is good, the DAX is at record levels, and of course, we're all eager to hear what the experts at BNP Pariba have to say, who have actually been rather skeptical in recent weeks and said the market is already overvalued. Since then, there have been a few more points added to the hype, and today we want to take a peek behind the scenes and see what the investment professionals are up to.
What about George Soros and Warren Buffett? What do they currently have in their portfolios? What themes are they focusing on? A very warm welcome to the new week, welcome to the new interview, and yes, we're seeing record-breakingly good sentiment in the market. Where did it all come from all of a sudden?
Hello Conny, yes, I'm happy to see you. Indeed, high levels again on Friday for the DAX, reaching 16,320 in HD. So, optimism seems to be quite high in the market. This probably also has to do with the fact that the earnings season for the first quarter was significantly better than expected. Many companies were able to withstand the high interest rates and a possible slowdown, and so on.
Still decent Presenting profits seems to have made investors optimistic enough that the taxi stock is expected to achieve a return of over 17% this year. You know we're rather skeptical, but the market has now bought up the DAX, so the bulls are loose on the trading floor. What do the investors of BMW Paribas say?
Is this optimism also evident in the short, medium, and long term? Are they continuing to buy shares on the DAX, or are they taking some profits and positioning themselves on the other side? Yes, we are currently seeing a wait-and-see attitude from our investors. Trading volumes are currently weaker than at the beginning of the year, for example, and we are also seeing a still skeptical short position on the DAX side.
This means that overall, investors seem to be looking at the situation cautiously, perhaps with the same surprise as the BMW Paribas analysts. Yes, and what do the analyses from BNP Paribas say? Actually, we have heard repeatedly in recent weeks that they are urging caution. Now that the DAX has risen further, will they remain skeptical, or will they also change their stance a bit?
With good company figures, we're feeling a bit more optimistic, but our outlook remains skeptical for now, more so for the US than for Europe. We've long held the view that the US stock market is significantly overvalued, while Europe is slightly overvalued, and therefore the need for correction in Europe is less than in the US.
In any case, we have price-earnings ratios above pre-COVID levels, so our highest expectation is that the market should be more topical. Its peak has likely been reached, and it can't go any higher. Rather, the need for cultural change is increasing, especially considering the economic development in the US.
We're already expecting a recession in the next quarter. We can hold our own better in Europe, but the recession might be averted. Nevertheless, growth will remain weak, probably around half a percent next year. The long-term outlook is that we'll see below-average growth in the global economy over the next five years.
Therefore, our analysts remain skeptical about valuations in the US, with a high need for correction, while after the positive first-quarter results in Europe, there might be a slight need for correction until... The sideways movement expectation, which is also reflected in the figures, is that our analysts note that while companies were able to present good figures, they observe that this was primarily due to price increases.
In other words, companies were able to pass on the higher costs, both in wages and input factors, to consumers through increased costs, or even raise their profit margins. However, we also note that volume is not increasing, and this is not a decisive sustainable growth factor. This means good figures, yes, but the underlying fundamentals are not yet convincing for our analysts.
Therefore, there is a real need for caution and a more nuanced approach to stocks. The skeptical attitude remains, even though the DAX has continued to rise, especially since it is clear that profits could only be increased or maintained through price increases, and not because of increased demand. Yes, we are curious how the experts invest; we always want to know the secret to success behind the portfolios of George W.
Bush and Warren Buffett. The portfolios are disclosed four times a year, as was the case again a few days ago. Let's first take a look at... I always find Buffett and George Buffett quite fascinating. They say you should n't put all your eggs in one basket, meaning risk should be diversified and different stocks should be used.
But when I look at his portfolio, in March he was focusing particularly on one thing again. That's true, Buffett has a rather concentrated portfolio. He and his partner Charlie Munga have long held the opinion that it's better to focus on companies where you might have an informational advantage or where you know more, rather than diversifying broadly.
This is, of course, contrary to scientific recommendations, but we've liked it very much in the past, and therefore he maintains his focus on Apple. It seems to be his favorite company, even though technology has been under pressure for a long time. Apple remains a large position. Beyond that, there's Bank of America, American Express, and of course, the financial service providers that benefit from the higher interest rates.
Our analysts are also positive on the plant sector, meaning he's optimistic. And then we also have consumer goods companies like Coca-Cola, which have been part of his portfolio for many years, and of course, German Shepherds, which he has also invested in in the past. So these five positions make up three-quarters of Warren Buffett's US component.
Buffett doesn't appear to be undergoing any strategic shift so far, but rather seems to be sticking with these five companies. What about George Sorris? He initially had losses he had to realize, or rather, he had invested heavily in e-mobility, but he seems to be moving away from that now. He's sold off a large position in Rivia, or at least significantly reduced it by half.
And what ultimately seems to have led to a falling out between the two? He sold his position in Tesla, which apparently didn't go down well with someone, at least according to Twitter. But George seems to be no longer convinced by the valuations and has now reduced his holdings in e-car companies. And if you look at the portfolio of hedge fund manager Nature David Pepper, we see a completely different investment focus.
He's investing in something else entirely, but it's also in the technology sector, unlike, for example, Bridgewater's chief investment officer, Pepper. He's focusing on AI. That's the big theme. If you look closely at his individual holdings, David Pepper's is very much in focus, even though the current attitude towards technology is rather skeptical due to high interest rates.
The fact that AI is the ultimate disruption is why they've primarily focused their portfolio on companies heavily investing in artificial intelligence. Currently, that's 11 companies, all of which want to equip their products with AI, but also Amazon, which has a very large position, and Microsoft, which has a controversial position.
And then there's the contrasting program I just mentioned: Bridgewater's investment. They focus on consumer goods, so not much on artificial intelligence, but rather on what we all need in everyday life. Yes, indeed, Ray Dalius Bridgewater is making itself more crisis-proof. They're refocusing on consumer goods because they're convinced that they should buy companies that produce products that performed very well during the corona pandemic.
They say these are goods that are always needed and will always be bought, even in a crisis. This includes Pepsi and Coca-Cola, of course, but also projects and Gamble, for example. These are companies that Bridgewater is convinced of. Let's look from the professionals to the classic private investors, you and me.
What are you buying these days? What's your focus on the basics? The DAX, of course, as we just heard, is currently near record levels, which is always exciting. But which individual stocks are in focus? Yes, there is indeed a reluctance regarding individual stocks. Nicole and many others were bought— excuse me, sold—because of the current news situation regarding the chip ban in China.
But beyond that, investors are very strongly focused on indices. There is still great skepticism regarding the DAX. Short products are currently performing best in the US indices, but rather in terms of execution. On the upside, both with the hashtag and the Dow Jones, and surprisingly, with the oil price prank, we are now seeing more volume on the short side, even though our analysts continue to believe that oil is currently always sold and too cheap.
So far, these are the current assessments from the BNP trading floor. Kemal Batschi, thank you very much for the assessment and best regards to Frankfurt. Thank you very much. Best regards.
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