저자: DanIves · 외국인
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연말 기술주 랠리 전망. 12월 조정(금리 인하 불확실성, 리테일 쇼크)은 매수 기회로 해석. 1월 기술주 강세 예상, 2026년 기술주 추가 20~25% 상승 가능성 제시. AI 확산으로 에너지(원전·핵융합, 전력) 테마 부상, 연준 신임 의장의 비둘기파 성향으로 금리 인하 사이클 기대. 엔비디아의 중국 시장 접근 확대도 호재로 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey, hey, hey. Anyway, you know what? There's nowhere I'd rather be on my birthday. The stock exchange just put up a beautiful post on the big board. Happy 80th birthday. It is not true by any means. I've only been 55 for 12 years and I get younger every year. As Dan Ives always says, I am the Benjamin Button of the stock exchange.
So, if you saw a picture of me now compared to 10 years ago, I look 20 years younger. Oh, you you're Benjamin Button. Well, first of all, happy birthday. No better place to be with you on your birthday. But, you are you're Benji you're the Benjamin Button of New York Stock Exchange. You get younger every year.
It's amazing. You know what? It's it's a joy and I my energy level couldn't be better and I feel strong and happy. And you know what? Spending the last year and a half 2 years with you has made me younger and more vibrant and excited about what we do. We do What we do is the most exciting thing in the world.
And now you're now you're also a tech strategist, too. I'm a tech strategist. I'm an influencer. I'm a celebrity. Oh my god. Hey, hold on. Hold on. Yeah, okay. Hold on. I'll be right back to you. Anyway, anyway, let's talk here for a minute. The market It's kind of amazing though. You know, so listen, we had we had a couple of weeks there and in we're right in the middle of December, okay?
And we had a couple of weeks there trying to digest the interest rate cut, right? And then also to digest the numbers that came out of the retail numbers that came out of um uh Thanksgiving, okay? And then we're sort of still I think feeling a little bit of a pain from that was bizarre roller coaster that we experienced and it's funny when I talk to people about it, it really impacted people a lot.
Those 2 weeks in November that really threw people for a storm. I mean, people who are already even that just you can turn that down. Two people who aren't who aren't even involved in the market were were feeling that sort of that point where the you know, the probability can get down to 15% for a cut.
It's so funny how the stock market and what we talk about, you know, I think it's I I I not to be lack of humility, but I think what you and I I met a a gentleman today who's a lawyer down here on Wall Street. And he said that what you and I do is is this ability to get across a message and to make for just the average person understand what's happening on Wall Street and to give them some level of relief because, you know, the mainstream media tends to catastrophize everything and you and I sort of you know, we put a little bit of a pause and we give people an understanding that you know what?
At the end of the day, it's going to be all right. You they need people like us to navigate these periods of time that are nervous, right? Like they you see for investors. I think that's But, that's how that creates the opportunities if you're able to navigate it. Well, think about how we know and I I that's so important because think about this year, right?
I think that we talk about it very often that every possible thing has been thrown at this market this year. A new administration, you know, that sort of a mini crash from February, March and April, Independence Day, the whole tariff thing, right? Then the the the the sort of the the aggressive narrative between J.
Powell and the president, you know, the thoughts about coming starting to the interest rate cuts like similar to last year starting in September. And then the government shutdown, the government reopen, that lack of economic data that we needed that everyone needed because it's so funny. It's things that you and I make our decisions based on, but it's funny how mainstream America, people who are not that in depth with the market actually look at those numbers now.
I'm hoping it's attributable to you and me making them excited about the the possibilities, but you know, some people are scaring them away from the market during those times, but you and I often say it. If nothing has fundamentally changed, the catastrophism is just chatter. It's noise. And if you're able to put that aside and pause, those are the opportunities.
Right? When the market is selling off and everyone's freaking, right? You could even go back to the to Trading Places, right? Everyone say No. Actually, Caddyshack with Rodney Dangerfield when he's on the golf course and they're screaming, "Everyone's selling, then buy, buy, buy." But, everyone's buying, then sell, sell, sell.
You think about that, you know, those are the opportunities. Every pullback that we've seen literally since the crash of 1929 has been a better buying opportunity. Probably ex the 2008-9 crisis which took 8 years to get back to even. I think every one of them including this year's you know, pullback in February, March, April, even the pullback in November, right?
Even that pullback in 2024 from January to March in 2022 when we pulled back, you'll remember, okay? And Nvidia had pulled back aggressively in 2024 as well. It was trading at 900 during that April selloff 8%. It got down to the 700s. That was one of the most pivotal buying opportunities in history.
So, anyway, enough with the banter and the chat. We're in the last couple of weeks of the market here. Right? We've navigated through November and we've gotten once again, you were the you were the you were the the the the calming influence that most people heard during November when everyone was freaking.
Right? You were the one who said that the chances the the chances of us not having an interest rate cut were the same as you playing for the Dallas Cowboys and me playing for the Knicks. So, that calmed everybody down. But, now we are once again the last couple of days, we've gotten through all of that, you know, the negativity.
What do you see people doing in the market in the last couple of weeks of the year? Look, I think you know, I think you're starting to see like these tech stocks kind of grind higher. You know, Nvidia's been up 5% though you know, this week. Look, I think part of it is that investors are positioning themselves for what I believe will actually be a very strong tech tape in the first month of the year.
Now, like Fed like you said like you know, good GDP numbers or whatever, does that like ultimately make them a little more hawkish on a pause in January? Like we've said, the reality is like a dove's coming as new Fed chair. That's coming. So, the point is the Fed's going to be in cut mode, you know, over the next 6 to 12 months.
But, look, I just continue to view the AI trade continues to lead this market higher. And and I think that's something Especially as Nvidia's going to get more and more access to the China market. Right. And we saw that this week. Wasn't there a little bit of the doors opening a little more with the Huawei thing and with Nvidia opening up chips and that.
So, once that door Think about this. Once that has been the sort of the the That's been pulling us back in the in the big catapult. Once those doors are really widened up then and then and then the whole the whole thing is just wide it's wide open spaces ahead. When Trump's going to China in April. I mean, the point is like you're going to see tensions get reduced.
And I'd argue like that's going to be very bullish to the broader global tech trade. You know, look, I think it's why I think tech stocks are up another 20-25% next year as a second, third, fourth derivatives play out across the rest of tech. And how do you see? We all know that they know Jensen, the father of of AI and Nvidia obviously has started to talk about the energy trade, right?
That at the end of the day, yes, everybody's putting hundreds of billions of dollars into the data centers and we know that. There was a little bit of a pullback in the Oracle story when they delayed the completion, you know, probability, but that we know that they're all going to need energy, right?
To make them move, right? You can have a good car with no gas in it, you ain't going anywhere. So, if you have data centers without any energy, you're not going to really be able to make the GPUs that you want. And so, what what actually you're you're able to to talk about it. Well, what where's that trade come in as far as the energy trade relative to AI in the future?
Yeah, I mean, I think nuclear's going to be front and center. You know, we've talked about names like Accu, you know, you saw the TAE deal with you know, with with DJT. I think that's a nuclear fusion deal which is super interesting. TAE, GE Vernova, you know, in terms of what I view as a core energy play.
Look, Google just bought an energy company yesterday. I mean, the reality is is that there's going to be a whole energy trade here that's going to be derivative as part of the AI revolution. And so, and those now Accu, who else can you throw out a couple other names that are What company did Google just buy yesterday?
I mean, like TAE, you know, which you and TAE which is that DJT. That was the nuclear fusion company that got announced last week. I think like Iron IREN is another core power play that we're bullish on. SIFR is another one. Look, the reality is is like we're we're now entering the energy piece of this AI revolution.
And so, is is solar a part of that? Is that a possible other arm to I mean, cuz at the end of the day we know [clears throat] people's fears are that there's going to be a drain on the grid, right? And that that's sort of everybody's fear. That the cost is going to that that people's individual cost of energy is going to be impacted while all these rich people are making GPUs for Nvidia, right?
Then me who's sitting there and I live in Oklahoma and that my cost or in Texas that my cost in my grid is going to go up. I mean, how does that play out in the story? It's a big Look, it's a it's an issue. It's a big issue, right? I mean, the reality is like three 3% of US companies have gone down the AI path.
Right. When you get to 20%, you don't have enough energy. Right. So, energy constraints in the US are real are real. Okay. So, now in the last couple of weeks we are starting to see in this week, right? Tech is leading the way, but we're seeing a bit of a nice boost in the market, right? You and I had talked about a seven in front of the S&P.
We've talked about, you know, a uh the Dow Jones approaching 50,000. I do have my hats printed up, which is sort of exciting. But, even if we don't get there, even if we close out the year right here, short of some kind of a tweet that, you know, that could be that one tweet away from crazy town that we always talk about.
You know, right now, it's funny. It feels almost like a little in a year that's already up 15% that is a little bit off, maybe off three two or three percent from its high of the year. Maybe we're seeing now a little bit of window dressing so that the market can really close out its year at the top top top after 48 record closes this year, which we've talked about all year long.
I'm the path for tech going into this last week is higher. I mean, just look at all of it. It's not even just window dressing, but I think it's positioning. Positioning relative to positioning books. Institutions positioning themselves, you know, for this tech rally, you know, into into year end. I just want to say, I know like we're getting to end the year but look, like we've said like it's just been so great these last, you know, two years doing this with you.
And this has been this has been a year so many ups and downs and to navigate everyone through it together in hand-to-hand sort of battle with the bears has been awesome. The battle of the bears. It's I love it. I love it. I love it. So, look, I agree with you cuz I didn't understand that people were talking window dressing cuz they didn't no lack of a better term.
But, you're absolutely right. It is not window dressing. There's no need to window dress this kind of a year we've had. It's a matter of positioning themselves into the end of the year. Right, so that you talked about that that first month of January, while obviously the bears are talking about that it's going to be a weaker year because historically years that you've had double-digit growth, they tend to be a bit of a pullback in January.
That's not your feeling. You're feeling that at least for tech, well, maybe some of the other parts of the market, but you believe that you they're positioning themselves to get some fresh money in there and get themselves positioned so that when that when the when when we're off to the races on the tech trade for the first quarter of 2026 and the interest rate cutting cycle and the new guy who's obviously going to be way more dovish than before and that the president will get what he wants as far as interest rate cutting cycles that and we know that a year-over-year historically interest rate cutting cycles lead to at least a double-digit growth in the years to follow.
Exactly. And look, and and Pierre, like that's that's a bullish setup in the 26. I mean, that that that's sort of our view. We'll be at CES in Vegas, you know, to be to to start the year. We'll be in Davos, you know, in mid-January. So, the point is like, look, it's like I think there's a lot of excitement in terms of, you know, what we see with this AI trade.
And I just want to say, happy birthday to you. Thank you. Happy birthday to you. Have a have a unbelievable birthday. You're the best. You're a treasure in New York Stock Exchange. You know what? I love And and for all investors. I I you know what? I I love you and I I I I love us. I think that we are we are a treasure to the to the investors.
And it's funny to hear I hear it on every street corner, you know, when I walk around, I maybe I'm a little more noticeable than you because I've got this crazy thing going on, but literally people you're better looking, too. Yeah, yeah, but you're the best dressed guy. I'm going with that story. It's okay.
That's what we we complement with the the wonder of Einstein and I is, right? But, and also, we can't do it without our partner, Matteo. Yo, Matteo's in the house. Come in and say we could not do it without Matteo, right? He's our eyes and He's the eyes and ears as well as also, I mean The visuals. He's gotten like he's gotten stronger and stronger this year.
He might be doing a bodybuilding He went from He might be doing a bodybuilding contest. Well, look, with the million followers that I've gotten, a lot of it attribute to him. He's bound to get a marriage proposal before you know it. Anyway, the last the last thing I'll say is it's so funny how contrarian that we tend to be and in a sort of a good way because most people always just love to bring in I tried to find a headline.
And we're trying to our headlines that we're bringing in are ones of of calm and forward thinking, right? And always airing on the side of of really thinking out the process and thinking out the market. things are bad, we'll say it. Like we go back to April. I know. So, I'm saying it's not like we're like smoking mirrors.
We'll say when it's bad. But, it's also navigating that the times where like it's not you have to navigate so many these things as we're going through it. You know what? I could even pull out probably six or seven times this year where all eyes were on a story that was so catastrophic about what was not going to happen.
And you held your ground. It was an Nvidia story about earnings. It was an interest rate story about cutting. It was any number of things that happened during this year where you the literally nine out of 10 people were saying that's going to happen and you and I were out on Broad Street telling the telling the talking the talking walking the walk.
And you were just clearly saying that's really I don't believe in my world. We may have a bump in the road, a pebble in our shoe, but at the end of the day, we're looking at the long game. And the long game is an industrial the fourth industrial revolution. Extra amazing. You're very very wise. So, I just want to say, thank you.
Thank you. So awesome. to you and year end one. And we'll be together soon. Look, I we're in Vegas. soon and thanks everyone for watching. We're going to be in Vegas. And happy birthday, legend. Thanks, buddy. You're the best. Thanks, everybody. This is the Einstein and I bringing you the story as it should be told.
This is the big breakdown with Einstein and I. I love you, buddy. See you soon. Happy New Year, everyone.
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