저자: DanIves/PeterTuchman · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 관련 '종말' 내러티브는 과장이며 기술주 매도는 얕고 매수세는 견조하다고 봄. 데이터센터 반대 여론과 정치 논쟁이 AI 투자와 중국 경쟁 측면에서 위험이라고 주장. 10년물 금리 5% 부근에서 연준이 금리를 인상했고, 인플레이션은 유가와 채권시장 요인으로 지속될 가능성이 있다고 언급. 연말에는 기술주가 반등하고 10년물 금리는 하락할 것이라는 낙관적 전망 제시.
다듬은 글
For me the answer was that you were the square of experience. Everything in life is now completely empirical and there is no one celebrating the experience of trading, investing, the stock market. Then my man, Dan Ives from What's the Name of This New Company? Yorkville and Ives. You better check it out.
This is unbelievable. It was Tuckman. Oh no, it's Yorkville. No, it's Yorkville and Ives. Tuckman and Ives. Tuckman and No, we won't do that. Anyway, let's talk about this market, my dear friend. I have a broken wing. I know, I know, let's talk about the market. Let's talk about the market. I told you one thing, you have to stop when you try to bench press 400 pounds.
I knew your shoulder would hurt eventually. I did one-arm push-ups. You know, but that was the problem. I think what happened was that you got the statue. Correct. You started having a lot of energy. Up. You put on a little too much weight and look what happened to your shoulder. What? I just like the market.
Okay, let's talk for a moment. The market actually had... It was on a bit of a wild ride. I have to go back to one specific thing, right? This idea, and you described it to me almost in the form of an animation, sliding down a ladder. So, as everyone knows, the market was really a bit burned, right?
Technology was going down, people were talking about all sorts of, you know, remember if you go back to Palantir last November when, you know, they had a seven-day run after their earnings announcement, trading was down 9%, they were calling AI a bubble, right? Mainstream media doomsayers love doing this kind of thing , and we're here to give you the real lowdown, right?
DL. This is the crux of the matter. And again, there are people in this AI industry who will think about this too . They took Mag 7 and the technology and divided it into sub-sectors. You have computing power, right? You have memory. Memory, thank you. You have the software, you have the hardware, right?
Infrastructure and hyperscalers. So let's imagine that what we used to trade as one sector is now divided into sub-sectors and what that has created is this incredible rotation where we actually move from one to the other. And people look at that and think, "I'm going to go out there and get rid of all the technology." And they don't do what they do.
If we look at the upside versus downside, we'll notice that even on days when the upside is 500 and the downside is 500, the upside versus downside is practically flat, 50/50. This means that people are not getting rid of the market. Buyers in the market are very patient . Sellers in the market are essentially selling with the expectation of buying something else.
After all, we saw that two players in the game, AI and Anthropic, are the biggest players and they are visionaries. We have to admit it. But they have their own plan. And ultimately they are the best in the hierarchy, okay, when it comes to ChatGPT and Claude. And so they came up with a headline that said that humans will be outsourced and in 4 to 5 years we won't have humans anymore.
I mean, so many, you know, you know, you want to use a Yiddish word to describe it, like schmances. What are they talking about, right? To use a historical Yiddish financial word. Explain this to me. What in God's name is happening? Because it does n't make sense. So, look, I think it's like a Jenga puzzle.
There are many elements in it . So, let's take a step back . This technology is developing at a pace no one expected. Good, good. Anthropic, OpenAI, are clearly ahead of everyone. All right. But the truth is that there is really no regulation . It's self-regulation, okay? Like any technology, it usually outpaces regulations, and then regulations limit it somewhat.
Bright. And I think that's what will happen with artificial intelligence. It happened because Dario published an essay in which he said that we need to slow down the pace of AI development because it's getting dangerous, because he's talking about the revolution that you were talking about. 100% because Anthropic is one of those participating in the artificial intelligence revolution.
But my point is that regulatory capture is essentially saying, look, I as a company want to help structure regulation. Bright. And a lot of this is that if you look at where Open AI and Anthropic are, they're at the top floor. Bright. When you are on the top floor, you pull the ladder up, no one else can get there.
It's like a great old cartoon, but go ahead . I mean, I see it in New York or somewhere. and then if you look like Meta, Zuckerberg and Met, right. the reason stocks are so popular, right. because they are like Nvidia, like me, we are not slowing down. True. This model they released with Muse will close the gap with Anthropic Open AI.
True. This is saying that if you fire AI in this country, right. the winner will be China. True. There's not even... There's not even a question. There is no debate. True. And that's why I don't care if you're red, blue, your politics, the truth. the reality is that in this country, if they release AI, right.
China is winning. True. And that's why the market not only ignored it, but actually viewed it as bullish, because if Anthropic and Open AI try to put sand in the gears or whatever, right. Software, remember, goes back to this SaaS apocalypse, which is a fictional narrative. Yes. Software companies will close this gap.
Correct. Meta will close this gap. Correct. Others will close this gap. Are these others? Software companies, cybersecurity, CrowdStrike, Palantir, they're all going to enter this space. Well, once they're there. But, but that's why , just like with technology, you see that second, third, fourth derivative of technology, right.
is doing exceptionally well. And that's an important dynamic that's happening. But it's so interesting because so many people in the market listen to what these people are saying because you go in and you have days where the market is... Look , I was saying for a moment that I analyze the daily market movements and I saw that basically on the days that we were positive, we had beautiful momentum and there were days where one out of two days were positive.
But the sales days were very shallow. There was a purchase offer on the market, right? And there was never any aggressive, multi-day selling activity there, right? But last week, as I was trying to process all of this, we had two or three days where the AI- as-the-end-of-the-world narrative emerged.
For three days, the stock suffered heavily. And what happened next? Boom, everything turned around and the buyers came back. Look, this scares people because so much of the market growth is CAPEX, it's building data centers. And then suddenly we have midterm election politics , data centers, the big debate before all these elections.
Data centers are not being built, this is negative for AI, there is no processing capacity. The point is that this also influences the political debate. All right. So explain it to me. What does the president have to say about this comment about ChatGPT and what the administration has to say about innovation?
We cannot and will not let China defeat us. That's all. In the end. I would say that this broadly reflects the general view of the technology sector. The political discussion is that every state, every city has to approve data centers. With the growing number of data centers, many people in these communities are wondering, "What does this mean for me?
Will this help? I go back to the issue of capital expenditure versus monetization and the impatience that many of these companies have in moving in that direction." One sec. I don't see any benefits here. " Well, it goes back to the individual people who live in these communities where data centers are being built.
Right. And that's why technology itself has created a lot of image problems, saying that all the jobs will be lost and utility bills will go up. You believe that, right? If not, then it's the other side of the coin. But when things like the last few weeks happen, regarding security, destroying humanity.
Right. What's happening is adding fuel to the fire. Right . This is already a huge debate. Right . Around AI and whether it's good or bad? And it's a dangerous precedent, because if you say you have things like New York being put on hold, a moratorium on data centers, then it becomes something that becomes something bigger.
That becomes, in my opinion, the biggest threat to AI. It's not CAPEX, use cases, clever. Right . It's a political issue that holds back some of the innovation. Right. But... So let's think about it. You would think that these people who are in charge of security, you know, cities, States and so on, they're trying to do things that are for the good of the community.
But they're making such shortsighted, immature, even immature decisions. Where are you... we were talking about artificial intelligence and building data centers, which are having such an incredible positive impact on the landscape, if they would just stop for a minute and realize that we're talking about jobs, we're talking about construction, we're talking about every positive thing that could happen in the country.
It's going to be a construction boom and an economic boom like they've never seen before. It would be like living in Kansas in 1855. Right. And being against the railroad. Right, exactly. It's coming from Chicago and New York, or whatever it is. Through my living room. But realistically, that's what's caused the boom in cities all over the Midwest and all over the world.
But it's happening here and now , it's hard to see. Right , I get it. But yes, I hear you loud and clear. I'm a little amazed, but ultimately it's kind of funny because, you know, I'm in the Dan Ives camp. I'm sitting there, but you know, I'm starting my engines. and I say, " People, you just have to be a little patient because you're going to see a sell-off in this market and you're going to say to me, 'I told you so,' and I'm going to say, 'Just be patient,' and in a week or two, everything will turn around and you'll see what happens." " But not a dollar of capital expenditure slows down.
Sure. So, on a net basis, it doesn't slow down. It's literally a disaster. But it's like if you started renovating your kitchen in your apartment. Sure. And paid for it. Assuming it's a capital expenditure. Sure. The contractor who orders the parts, sure. He renovates your kitchen. Sure. And what if suddenly the neighbor says, 'Hey, could we slow down on the kitchen?' "You've already paid the money.
Who is that? Kitchen is on top. See, but it's like the capex dollars have already been spent. They're there. That's right. It's trillions. For every dollar in capex, there's a five or six dollar multiplier in the remaining tax. And that's the key to the whole thing. It's about... It's about the multiplier.
And that's amazing. And I... You don't hear them talking about that. That's right . Because it also seems like , as we always say, narratives can very easily distort the market. Yes. If you go back to the South, or if you go back to cybersecurity, the business is over because Anthropic will take over that space.
Or Google a year ago, they're over because AI will ruin search. But still, it was a stimulus. And also because Google doesn't have the cash on hand. Or the Department of Justice was going to break up Google or something. I mean , it's just very simple. I'm saying that on It's very easy to get swept up in this market into disaster.
And the narratives that these companies sometimes put together. Yeah, it's amazing. And you always wonder what's behind it. You know, is it more than just a headline, or just trying to grab people's attention? Ultimately, you and I see it. I analyze it. I can even play devil's advocate and still see it your way.
And we've seen it ever since we started doing this. We've been doing this for several years. We can go back to the day when Aaron Burnett and I were sitting down and talking about tariffs, right? And we understood that they, you know, how they slowed down the supply chain and so on, and if we didn't address some of these issues, we were going to have problems.
And they disagreed with us and said, "No, you were wrong, and you don't understand this whole negative narrative." "We're just talking about patience. The writing is on the wall and everything will be fine. And we've seen it unfold incredibly. And that's my own opinion. In my opinion, the market, obviously during earnings season, you wait until October, whatever, but the S&P is outperforming 6% and overnight.
I think the midterm elections will definitely create some nervousness with respect to the data center base. People are voting emotionally and with their wallets. Exactly. And the debate on the data center side has an impact compared to when the Senate is divided, it's a stalemate. It doesn't really move anything.
You put it well. It went on like we went through several war cycles, and luck eventually turns bullish, okay? Yes. But when it comes to data centers in the United States, I think it's definitely a huge debate. Okay, I love all this. The election is coming up. We survived the new year. We survived...
Oh, interest rates. Let's talk about that, shall we? It was about sticky inflation, right? Of that remarkable number, 8% managed to J. Powell still stuck with that 2% number. I didn't understand what the point was, since it was... If you look at where it came from , it was super positive. But if you look at what's left, they've created another disaster story that we never hit that 2%, which is crazy.
The point is oil because of the war and confrontation, but the new narrative that's happening in the Middle East, right? Oil actually fell. We brought oil back down to 67, 79, 67, right? We actually beat the pre-war lows, right? And then we go back down again. Day after day, fight after fight, you know, straight from Hormuz.
Sure, problems. We went back to $105 and $110 for... Too many weeks in a row. So much so that the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the new chairman, who is usually transparent but doesn't tell anyone what he's really doing, raised interest rates. What was What's your take? 82% said they were going to do it.
I don't think the market believed they would . What do you think? I think they based it on some inflation indicators and 10-year bonds yielding 5%. Right. They had to raise rates. Okay. Because it might have been weird that I said the bond market is the ultimate bully. Right. And the bond market basically forced Warsh to raise the interest rate by 25%.
Do they raise it first, chicken or egg in this case? I think it was... I think Warsh held on as long as he could. The 10-year bond market basically says you have to raise rates. Raising rates might have provided some relief, but the reality is, look at persistent inflation, and it will continue to exist.
Well, but explain this to me. Inflation is caused by... persistent oil prices, which are so high. In short, it's the simplest way. Inflation. No, I think it's oil, but I think it's more than oil. Tell me, what, what, what is it? I think it's just... Look, if people who don't understand the bond market, explain to me who's buying the bond market, and debt has become very expensive.
That's what this high bond market looks like. Of course, and when you think about the fact that the United States has debt, just like every other country, and you need, you know, daily or weekly, those who essentially own your debt. Right . And ultimately, they're going to demand a higher income to own that debt.
A lot of that comes from an inflation perspective, like a store raising prices. Right. Whether it's transportation or energy, right. The difference, whether it's so many different costs of living, right. Then they don't lower prices. I mean, inflation becomes rigid, and I think now, like with the coming wars, that becomes the biggest...
Well, was that... A good thing or a bad thing? It turned out to be a good thing. A good thing. And the market certainly told us that. The initial reaction was negative, but the market loves that. It had to do that because ultimately, the prospect is that if 10-year bonds start to fall to 4.5 or higher over time, that's a prospect, I could say, that there's no pressure in the short term , but I think that's the prospect.
But it's amazing how the market reacted so incredibly positively in the coming days, when markets rebounded like nothing else. What do you see at the end of the year, you know, we're entering the last quarter? I think the market will rebound stronger at the end of the year because of technology and because of 10-year bonds.
Even if there's another hike and potentially an election, I don't think it will work . I think you'll start to see easing of 10-year bonds. And that, combined with the yields, creates a kind of double... shock, a positive one. Did you feel any pressure from the administration to move the war program forward, or was it just about inflation?
And Warsh knew he was an inflation fighter, regardless. From what, you know, what they think about Trump in the White House. You know what? Listen, I hope you understand. We've broken it down , right? Listen, Einstein and I are breaking it down, giving it to you to download. This is the crux of the matter.
You're on the street here. Wall Street is a game. It's time for you all to get involved. Yes, sir. It was like when you were wearing, like after surgery. Yes, sir. And you have it, and you have it. Did you tell anyone about the charity boxing match between us? No, so when you have surgery and you have it, you 're the judge.
Your hand, your hand is in a bandage, okay? And they say, "Oh, what happened?" " Oh, how am I supposed to do that?" Listen, listen. It may be that you tore your rotator cuff while picking up your luggage in Europe. Sure, when I've never been on vacation. I say it's a good story. It has to be something like, you know, you lifted 400 pounds and then you, you, you, you know, too much.
Oh, I need to understand this. Okay. You have to understand this. It was a pleasure. This is me, me, Einstein . We are in Sun and I and that's all I have to say about it. Yay ! Watch this video. Listen to it over and over again because this is going to be an analysis that you need to understand what's happening in the bond market, what's happening with inflation, what's happening with the interest rate hike and what the market's reaction is to that because it caught everyone by surprise.
We need to understand what's happening in the market and why it's growing , right? We are entering the fourth quarter. This is your time to learn, learn to trade, learn to understand and invest in the stock market. This is your only game. Change the narrative in your life. If you trade and need to learn more, listen to what we're talking about.
This is a complicated matter. That's why I'm bothering him with this a bit, because I know, as a layman, how bonds affect inflation and how the market distributes it all. Think about all the things that have been thrown at this market, and the most important thing is that it continues to trade at record highs across the board.
This is unbelievable. It's the only gentleman, Dan Ives, who can figure this out. Yorkville and Ives, go check it out . New things, breaking news. To the moon. Love you. That's all I have to say on this subject.
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