Chamath Palihapitiya unwinds two SPACs, cites high valuations and market volatility

요약 보기

결론: 챠마스 팔리하피티야가 두 개의 스팩을 청산하기로 했고, 전체 스팩 시장은 거래 종료 시한 임박과 높은 밸류에이션으로 비관적 상황이다. 스팩 청산 배경: 스팩은 주당 10달러에 상장 후 약 2년 안에 합병 대상을 찾아야 하며, 못 찾으면 자금을 돌려준다. 이번에 두 개 스팩을 연장 없이 청산하기로 했다. 시장 통계(Spac Analytics 인용): 합병 대상을 찾지 못한 스팩 약 550개, 청산 완료 113개, 신규 상장 대기 164개, 30일 내 청산 예정 20개로 청산 증가가 예상된다. 합병 후 성과: 합병된 스팩 주식은 같은 시기 IPO 대비 부진하며, 일부는 60% 이상 하락했다. 다만 발기인(스폰서)은 낮은 가격에 지분을 확보해 큰 수익을 낸다. 팔리하피티야 보유 스팩 예: Virgin Galactic은 발기인 지분이 극소 비용으로 확보됐고, Open Door·Clover Health 등도 언급됨. 대부분 10달러 아래이며 최고 성과 종목도 약 40% 하락 상태. 과거 발언 인용: 2021년 컨퍼런스에서 팔리하피티야는 자본시장 혁명이 수년간 진행될 것이라 주장했다. 크레이머 등 패널 견해: 스팩 구조가 투자자에게 불리하며 반복적으로 속고 있다고 비판, 일부 스팩만 돈을 벌 것이라고 평가. 리스크: 스팩 투자자는 합병 실패 시 원금 회수 가능하나, 합병 후 주가 부진 위험이 크다. 본 영상은 2022년 9월 기준이다. 종목 방향: 언급된 스팩 종목 전반 하락 또는 부진 전망. 대상 자산(지정 종목) 직접 가격 예측 발언은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. foreign unwinding two of his backs of course he has brought many companies public through uh that vehicle one of uh one of the main forces behind sort of the broad Embrace in the capital markets that we saw some two years ago and the speculation that followed uh as many of our viewers may know given how often we've talked about it you usually buy the shares of a spec that goes public at ten dollars per share and then the SPAC or the sponsor in this case Mr Paul apatia has roughly two years to find a deal in which you get an opportunity as a shareholder to essentially vote on or even get a Redemption even if you vote in favor um but if you don't find a deal you give the money back you can ask for an extension but in this case at least for two of his backs he's not doing that and so he's unwinding to not a big surprise of course because time is going by here and in fact when you look at the broader spec Universe here are some numbers from our friends it's back analytics we've light on now for for a couple of years there are still this is the numbers that are shocking 550 specs are still looking for a deal it's almost laughable the idea that they're going to be able to find one 550.

02. now some are smaller spacks they raised 100 million bucks or something along those lines they might have a pipe that gets into a larger number but still the idea that they're going to be successful highly unlikely certainly in this current environment especially we've had 113 liquidations so far but we still got a pipeline of 164 specs that still want to come public so they still want to come public at the ten dollars a share to give themselves that two years to look for a deal uh we do have 20 that will be liquidated in less than 30 days in other words they're coming to the end without finding a deal uh and they are going to liquidate we're going to see a lot more of that as you might expect given uh it's starting the calendar you know it's starting to anniversary or two year anniversary for many that's a look at why in part you may not find a deal and if you do your shareholders may not love it uh postback which is looks at not you know after the deal has closed how has the stock performed now to be fair many IPOs from the same vintage have not performed well either but you're down over 60 percent if you uh bought however if you are Mr palahapatia well you're not down 60 or even close you're up big and that of course is something we've talked about a lot as well the promotes that many of the sponsors get for a fraction of the market value obviously uh that the investors are paying um you know either Class A or Class B and the warrants that go along with it here's a quick look for example uh at uh his spax that he backed that are out there in the current market and we can take a look at some of them Virgin Galactic remember he sold out most of that 10.5 million shares will cost them less than 17 000 bucks Open Door by the way down yesterday in part because things don't look like they're trending on that business 6.28 million shares for 15 grand Clover Health sorry for the misspelling there 17 million shares let's call it for 20 grand and so far as well you can take a look at the stocks I think we may have some of the charts also uh for these or just look where they are all right none of them are anywhere near 10.

03. um you can see so far the best performer and that's still down what some 40 percent from where it was Apollo hopatia did appear delivering Alpha conference in 2021 he has been one of the as I've said great promoters of his time uh you got to give him that a lot of other things too this is what he had to say at the time I'm going to get a lot of credit when things go up and I'm going to get a lot of the blame when things go down I think we all have to take a step back and say we are one year in to a pretty meaningful revolution in the capital markets that will take years to play out and so I would love for those same people to rewrite that article in three years and five years and see what it says what do you think it's going to say in three years or five years Jim yeah David there was a fellow he was I kind of tangentially related to Wall Street his name is PT Barnum and there's a sucker born every minute and the people who buy these spacks they're dealing with PT Barnum and I think it's okay to say this whole idea of this this is a stack deck against people the fact that there's still 164 to do the fact that there's 505.

04. it's it's I'm not calling it a fraud because that's a technical term I'm just saying that you've been fooled over and over again and that the public should just not be full there will be specs that make money there are times when you hit uh you have five and a six and you and you're playing blackjacking you hit a face card but for the most part I'm going to say it this is a rig deal against people who watch the show