저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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넷플릭스 주가는 고점 대비 크게 하락했고 현재 저평가 여부를 검토하지만 투자 권유는 아니라는 내용. 주가 하락 배경: 2022년 4월 19일 실적 발표에서 1분기 순감 20만 명(러시아 철수 영향 70만 명 포함)을 기록했고 가입자 2분기 200만 명 감소를 예고해 주가가 급락함. 4월 20일 35% 하락, 시가총액 약 500억 달러 증발. 성장 둔화와 경쟁: 1분기 매출 성장률 약 10%로 10년 평균 25%에 못 미침. 시장점유율은 2021년 초 50%에서 45%로 감소, 디즈니+와 애플TV+ 등에 잠식당함. 2022년 1월 가격 인상 후 가입자가 줄어든 점이 우려 요인. 광고 요금제와 가격 구조: 광고 요금제 도입을 검토 중이며 훌루 광고 수익(약 30억 달러) 사례를 감안하면 넷플릭스도 연 50억 달러 수준 가능성을 언급. 요금은 베이직 10달러, 스탠다드 15.5달러, 프리미엄 20달러이며 경쟁 서비스 대비 비싼 편. 재무: 장기부채 약 147억 달러, 잉여현금흐름은 대부분 기간 음수. 2025~2030년 만기 분산으로 당장 상환 부담은 제한적. 유명 투자자 동향: 빌 애크먼은 약 11억 달러를 매수했다가 4억 달러 손실로 전량 매도. 리드 헤이스팅스는 2022년 1월 매수 후 추가 매수는 없음. 슈퍼투자자 다수는 소폭 매수 우위. 밸류에이션: PER 20배 기준 주당 약 100달러, 주당순이익 11달러 기준 약 385달러 정당화, 팬데믹 이전 수준 주당순이익 5달러 기준 약 200달러 추정. 저평가 가능성은 있으나 최종 판단은 시청자 몫이라는 결론.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and recently i've been studying the company netflix which many of us have come to know and love for its shows like bridgerton la casa de papel also known as money heist the crown and stranger things and lately netflix stock has been plummeting it's off 69 from its fall 2021 highs and it's gone from reaching a max of 701 dollars per share to now being at around 215 dollars per share the last time i checked so it's gone down about 69 from its all-time highs and that's incredible considering how it's been one of the pandemic darlings alongside zoom and peloton and now a lot of that growth is peeling away as more people want to spend time outdoors so it makes sense that naturally a bunch of the streaming services would lose subscribers but the way that it's happened to netflix has shocked many analysts so it's kind of no wonder that its stock price plummeted after its earnings were announced on april 19 and the after hours and then on april 20th 2022 it fell by 35 wiping off over 50 billion dollars of market value so it used to be around 300 billion dollars of market value and now it's at about 95 billion dollars of market value so it's been an incredible drop for netflix and recently i read this book by reed hastings and aaron meyer called no rules rules where they talked about netflix's culture of innovation and it makes me wonder if they'll be able to reinvent themselves this time around as they're trying to figure out if maybe they can add subscribers through adding an ads version to make the price of netflix subscriptions go down or also go after the people who are sharing passwords to be like hey you can still watch netflix but give us some more change so i'm gonna share some of my thoughts and analyses on netflix and whether perhaps it's stock price could be on sale so if that sounds good to you please be sure to like and subscribe to my video and youtube channel and let's get into it so what happened to cause a lot of investors to lose faith in netflix well on april 19 2022 the company announced that they had lost the net of 200 000 subscribers in q1 2022 and it actually would have been a net ad of 500 000 subs if it hadn't been for having to pull out of russia and losing 700 000 subs but all of that is way different from what the company previously told investors where they originally projected adding 2.5 million subscribers in q1 2022 and analysts had been expecting them to add 2.7 million subs and also to add insult to injury netflix is expecting a loss of 2 million subs in q2 2022 even though they had an earning speed and a slight revenue missed but it was pretty close and overall a lot of investors soured immediately on netflix for even saying that they suddenly started losing subs for the first time since october 2011 so that came as a shock and then maybe the amount of share sell-offs may not have been warranted but it seemed to have caused a mass exodus in netflix nonetheless in addition netflix's growth appeared to slow down considerably since they've been used to having 20 plus gains for years and in the first quarter they delivered about 10 percent revenue growth and that compares to their 10-year average revenue growth rate of 25 per year and also their ebitda average growth rate for the last 10 years of almost 30 per year so considering all that it seems like netflix is starting to go in reverse and that's not a good sign as well as their total subscribers globally went from 221.8 million down to 221.6 million which to me kind of seems like a drop in the bucket and they should be able to still totally earn a lot more money on this huge subscriber base because its close competitors are still somewhat behind it but catching its heels quickly where disney including its hulu and espn plus services is coming in at 196 million subs and then amazon prime is at around 175 million subs so it has a lot of close competition eating away at some of its margins but they're still trying to keep its margins in the 20 range even though that's down from the high 20 range so netflix still has somewhat of a competitive advantage but it seems to be eroding a little bit and i'm not sure how much competition and geopolitical turmoil as well as rising inflation and maybe changing consumer tastes and preferences might be affecting netflix because they also increase their prices in january 2022 after they had last increased them in october 2020 and they raised them by about a dollar to two dollars depending on which service you got so if you got basic they raise the prices by a dollar and then their standard package by a buck 50 and then their premium package by two dollars so even though technically you would think that that gives netflix pricing power maybe it doesn't anymore since it seemed like it resulted in a net loss for netflix in terms of its subs and we'll just have to see if they're able to maintain their pricing power or if they're moat in their competitive advantages and offering pure streaming services compared to the others that have other things going on is still kind of there or if maybe they have to change tack a little bit and netflix blames the pandemic for clouding their growth picture because they grew significantly in 2020 and then they believe that due to the covet pull forward that that explained their slowdown in 2021 and of course all of that was before the events of 2022 unfolded where we saw russia invading ukraine and also the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years and also netflix's competitors taking away market share where in q1 2021 netflix had half of the market where they had 50 and then that declined to 45 by the end of q4 2021 whereas we saw disney plus and code taking about two percent more market share as well as apple tv plus increasing by two and a half percent market share as well so all in all netflix is to figure out a way to innovate out of their decline in market share and sub count and actually they have a lot that they should be proud of because they grew so much that the difference from q4 2019 to q4 2020 was 36.5 million subs where they went from 167 million to 203 and a half million subs in only one year and then since that point in time they've grown by another 18 million and that's as of q1 2022 so in total they added about a third from their q4 2019 amount which was about 54.5 million subs so i think that netflix should be proud of how much they were able to gain subs and maybe they should be relieved that they didn't lose more subs considering that we're starting to spend more time outdoors and don't really have to stay stuck inside watching netflix and i think that shows a lot of brand loyalty that people are still willing to remain subscribed to netflix even though they increased prices in the last three months and maybe that explains why they lost 2 million subs more in q2 so far but we'll just have to see how much raising prices affects people wanting to stay with netflix or not because i know most of their competitors have offerings that are priced way lower than what netflix is priced at or equivalent to netflix but no other streaming service is priced above netflix right now and i also wonder if netflix may have saturated its north american market because it reached a height of subscribers in the us and canada of 75.2 million subs in q4 2021 and as of q1 2022 it went down to 74.6 million and i estimate that the canadian subscribers might be around 7 million so that leaves about 68 million in the us which is about 20 percent of the population so maybe netflix will continue to stay focused on its global growth if its u.s market is totally maxed out but they still have a pretty large captive audience considering and if we look at how much they're charging people they're kind of at the top of the range so that's kind of good and bad because they have significant pricing power and that may be indicative of their moat but the fact that they're entertaining the idea of bringing on ads even though co-ceo reid hastings had been against ads for the longest time he's now trying to change his stripes because he's in favor of consumer choice and if it means offering a lower price point at the cost of having ads then he's open to it if it means that they'll have a maintained subscriber count and we can take a look at their pricing models where if you just get netflix basic that will run you 10 bucks per month and then their standard plan is coming in at 15 and 50 cents per month and their premium plan is at 20 bucks per month and if you take their standard plan on an annualized basis that works out to 186 dollars per year and that's without any discounts and i know some people would love if netflix had an annual subscription plan with a discount but they don't and then when we take a look at amazon prime there are some levels that have discounted subscription rates like if you're a student and that will get you at seven dollars and fifty cents a month but if you go with amazon prime standard plan that's pretty close to netflix and it's at fifteen dollars per month but they do offer an annual plan at 139 dollars per year so that's a significant discount compared to netflix and they also have some original programming but i'm not sure how much of this membership amount is attributed to their streaming service only because i know that some of that goes to subsidizing like if you get amazon prime shipping services and other benefits that prime offers and so it's kind of difficult to tell the full difference but all in all you're still getting prime cheaper than netflix and with disney plus that's coming in at eight bucks a month and they have an annual plan for eighty dollars per year and then with hulu you can get that at seven dollars per month with ads and thirteen dollars per month with no ads and then if you get the disney plus hulu and espn plus bundle that will be fourteen dollars per month with ads and 20 bucks per month with no ads and then apple tv plus with its popular hit shows like ted lasso is one of the cheapest on here at only five bucks per month and then hbo max comes in at 10 bucks per month with ads and then 15 bucks per month no ads and then paramount plus is also very cheap like apple tv plus at five bucks a month and they have a premium plan at 10 bucks per month and if you want to get that with show time that will run you at 12 bucks per month for their standard and then 15 bucks per month for their premium and they also have some annual plans but all of this is way cheaper than if you were still signed up to cable providers like verizon or comcast so it's no wonder that more and more people are cutting cable where even if you as your family are subscribed to about five of these streaming services that might run you on average about 60 bucks per month and compare that to basic tv providers like verizon where you're probably paying 80 to 100 per month on channels that you may not even be interested in watching so if you cut cable you could be saving at least 250 to 500 per year not doing cable tv channels and just going with some of the streaming services so i think that's still a pretty decent deal and over the last few years netflix has been impressively growing its moat as an entertainment powerhouse by getting a record amount of academy award nominations at the 2021 oscars by securing 35 nominations and then that came down a little bit in the 2022 academy awards but they still had the most out of anyone at 27 followed by disney at 24 and then apple came in at six with coda winning best picture and then amazon came in with four nominations so netflix is far beyond most other movie distributors in terms of its popularity among viewers so while they've been doing well there it's come at the cost of taking on a boatload of debt where they've been increasing their long-term debt since 2017 significantly to the point where they took on a lot of debt in 2020 at a maximum of 15.8 billion dollars and then they lowered that in 2021 to about 14.7 billion dollars so it's still a significant amount of long-term debt that they've got on the books and unfortunately their free cash flows are not that great where they had positive free cash flows in 2020 but they've been back to negative free cash flows in 2021 and for most of the last 10 years they've actually had negative free cash flows so it's a little bit difficult to tell how well they'll be able to service their long-term debt because it looks like their current free cash flows are not nearly positive enough based on their last trends but it depends on if they'll be able to maintain their cash flows to afford their debt which is fortunately at low interest rate levels and most of their debt is not coming due until 2025 through 2030 so that's a good thing in a way that they have some time to be able to generate enough revenues and cash flows to afford their long-term debt but it could be a worrying sign in the future and could affect how you might value this company going forward and as far as what some super investors think about netflix it's a bit of a mixed bag though it's leaning bullish if we take a look at data roma's eight super investors that own netflix as of mostly q4 2021 where it was slightly more bullish in buying netflix compared to selling it but the only one that's updated on this list was steven romick of fpa crescent fun where he seemed to add to his netflix position over the last couple of quarters but netflix is only 25th out of 52 positions so he's highly diversified and i don't put too much weight on that but what's really surprising is bill ackman's moves because he's a highly concentrated investor so it kind of means a lot when he's willing to make a big move and he did that when he bought netflix at 1.1 billion dollars worth in late january 2022 only to sell it in april at a loss of 400 million dollars so even though he had three million shares of it in the pershing square portfolio he was willing to say goodbye to all of it because of he believes the story change where he wrote in a letter to shareholders that netflix is modifying its subscription only model to go after more aggressively non-paying customers as well as potentially incorporate ads which might not be such a bad thing as a sidebar morgan stanley analysts have estimated that hulu brings in three billion dollars from its ads and it only has a subscriber base of about 60 percent of netflix's north american subscriber base so at 45 million subs hulu is bringing in 3 billion so i would estimate that netflix could bring in maybe five billion dollars of revenues from ads alone but that aside bill ackman continued that because of these changes it makes it extremely difficult for them to predict where the future subscriber growth will be and the revenues and also operating margins and capital intensity and for all those reasons he believes that he's no longer able to predict with certainty where netflix's growth will be and that's why they decided to make this really rapid change in their holding of netflix to not have any of it anymore but he wouldn't be surprised if netflix will continue to be successful and if the investment will be really good at its current value right now but for now he seems to want to put maybe pershing squares money elsewhere because he's saying with the federal reserve's policy shift and also with geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation that that could lead to price volatility and security so perhaps it could be an opportunity rich environment for pershing square soon enough and who knows maybe person square will buy back into netflix someday depending on maybe if pershing square comes to understand the evolving business model better and if they get some of their confidence restored in their ability to predict where netflix will be as a company and the final note that i observe with investors is that reid hastings last bought netflix in late january 2022 at around a similar time when bill ackman originally bought netflix so i thought that was a bullish sign for netflix but we haven't seen reed hastings buy more netflix even though if he was willing to buy it at about 390 dollars per share you would think that he should be willing to buy it now at closer to the low two hundred dollar per share range and so it will be interesting to see if reed is willing to buy more netflix or if more executive insiders at netflix believe in the company that they're willing to buy netflix stock so we'll have to pay attention to see what insider activity will be like in the coming months and years and also when i did some of my own valuation calculations depending on if you gave netflix a pretty low growth rate with a reduced price to earnings ratio which right now it's trading at about 20 pe you would get maybe a valuation of around a hundred dollars per share but if you gave netflix a higher amount of their earnings per share like they've been doing in the last 12 months at getting about 11 earnings per share then their valuation is more justified at what bill ackman originally bought them at at around the 385 dollar mark so it's a pretty big range depending on which kinds of numbers you're using and i think maybe a more reasonable earnings per share amount might be what it was before the pandemic at around five dollars earnings per share and then that might lower the valuation down to maybe two hundred dollars per share so maybe it is on sale but this is not investing advice this is just some preliminary evaluation that i did and i'm still learning to see if netflix might be a good investment so definitely do your own research and due diligence to figure out if netflix might be a good investment or not and if you enjoyed this video or learned something please like and subscribe and i wish you well on your journey to being the best investor you can be till next time you
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