저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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이 영상은 찰리 멍거가 2008년 칼텍 학생들에게 한 강연을 발췌해 투자 조언을 정리한 것으로, 개별 종목이나 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 등장하지 않는다. 핵심 주장: 투자자가 되려면 자본가의 관점에서 기업과 돈이 작동하는 방식을 이해해야 하며, 이는 마인드 훈련의 일부다. 핵심 원칙: 벤저민 그레이엄이 공학에서 빌려온 '안전마진' 개념이 가장 중요하며, 확률이 빗나가도 버틸 수 있도록 여유를 두어야 한다. 학습 방법: 여러 학문에서 배운 내용을 서로 연결해 생각하고, 타인의 어리석은 실수(인간 심리의 '어리석음 수집')를 통해 간접적으로 배워야 한다. 롤라팔루자 효과: 여러 요인이 동시에 작용해 극단적 결과가 나타나는 현상으로, 인간 심리 이해에 도움이 된다. 사례: 여러 도시에서 독점 신문이 점점 더 많은 돈을 번다는 관찰을 바탕으로, 살아남을 신문을 샀고 워싱턴포스트 투자로 큰 수익을 냈다. 거시경제 관점: 버크셔는 거시경제 예측으로 성공하지 않았으며, 워런 버핏의 브라질 헤알 투자는 부차적인 활동이라고 설명했다. 다학제성: 전문성은 필요하지만 넓은 영역에서의 상식도 함께 갖춰야 하며, 생태학자와 경제학자가 서로의 관점을 종합하지 못하는 문제를 지적했다. 결론: 투자 성공은 여러 학문에서 비판적으로 사고하고 정보를 종합하는 능력, 그리고 인간 본성의 어리석음을 피하는 능력에 달려 있다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and today i've curated for you one of the greatest of all time investors charlie munger's advice for new investors or people who want to be great investors in a talk that he gave in 2008 to students at caltech where he also studied and at which he believes assimility around caltech is way low for a human institution and part of the reason of charlie munger's success in life in the world of investing and otherwise is due to his collecting inanities and ascininities which are things that are silly stupid or foolish and he's done his best to learn vicariously from the mistakes of others and avoided repeating those same foolish mistakes for maximum success in life and so you'll also hear about his concept of the lollapalooza effect which is an extreme outcome happening from multiple things happening at the same time in the same situation and so charlie has learned a lot about human psychology and that can also benefit us greatly in any of our financial pursuits so if this sounds great to you and let's get into charlie munger's wisdom on this topic i'm a caltech undergrad here and as caltech undergraduate undergraduate education goes we learn things from math and physics to chemistry biology all the sciences that you can imagine but we don't get a lot of insight into you know business and investing and as sort of a new investor my question is what in your opinion is the best piece of advice for a new investor or for current investors well i think it's very useful to get the capitalist perspective emily how you make this thing work for the people that own it because the reality will make more sense when you go at it with that perspective so even if you don't intend to get rich you want that perspective because you'll you'll understand the reality you're dealing with better so i think you mentally want to make yourself an investor as part of the proper training of your mind and since you have to do it anyway to improve your mind you might as well get rich while you're doing it and and so if you underspend your income while you're alive and keep learning and collect all the bone headaches experience mistakes other people made and avoid them and so on i would confidently predict that you'll do just fine but there's no one book or one idea or something that's going to do it the one idea that that people use is the one that ben graham borrowed from engineering which is the concept of a margin of safety in other words factoring in all the probabilities you want a bonus probability you want a margin of safety in what you're doing and and that's a very good concept when you're designing a bridge and it's a very good concept when you're when you're making an investment you want something that will handle some missed chances from life and still do well and so if there were one concept why ben graham would have said that's the concept but it's easier to state than it is to work it out case by case tom i interrupted you throw out a monger-like concept the things you're learning should be connected to one another and that's part of your job you're learning a bunch of separate things at caltech try to figure out how they're connected to one another and that may mean reading a lot of other stuff but it's all of a piece it's not a bunch of separate compartmentalized things and i believe i've lifted that from from from charlie yeah but all this stuff is really quite obvious that's it and yet most people don't really know it in a way where they can use it which is a very interesting educational problem i wanted to know what you think the most important career or academic experience a young person could get today would be to become a great investor in the future well i think it helps to have a generalized competency in dealing with words and numbers and quantities and concepts and of course it helps to practice with that competency and then if you collect follies the way i do and stay away from the follies when you're as old as i am you'll be a ritual man and by the way i'd rather be you i remember reading long time ago um like you know warmed up at you and above it were i'm not into like macroeconomical things issues like um but uh mr buffett he's i've read recently he's been like investing in the brazilian real and you know basically um long foreign exchange foreign currencies so what's i want to see what's your outlook on the us dollar and interaction with you know the economy and how bad it can get and how bad can this stock market get yeah well you know averaged out berkshire has not made its progress in life by making wonderful macroeconomic predictions we figured out how some things were very likely to do way better than other things and we got into those things occasionally in recent years warren has kept out of other mischief by doing things like by the brazilian reel and he's done it very intelligently and he's made a few billion dollars but it's it's a sideshow you know when the markets are scarce for our kind of activity warren has to do something and he's so used to a few billion dollars coming over the transom every he sometimes stretches a little if it's easy enough okay but but i i can't help you with a simple solution to getting rich with soft white hands i was pleased to hear you speak about common sense and the lollapalooza effect and your latticework of mental models i wonder if you could give us a specific example of how you integrated these ideas to recognize a great investment that would be a great help to those of us trying to understand and replicate your success well some of the ideas were so simple we noticed that in city after city the monopoly newspaper made more money every year and in some cities there were still two newspapers and one was slowly dying and so we bought the one that was sure to win does it strike you as a complicated idea it's the new newspaper and one time we did that with the washington post we made a billion dollars with 10 million so a lot of these things are perfectly obvious and and you just have to train yourself to you have to develop the knack of using the knowledge you have next it's a knack you have to work at it it won't it won't come in just over the transom because you'd like to have it you've spent a really interesting life looking for the truth in a number of situations and then have acted upon it whereas other folks in wall street and in academia and other cultures seem to even if they see the truth they don't follow it they they find it easier or what have you to follow their fellows in doing this what is it that you've done that you could suggest or that seems to be a model for these guys kind of discarding the opinions of their fellows and pursuing something that would really be as you said developing the knack for this i think to some extent i was naturally disrespectful of the received wisdom and i wanted to figure it out better and i think to some extent that was an inherited disposition and i turned what many people would regard that horrible women and the lemonade but i don't know i think you can make that kind of lemonade out of my kind of lemon i don't know if you can do a lot of marshmallows you upheld benjamin franklin repeatedly for his ability to master many disciplines uh and you spoke a lot about the humanities and social sciences and wall street um i i'm exactly half your age and just in my lifetime i've noticed a big shift uh in the incentive structures and everything uh from university admission to youth sports as well as the workplace in rewarding specialization uh do you think that is there any alternative way that you can think of to reward multi-disciplinary success as opposed to the very high degrees of specialization that seem to be what gained people's status and financial reward well of course we should have high degrees of specialization and if you get a nice little cancer in some ghastly place you will not want a guy that really understands proust and but of course it's my argument that you can be quite competent in your specialized field and also have the common sense over a broad area if you work at it appropriately let's take the case of newton more than half of the powerful creative period in newton's life was totally wasted on alchemy and theology and in the remaining half he managed to create quite a distinction in his chosen profession he had power to burn now let's assume you're not new you're just a good guy who's going to be a good mechanical engineer you know don't you think you get a general competency just as you might be a good engineer and also play golf there's plenty of time to do it without ruining your specialized competency all you have to have is the will and the technique and every hour you delay in doing it it's just you're just increasing the chances that you'll remain in the shallows now most people are happy in the shallows after all there's always somebody that's in a shallower place you go into the really fundamental tensions of multidisciplinarity every biologist thinks a little like paul ehrlich you know they think my god you know carrying capacity of the land you excel at tragedies coming and every economist thinks we've had compound interest of three or four percent for 300 years and who's to say we can't do it for 500 years more and they just each live in their little world and nobody thinks that these ideas in the end have to synthesize in the real world and of course from neither side are they very good at the synthesis every ecologist underestimates the power of the ideas of the economist and every economist tends to believe that any troubles from carrying capacity are are almost non-existent i once heard an economist say that the supply of coal was infinite and i said how did it become infinite and he said well not quite infinite but i am not inventing any story they're in my collection of inanities as i say if you just join my collecting council you can have all the fun i've had all my life and you'll never run short of material and so to summarize charlie's key lessons here your success in life and in investing will depend on how well you can critically think and synthesize information from multiple disciplines while avoiding the follies of human nature and charlie munger and warren buffett like to follow in the footsteps of economist john maynard keynes who said that it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong and so if you enjoyed this video or learned something please like and subscribe and i wish you well on your journey to being the best investor you can be till next time you
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