저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 8단계 투자 체크리스트를 소개하는 교육 영상으로, 특정 종목이나 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음. 핵심 원칙: 단순하고 예측 가능한 잉여현금흐름 창출 기업, 지배적 시장 지위, 높은 진입장벽(해자), 높은 자본수익률, 외생적 위험 노출 제한, 견고한 재무구조, 우수한 경영과 지배구조. 애크먼 사례: 치포틀, 던킨/버거킹(RBI), 웬디스, 맥도날드, 스타벅스(매도), 넷플릭스 투자 언급. 치포틀은 대장균 사태 후 잉여현금흐름이 2016년 바닥 후 2021년 크게 회복됐다고 설명. 프레임워크 설명: 가치는 기업이 평생 창출할 현금의 현재가치이며, 가격과 가치 간 큰 괴리(예: 1달러 가치를 50센트에 매수)가 있을 때 투자 기회로 본다는 논리. 철도, 비자/마스터카드 등 진입장벽 높은 산업 사례도 언급. 리스크: 불확실성이 커지면 위험프리미엄이 올라 변동성이 커진다는 점, 재무 레버리지가 높으면 위기 시 취약하다는 점 강조.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and welcome back to my channel if you haven't already it would mean a lot to me in the youtube algorithm if you could please like and subscribe to my video on youtube channel because today i'm going to go through famous hedge fund and activist investor bill ackman's eight-step investing checklist or also known as eight principles that he considers before he makes an investment on behalf of pershing square capital management and if you listen to his interviews he sounds so soft and speaks fast that you could almost miss it in the blink of an eye what he says about his investing approach and strategy so i'm gonna break down step by step what he says in his eight step approach and also share some clips from his previous interviews where he explains his rationale and he's a very concentrated investor much like warren buffett and charlie munger so bill ackman is a really good super investor to study and keep tabs on his 13f filings of what equities pershing square happens to own and see if we can study and understand some of these businesses that might also be in our circle of competence so let's get into this checklist our principles are basically one invest in simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that are in high returns on capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management good governance sounds logical so did you catch all of his eight steps that he said rapid fire in about 15 seconds if not never fear because give the following clip a listen to hear bill further expand on his investing criteria so we look for very high quality businesses uh what we describe as simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that warren buffett would describe as having a moat around it right if you if you believe that the value of anything financial is the present value the cash you can take out of it over its life we need to know how much cash is going to generate over its life so the business quality to us is the single most important uh criterion for determining what's interesting because if we can't predict the cash flows we don't know what's worth we don't know what's worth we can't invest so we figure out what it's worth figure out how good the business is how predictable will this cash flows be from a railroad or a spirits company or a real estate company shopping mall business and then we say okay well where's it trading and if there's a wide gap between price and value you can buy it for 50 cents it's worth a dollar 20 and then we're going to take a hard look and try to understand why it trades at a deep discount and uh once we understand the reasons we decide well these things that we can solve you know can we in light of the situation uh the circumstances can we be influential in changing these these levers that can cause this valuation discrepancy to narrow and is this a business that while we're causing the valuation discrepancy to narrow we can also perhaps contribute to the valuation growing and those things are true we found something that looks quite interesting for us that was better right okay so allow me to repeat these steps slowly so we can better absorb these concepts where businesses must number one be simple and predictable number two be free cash flow generative number three have a dominant market position number four have large barriers to entry or also known as having a moat number five high return on capital number six limited exposure to extrinsic risks we can't control number seven have a strong balance sheet and the business doesn't need access to outside capital to survive and number eight excellent management and good governance so those were bill ackman's eight steps and let's go through these one by one and i've got a few clips to support his rationale behind each of these steps when it comes to the first investing checklist item of simple and predictable let's take a look at pershing square's half a dozen positions as of q4 2021 to see right off the bat among the consumer discretionary positions that three of them are food related with chipotle mexican grill domino's pizza and restaurant brands international based in canada and that one happens to own popular names like burger king tim hortons popeyes and firehouse subs so i think there's hardly any american that hasn't tried food from these popular chains yet and so these are pretty simple businesses where they sell popular food that a lot of people enjoy and these businesses continue to generate a lot of cash flow even during recessions so even during tough times like during the great recession or even during the last 2020 recession people were still eating food from chipotle or burger king and that was a simple pleasure that a lot of people look forward to when times are otherwise tough so a lot of these food businesses are able to continue generating a lot of revenues and earnings in spite of whatever is going on so that makes them pretty simple to understand the appeal of food businesses and when they're as strong as these ones it's no wonder that bill ackman is heavily invested in food and previously he used to be invested in starbucks and he has since sold that position starbucks is a in a way a technology company one of its competitive advantages versus the the corner coffee shop is its you know digital ordering and delivery and and uh contactless way of interacting with customers i think every business is a technology company and so i sort of wonder if bill ackman flipped burgers when he was a teenager because he seems to flip a lot of money out of food businesses as he summarized how they're so predictable and simple in the following so chipotle we're back to core purging square kind of investments so instead of investing in chipotle when they're doing extremely well in the stock 730 we wait for an otherwise great company with a great brand to make a mistake and for people to lose confidence in the company and the management the board and that's when we can be most effective and we you know we've been very effective in fast food you know uh first investment fast food was wendy's doubled our money uh mcdonald's similar kind of burger king at one point burger king we're still of major shareholders now called restaurant brands we made three and a half times our money with that company so it's a space we know well it's a simple predictable free cash flow generative business it's an unlevered company with a strong balance sheet they own all their stores which is very important because they can when you have a problem it's easier to fix it if you control the store base and it's the first well i eat on a regular basis at chipotle i eat on a less regular basis at the other fast food companies we've invested in so i like the food i think it's healthy i think it's good for america i think they got a sustainable moat around their business and i think the food safety issues they've had i think they've addressed properly and it's a matter of time before the customer comes back and with item number two free cash flow generative you can think of this as the net cash after a business subtracts for the expenses that went into operating the business as well as subtracting the maintenance capital expenditures or capex and that went into maintaining the business and you're left with free cash flows which is super critically important to bill ackman because as you heard earlier if you can't predict the cash flows then you can't determine what a business is worth or its intrinsic value and then you can't invest in the business and he was able to figure out the free cash flow trajectory for businesses like chipotle where they were dealing with the e coli situation and then their free cash flows bottomed out in 2016 before recovering and then having monster free cash flows in 2021 so bill ackman proved to be right with being able to predict what the cash flows would be for chipotle as well as he's recently invested in netflix because he believes among some other factors that i talked about in my video comparing netflix to google he has a lot of reasons why he's bullish on netflix but one of them is that it has an improving free cash flow situation and that will help for investing in its growth and also returning cash to shareholders eventually as well as he talks about how businesses like google amazon and facebook are really powerful cash flow generators because he said the following about them businesses like google facebook think long-term beneficiaries and ultimately the value of a business is the present value the cash it generates over its life and even if the cash flows are disrupted in the short term if they're greater in the long term the values will be higher and if you can develop some private equity type of skills this can help you with the first two checklist items that bill also talks about we're really a private equity firm that invests only in the public markets and so you know several years in private equity because private equity investors focus on simple predictable free cash regenerative businesses and focus on businesses that can support a large amount of debt and really determine valuation think about industry dynamics and with item number three dominant market position this gets at a company's durable competitive advantage as buffett likes to talk about and that relates to a company's moat or their ability to withstand a lot of difficult situations while maintaining their earnings ability so he has a few things to say about this too with companies like amazon and the more dominant large cap you know companies the more the stronger the balance sheet the stronger the market position those businesses are huge beneficiaries of of the crisis um and what the cri what the market does not reflect are small businesses private companies more levered businesses that don't have access to capital don't have the same dominance as the public market so a business like amazon which is a very big component of the market is you know is up 45 percent you know our strategy is to buy super high quality dominant companies that can withstand a pandemic or a dramatic movement in interest rates that are not particularly exposed to the economy and with item number four large barriers to entry this also gets at a company's moat where it's really difficult for other businesses to replicate what one business has going for them such as with railroad businesses like bill ackman has been successful with railroads like canadian pacific and buffett has been successful with railroads like burlington northern santa fe because you can't lay more railroad track really easily it requires a lot of investment capital to go into the railroad business and a lot of it has already been decided and determined and the rights to have railroads go in certain directions has already been established so that's where there's a huge barrier to entering the railroad business you can't just easily start a new railroad business tomorrow like you can a software business so that's one example of where railroads have a moat where they have a huge barrier to entry and this is a little different from a dominant market position in number three because that has more to do with being able to scale the business like how amazon can scale its amazon web services cloud business and that's where it gets a dominant market position in the cloud area and with the large bears to entry bill ackman also cites visa and mastercard as to how they were able to establish themselves in this area by saying the following you know i'd said previously i was asked by you know at a business school by a student what's the single best business in the world i said if you could own a royalty on people spending money like visa or mastercard the greatest business in the world if that ever became a public company you want to buy that company you ever could buy that company and with item number five high return on capital we can think of this in two ways as a business and also as an individual investor and for businesses they're prioritizing trying to generate returns on their equity as well as any debt that they take on so that they can lead to returns on invested capital or also known as roik and this applies to whether investors are trying to get a return out of fannie mae and freddie mac as he explains in the following clip or also if we as individual investors are trying to get the best return possible on any investment that we make as he also explains in the following in order for investors to invest in fannie and freddie particularly in light of the history of the government expropriation of two companies investors are going to have to earn an adequate return on the capital uh that they invest in order to invest i mean i've always had the view that why not own the best 10 or 11 investments as opposed to ideas 12 through 25 or 12 to 100 which is more typical you know i think there are very few great investments at any one time so the ability to concentrate is an enormously valuable asset of a strategy problem with it is most it leads to bumpier returns but if you want to make high rates of return over a long period of time it's hard to do that being very diversified i mean if you look through the 400 wealthiest people in the world most of them made their fortune in one business or a portfolio of two businesses very few made it in a portfolio of a hundred and with item number six and limited exposure to extrinsic risks we can't control this gets at a couple of things as well and one of them is that even during uncertainty we might expect higher premiums for investing in certain things so we need to be fully aware of the risks when it comes to any investment as he talks about in this clip and then also we should stick to our investing principles so that we don't go outside of the boundary of our knowledge so this is sticking to our circle of confidence and then we don't have as much risk of permanently losing money if we're fully aware of what we're getting into to begin with because if we're investing in things that we don't fully understand then that sets us up for a lot of risk of losing our money which we want to avoid as well your risk premium you know should go up when there's more uncertainty and the risk premium relates to the discount rate uh you know it's the risk free rate plus a risk premium that you use to discount the future and you know many rapidly growing companies you can't justify the value placing a multiple on next year's earnings which is sort of the convention for many kind of more mundane businesses you have to make certain expectations about a company's ability to become profitable and for those profits to grow at a pretty rapid rate to justify so you know many of the values or the collective values of where many of these companies were trading i think that is inevitably leads to more volatility when there's uncertainty and with item number seven of a strong balance sheet and the business doesn't need access to outside capital this refers to a business having enough cash to be able to withstand and survive any amount of economic turmoil and uncertainty that might happen so the more that businesses can afford any debt they have with plenty of cash flows coming in the stronger in a position they'll be because the more that companies are leveraged the more vulnerable they might be when they need capital at the most so during the 2020 downturn a lot of companies that didn't have enough cash suddenly found themselves struggling to pay rent or also afford their staff so a lot of people lost jobs and some businesses had to declare bankruptcy because the liquidity dried up and they didn't have cash coming in from actually people buying goods and services so he also talks about this a little bit too obviously you never want to let the liability side of the balance sheet grow too much so it's something that is concerning you know we are fortunate finding ourselves in a very low interest rate environment but it's something to to think about and be concerned about but it's sort of difficult to do the same kind of calculation of the leveraged nature of the united states unless you do a proper uh evaluation of the asset side of the balance sheet and finally with item number eight on excellent management and good governance i'm sure the ceo of netflix reed hastings is part of the reason why bill ackman was willing to invest over 1.1 billion dollars or 3.1 million shares worth of netflix and that's about nine percent of the pershing square portfolio so that's a huge amount that he invested in in q1 2022 and it's no wonder because there have been a lot of great things said about reed hastings and the way that he has been able to grow netflix so that's something to keep paying attention to as to seeing if that might be a business worth following or investing in potentially as well as with chipotle he was able to help that grow by also saying the following we bought a stake in chipotle at a time where the company was struggling a few years ago we put a few directors on the board we recruited a new ceo named brian nichol it's completely turned around the company the stock is you know almost tripled in the midst of a crisis and it just tells you that you know that's a lot more fun and it's a lot more profitable and i would say bet good for a lot more good for america than just simply being a passive stock picker and i'm sure that bill ackman looks for the same qualities and management that charlie munger does which is that management have integrity and talent because sometimes you need a really good leader to help a company to reach the next level and if you appreciated this eight step rundown of bill ackman's checklist please be sure to like and subscribe to my video and youtube channel because i greatly appreciate it and i'm sure all of these steps will help you be a better investor too thanks until next time you
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