저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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2021년 말 13F 공시 기준 슈퍼투자자 포트폴리오 변화를 정리한 영상이다. 결론: 슈퍼투자자들은 여전히 투자 기회를 찾고 있으며, 2021년 4분기는 강세장 정점일 수 있으나 기회는 존재한다. 워런 버핏: 포트폴리오 약 3,300억 달러로 증가. 쉐브론 약 10억 달러 추가(배당·에너지 가격 상승 기대), 애플 비중은 주가 상승으로 증가. 신규로 Nu Holdings(브라질·멕시코·콜롬비아 금융), 액티비전 블리자드(약 10억 달러), 리버티 미디어(F1, 약 1.3억 달러) 편입. 주택 관련(플로어앤드데코, 레스토레이션 하드웨어) 비중 확대, 마스터카드·비자 축소, 제약주 대거 매도. 현금은 약 1,500억 달러로 추정, 큰 매수 기회를 기다리는 것으로 해석. 찰리 멍거(Daily Journal): 알리바바 30만 주 추가, 약 4,000만 달러 마진 대출로 추가 매수. 알리바바는 포트폴리오 3위. 중국 경제 운영 방식과 리콴유 싱가포르에 대한 호감 언급. 그렉 알렉산더(Conifer): 알리바바 비중 20% 추가, 약 2.5억 달러 규모로 4위 보유 종목. 알리바바에 매우 강세. 모니시 파브라이: 알리바바 전량 매도 후 프로세스(Prosus)와 텐센트 노출 확대. 마이크론 추가, 세리타지 성장 부동산 대폭 축소. 프로세스 실제 규모는 추후 확인 필요. 가이 스피어: 4분기 포지션 변화 없음. 기술 및 벤처캐피털 투자 기업 연구 지속. 리루(Himalaya): 뱅크오브아메리카와 메타(페이스북) 추가. 마이크론 추가는 없음. 알리바바 관련 입장은 불분명하며 멍거에게 알리바바를 소개했을 가능성 언급. 빌 밀러: 매우 분산된 가치투자 스타일. 알리바바 약 8,000만 달러 보유(15위권), 메타 추가, 구글 축소. 메타 주가 하락 시 추가 매수 가능성 시사. 마이클 버리(Scion): 브리스톨마이어스스퀴브, 제너럴다이내믹스, 피델리티내셔널파이낸셜 매수. 록히드마틴을 제너럴다이내믹스로 교체, CVS 헬스 전량 매도. 2008년 이후 13년 강세장 정점 여부에 대한 시장의 의구심 언급. 종합: 고평가 구간이지만 실사를 통해 투자 기회를 찾을 수 있으며, 슈퍼투자자 포트폴리오 연구가 아이디어 제공에 유용하다.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and it's mid-february 2022 which means that fund managers and companies with assets under management of at least 100 million dollars had to disclose by now what their american listed equity positions were in accordance with the sec's 13 f filing rules which means at 45 days after the end of the quarter they need to publicly disclose what they were invested in so now we know what some super investors were invested in as of december 31 2021 potentially at peak bull market times so this is a window as to seeing how much investing activity they were willing to do or if there was basically no investing activity on behalf of some of these investors and the ones that i'll cover today include some of my favorites warren buffett charlie munger monish prabrai guy spear greg alexander as well as lee lou bill miller and michael burry and i'll just touch on some of what these super investors invested in and it's not a full comprehensive view into what they've invested in because they may have also made some international investments like monish for bry and guy spear did which we're not going to see on 13 f filings but this gives us a little bit of a clue as to what their investment trends might look like and so we can continue to study and try to see if some of the companies that they invested in might be things that could potentially become part of our circle of competence someday and if you also enjoy studying some of the best investors be sure to smash that like button try my hardest to study all these investors and each of your likes and subscribes goes a very long way with the youtube algorithm and i greatly appreciate it so let's get into it thanks first off with my homies q4 2021 portfolio went up by about 38 billion dollars in market value from 293 billion in q3 to about 331 billion in q4 and his positions increased from 43 to 44 and he had a net new three positions which i'll discuss briefly and the biggest observations i had about his top 10 holdings was that he added about a billion dollars worth of chevron so he's probably collecting some of that sweet dividend money as energy prices are going up in 2022 so gas companies are currently doing well and then the other observation i noticed was that his apple position increased not because he bought more apple but just probably because apple's share price went up so that means his position increased from about 43 of apple to 48 of apple in his berkshire hathaway equity positions so most of what buffett has seemingly been up to with adding or subtracting from the berkshire hathaway portfolio has been kind of minor so maybe it's been more of the work of ted and todd rather than the master doing a lot of investing in q4 but the net new holdings that he added seem to be in new holdings which is a banking and financial services firm that serves 48 million customers across brazil mexico and colombia so that's a billion there and then another billion into activision blizzard which we all know microsoft is trying to buy and it's a bit of a beleaguard video gaming company right now so maybe it's ripe for investing in because maybe there will be brighter days ahead for activision as well as he seemed to put about 134 million dollars into liberty media corp formula one which runs the fia formula one world championship so that seems to be gaining in popularity so across some of these net new positions these potentially could give us ideas of what we could invest in as well as how if we look at some of his other investing trends it seems like he's a little bit more bullish on some housing related companies because he added to his positions in floor and decor holdings as well as restoration hardware but then he's a little bit more bearish on other financial services companies and also pharma and some of these we see that he reduced his positions and mastercard and visa and then sold off a bunch of pharma companies so across these holdings overall i think that buffett is still biding his time and sitting on a predominant amount of cash like most likely it's still around 150 billion dollars so i think that buffett is waiting for a big buying opportunity in the markets before he deploys a lot of cash and i love charlie munger because he's like everyone's favorite curmudgeonly grandpa who tells it like it is and much like a honey badger doesn't care what you think and he's just gonna do what he wants to do and he doesn't need 45 days to release the daily journal corporations 13 f filing which came out only a few days after the end of the fourth quarter so we already know that much like i talked about in my video when this first came about is that he doubled down on alibaba by adding 300 000 shares and also as he discussed in the daily journal corporation's annual meeting on february 16 he took out about 40 million dollars of margin debt to be able to buy more alibaba because he thinks it's one of the better investment opportunities right now given current market conditions so he is totally all in on alibaba and i think that that's super admirable that he has so much conviction at 98 years young and he has a lot of admiration for how the chinese economy is run and he also loves lee kuan yew who he thinks turns singapore around into a really great country with great economic fundamentals so there's a lot we can learn about how charlie munger invests and we can see that alibaba is the third top most position in the daily journal corporations portfolio and then even more bullish than charlie is greg alexander which warren buffett also tremendously admires and on behalf of conifer management greg alexander added 20 to conifer's position of alibaba and now he has about a quarter of a billion dollars worth of alibaba as the fourth topmost position in conifer management so very interesting how both of these guys are super bullish on alibaba's future and unlike charlie munger and greg alexander monis probably of probably fun slash dalal street turned super bearish on alibaba because he completely sold out of it in favor of buying businesses that he considers to be superior to alibaba and that would be process which we won't find on his 13f filing but maybe it will be eventually on the shareholder report that sites like ticker might come across eventually but we know that he bought process because it has a substantial stake in tencent which he also considers superior to alibaba and you can learn more in my video about what i was able to uncover about process so far and there's way more to research if you're interested in either process and or tencent to understand why monas is so bullish on those companies and in addition he seemed to have added to his positions that are existing already in micron technology and also rain industries but he significantly reduced his position in cerritage growth properties so that seems to be basically in a nutshell what monash probably has been up to in q4 and i only wish that we could really know how much he invested in process because i know that monis probably likes to be heavily concentrated so eventually we might be lucky to find out how much he invested in that company so that'll be something to keep tracking and see how that performs over time and then with guy spear of aquamarine capital he seemed to just stay fully invested throughout q4 2021 and he neither added nor sold any position so for him he's just kind of maybe seeing where things are and this could be possibly because we could be at peak market conditions so maybe stocks can only go on sale from here on out so it doesn't surprise me that guy spare is just kind of keeping things the way they are and likely studying more technology companies and venture capital backed companies in order to figure out better future investments in the oasis of tech like i also talked about in my video where i reviewed what he said with the kolkata investors group so also very fascinating to study what guy spear is seeing in the markets right now and then in addition we can see with lee liu of himalaya capital that the only two positions he added to was in his positions in bank of america as well as facebook aka meta and both of these investors lee liu and guy spear didn't add to their existing micron technology investments unlike monish babri who seemed to be the only one who added to it and a few other super investors reduce their positions in micron so very interesting to keep studying what these investors might be looking into and the only other note i had that i'm wondering about is widely lou may not be as interested in investing in alibaba or maybe he's invested in alibaba in another kind of fund i don't know but if you know more about if lilu is invested in alibaba or not that would be interesting to know because i know that charlie munger also tremendously admires lilu and i can't help but believe that maybe lee liu exposed charlie munger to alibaba so i'm just kind of wondering if lilu has any thoughts about alibaba or not and feel free to let me know in the comments if you've come across anything with lilu and alibaba and then with bill miller of miller value partners he seems super diversified maybe one of the most diversified value investors i've seen across this group so it kind of reminds me of ben graham's style a little bit or maybe he's picking up a bunch of cigar butts who knows but either way i see that he's a little bit bullish like charlie munger in adding to a baba position because that's his 15th top position and he's got about 80 million dollars in baba right now and then he's kind of bullish on facebook like lee liu is in also adding to his meta position and in addition i noticed he's a little bit bearish on google so it's interesting so i'm kind of wondering given with meta's drop recently if he and li liu are going to be adding even more during q1 2022 to their meta positions because it has to be more on sale if they were willing to buy it at the prices in q4 then they should be likely to buy more meta in q1 because why wouldn't you if you believe in that company it's also something to study and keep track of and see where things go for those investors and then finally michael bury of scion asset management known for the big short during the great financial crisis and who also made out like a bandit with the bursting of the housing bubble and he's also the guy who's saying that the mother of all crashes is coming he seemed to make a bunch of moves during q4 where he bought a bunch of companies that i'm not super familiar with but you've probably heard of like bristol meyer squibb and general dynamics as well as fidelity national financial which is not to be confused with the brokerage firm fidelity investments and those are some of the companies that you can study if you're interested in some of them because he seemed to trade and sell out of lockheed martin one aerospace and defense company for another in buying general dynamics and he also completely sold out of cvs health so definitely interesting to study and see maybe actually some of his short moves might be more interesting than maybe some of his long moves because i know a lot of people like to track and see the latest of what michael bury might be up to because he's known for making some brilliant moves but right now a lot of people are sort of doubting his bubble bursting predicting abilities so let's see how michael bury fares and if he'll be right again this time around so whether or not q4 2021 comes to represent peak valuations in the 13-year bull market that's been in place since 2009 as we can see with the investing moves or lack thereof among these super investors many of them still found ways to invest even if it meant that not so many one-foot bars were available to jump over but maybe they had to hop over maybe three or four foot bars certainly not seven foot bars as warren buffett likes to avoid and overall we can see that even if valuations are tough to crack that there can still be investing opportunities if we're willing to do our due diligence and thoroughly research investing opportunities before we make any moves so and studying and emulating some of these super investors because they're some of the best at doing it so i think they give a lot of great ideas and having some things that we can learn and see if we'd also like to invest in till next time
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