저자: BartSmith · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 SEC의 ETF 불허 이후 6,500~7,500달러 박스권에 갇혀 있으나, 6,800달러 지지가 유지되는 한 상승 여지가 있고 기관 채택 신호가 나오면 추가 상승을 기대할 수 있다. [가격 흐름과 기술적 관점] 비트코인은 8,400달러까지 올랐다가 윙클보스 형제 ETF 거부 이후 7,500달러 부근으로 밀려났다. 6,800달러는 핵심 지지/저항선으로, 이 선이 무너지면 부정적이라고 본다. 저점을 높이고(higher lows) 고점을 돌파해야 진정한 반등으로 볼 수 있다는 기술적 기준을 제시했다. [SEC 거부의 의미] SEC 위원 중 1명만 반대했고, 나머지 3명은 유동성과 시장 조작 우려를 이유로 보류했다. 따라서 이는 완전한 거부가 아니라 우려 해소 후 추진 가능한 사안으로 해석된다. [거래량과 유동성] 미국 외 거래량이 대부분이지만 중요한 것은 미국 내 거래량이다. 시카고 선물(CME 등) 거래량은 일 4억 달러 수준으로 회복됐고, 여기에 현물 거래소 거래를 합치면 일 6억5천만 달러 수준이라고 언급했다. [상승 촉매 조건] 적격 보관기관(qualified custodian) 확대, 더 많은 은행의 선물 청산 참여가 중요하다. 대형 연기금·기금·보험사가 자산의 1%를 비트코인에 배분한다고 공시하면 강한 신호가 될 것이라고 봤다. 비트코인의 주식과의 상관관계가 낮아 포트폴리오 위험 분산 효과가 있다고 주장했다. [규제 관점] 더 많은 규제보다 스마트한 규제와 명확성이 필요하다는 입장이다. 소액(600달러 미만) 거래 자본이득 신고 면제 같은 세제 개선도 채택을 돕는다고 언급했다. [리스크] 기관이 아직 아무도 첫발을 떼지 않아 시장이 관망 상태이며, 채택은 장기적으로 진행될 것이라고 전망했다. [출연자 전망] 단기적으로는 6,800달러 지지 유지 시 반등 가능성, 중장기적으로는 기관 채택 확대를 낙관한다.
다듬은 글
Bitcoin bull thisis but this week the cryptocurrency could be dare we say back in Bitcoin purgatory Bitcoin fell below 8,000 after breaking through that key level one week ago this after the SEC rejected what would have been the first Bitcoin ETF Guster's now wondering if Bitcoin in Doom to be stuck in the 6 to 7 thousand range that had been in place starting mid-may our next guest though says the drop isn't actually bad for the cryptocurrency Bart Smith the head of digit digital asset at Susquehanna we call him Wall Street's crypto king welcome back thank you why is it not such bad news that this ETF was squashed so there's a couple of things when we I was on about three weeks ago and there were kind of two things we talked about DK and I kind of talked about how a lot of the traders we spoke with saw that 6800 level as kind of being something that needed to break through every time I got to 6800 it kind of petered out and and and rolled over Dan brought up a point that he didn't care about any rally because it was a bear market rally we continued to have lower highs and lower lows so it needed to break out of that so you you look forward to the announcement of a new Bitcoin ETF coming out so you look to this past month and you know there's a lot of enthusiasm around it it gets to six to eight hundred here from six to eight hundred right to seventy three hundred kind of gathers there and goes all the way up to eighty four hundred the Winklevoss ETF is denied and it kind of grinds back down to 7500 here so where are we today Dan's point still remains right we need to see higher highs and and lower and lower or higher lows and so the continued to break through and hold at 7500 bounce higher I think it probably is very bullish the technicians I talked to are concerned about 6800 that's the level where I think the breaks through it would be negative now as far as the the Bitcoin ETF denial there for commissioners one one was a dissenter right so commissioner hester basically said this is you know everything was put out there that need to be put out there the ETF should be approved there were three commissioners who were concerned about liquidity and and manipulation of the market so you have to address those concerns and move forward but it didn't go right down to 60 100 right it held at 6,500 where it is today and it probably rallies higher from here if there we're good news on the horizon what our bulls hoping for am i hoping for more regulation or less regulation we're adoption how do I get because when I talk to guys and I speak to global funds every day I want to know how people can get a little more liquidity in these names get in and out quicker and how they can have the right to trade it on their desk so I don't even know what I'm hoping for if I'm a bull right now so a lot of things we've talked about right a qualified custodian would be a big deal if more banks were clearing the futures which trade four hundred million dollars a day about another two hundred fifty million dollars a day in the exchanges that underlie them so there's you know there's six hundred and fifty million dollars a day in US liquidity there what would be a big bull if a big brand-name pension endowment foundation insurance company came out and said in a filing over the course of the last three months I took a 1% allocation of my equity risk bucket because Bitcoin basically has a zero correlation of stocks and by going 1% Bitcoin and 99% equities my risk profile is lower right like square is half as volatile as Bitcoin right so if I own $100 of Square and $50 a Bitcoin I basically got the same risk on so as soon as institutions start thinking about Bitcoin like that and not as this scary thing that needs to be regulated I mean it's about smart regulation it's not about more I don't think we need want more regulation I just think we want smart regulation and we want regulatory clarity real quick question about Bitcoin because one of the things that somebody pointed out months ago was a lack of volume and as it was plummeting volume completely dried up yes has the volume returned to give you the confidence that maybe it has sort of found that 6,800 bottom and that maybe it's gonna start rising again the volume it's certainly again there's as well as BK always points out the majority of this stuff happened majority the volume happens outside the US US volume is what I care about because that's what's gonna get a Bitcoin ETF in u.s.
institutions into Bitcoin that that has been pretty consistently at four hundred million dollars a day it had dipped down to two hundred we're kind of bottomed out and now it's right back up to forty million dollars a day see FEC me futures combined six last seven days over four hundred million dollars a day so it's you know four million dollars is not nothing it's enough that a big insurance company or CalPERS or a state you know could put a little bit of money in there and I think that would be the sign that you know what I've got to get in now cuz right now I think every institution is looking on the dance floor and nobody's dancing and no one wants to be the first person out there there's nobody done that I mean circling for a long time nobody's even taking a 1% position I don't I'm not saying I'm talking about someone who's a big break yeah I'm so annoying I haven't seen a filing where someone has said you know what a big brand name that has a 1% filing in in the futures and in the absence of a qualified custodian they can't hold spot so so I think that that's gonna be a catalyst I mean you know there's other things too if the IRS had a de minimis tax exemption for transactions under $600 where you don't have to report capital gains that would be a big thing because then people might want to buy you know their McDonald's with a Bitcoin right now if I buy McDonald's with a Bitcoin I have to keep track of what gains I have on that and report that to the government like that's an obstruction so things like that that are gonna take a long time to work out everyone wants it fast and now it's the society we live in but this is a long game and I think that a lot of things are happening out there where people see the opportunity and we're going to continue to see institutional adoption and the plumbing get built so that that can happen you
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