저자: BrianKelly · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인 랠리는 실제 상승장의 초입으로 보이지만, ETF 승인 지연·거부 시 과열 후 조정 위험이 있어 단기 진입은 신중해야 한다. 비트코인 랠리 평가: 최근 상승은 ETF 기대에 따른 것으로, 과거 대비 이미 크게 오른 상태이다. ETF 리스크: SEC의 ETF 거부나 승인 지연이 발생하면 자금이 비트코인에서 이탈할 수 있다. 8월 ETF 출시를 기대하고 베팅하는 것은 매우 조심해야 한다고 강조했다. 과거 사례: 작년 윙클보스 ETF 거부 때 비트코인은 약세를 보였으나 알트코인은 상승했다. 이번에도 ETF 지연 시 자금이 알트코인으로 이동할 수 있다고 봤다. 알트코인 흐름: 이더리움, 리플 등은 비트코인 강세 기간 동안 횡보했다. 자금은 먼저 비트코인과 이더리움으로 들어간 뒤 알트코인으로 순환하는 구조다. 규제 및 ICO: 이더리움이 ICO 성공 사례 없이도 알트코인 순환을 이끌 수 있으며, 규제 명확화가 필요하다고 봤다. ETF 성격: 밴에크 비트코인 ETF는 주당 20만 달러로 설정돼 소액 투자자를 배제하는 구조이며, 기관 및 헤지펀드의 진입 통로가 될 것으로 보았다. 소매용 ETF는 2019년 이후 가능성이 있다고 전망했다. 유동성: 약 60억 달러 수준의 자금 유입으로도 비트코인 가격을 움직일 수 있는 상황이다. 출연자 개인 행동: 브라이언 켈리는 오늘 일부 비트코인을 매도해 차익을 실현했다고 밝혔다. 장기 견해와 단기 트레이딩을 구분했다.
다듬은 글
so is the Bitcoin rally for real our very own crypto baller says there is one more key hurdle Bitcoin needs to overcome Brian Kelly joins us at the plasma to tell us what that is hi beaks hey Melissa so yeah these are the hurdles that Bitcoin has to get through right so this to me feels like a very real rally feels like we're at the beginning stages of another bull market that's my view on it however we've had a tremendous run up because of the etf that bob just talked about and it's all been in Bitcoin so the hurdle that Bitcoin has to get through is what if this ETF is either rejected the sec ask people to withdraw the application or it's delayed I think some people in the market are under the impression that you could have this ETF come in August I would be very cautious making that bet particularly after the run now what's interesting remember last year when we had the ETF the wincle by ETF came our was rejected it actually boosted altcoins so we've seen Bitcoin outperform altcoins have been flat coins like aetherium coins like ripple dot type of thing have been flat because all the money's been flowing into Bitcoin so this could mean that all coins if the ETF is delayed you could see money flow out of Bitcoin it into the others so let's just take a look at the performance here let me hit clear so we don't have any of those lines and then we'll look at the next chart this is what I'm talking about see how tightly correlated they are here and then all of a sudden this month Bitcoin really starts to outperform and that's all ETF performance so if you're looking at it today and you're saying hey I want to get in the Bitcoin I'd be cautious getting into it at these levels if you're betting on a ETF coming out anytime soon I think pique should come over it'd be kind of awkward if we do we're not afraid of awkward the differentiation in trade between Bitcoin and the rest of the coins is it perhaps because people are getting ready to reload on the other coins you have to transfer money from Fiat into Bitcoin in order to buy the alt coins that can be part of it and you you know you'll see really the initial part is you get bit corner aetherium those are the easiest biggest things to buy and yeah then you transfer and buy the all coins this ETF story has caught a lot of steam though and I think that's really what got people into it but there's no question you could see that money rotate back into the odds doesn't if you're for a theory and really to catch up wouldn't it need a lot of these i ciose to sort of come to fruition and we need regulation to sort of lift its head up a little therefore for that to occur I don't think etherium has to have a lot of icos come to fruition I mean I think something like yeah as long as the augur right that is the new one that has been built on top of the Theo yet that's actually proven to be pretty well so that's kind of a proof of concept I think that's enough to get a theory we don't count so when you talk about a Bitcoin ETF is that gonna be you think primarily a retail product and how much retail money do you need to move Bitcoin which is now one hundred and thirty some-odd billions yeah cap it will unlikely be a retail product the Vanek product is priced at 200 thousand dollars a share specifically set to kind of weed out a retail client I think maybe hue 1 or I'm sorry not q1 but 2019 we could probably have a retail facing ETF and specifically on how much it needs you need to move Bitcoin right now it doesn't take as much as it did back in January or February even though liquidity is great you can still move it around quite a bit I mean listen JPMorgan did I did an estimate back when Bitcoin back November when Bitcoin went from 8,000 to 20,000 that was about 6 billion dollars that came in and it moved it that much so it wouldn't take too much I mean 6 billions a lot to me but not to somebody like died I mean what you say about weeding out the retail investor why would you do that especially when I get that we want institutional players and I get van eck is the you know has a lot of massive institutional products or at least products that are large enough liquidity for institutions to trade them but isn't this really about getting easy access and simplifying the process yeah I agree you know I can't speak for vain act but my understanding is the sec put out this list of 31 different things you had to accomplish and one of them was they wanted to protect the smaller retail investment so their next response as I understand it was let's make the share price that's so high that's prohibitively high for a retail investor this would be a very easy way for institutions and hedge funds to get in because you saw the custodial issue right so they don't actually have to deal with it themselves right they could just outsource that to whatever ETF company that's right the problem is the custard will issue it's still there it's still there yeah but that's also early people that are betting that ETF is coming like soon I think that's unlikely because there isn't a really good customer your solution may be q4 this year okay beakers thank you my pleasure I'm Kelly our crypto a baller right I can't ask Brian a Kel Brian a question because we could buy the guests there but if he were if we were playing the game with Brian traded or faded like we did at the top of the show what Bitcoin Bitcoin I think Brian why can't we say faded I'm already oh wait there is oh you know I did sell some Bitcoin today I'm a trader in this it's not necessarily reflection on what I think about Bitcoin in the long run but today I took some off the table I mean it's been a great event welcome back very much Brian Kelly
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