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it's been a heck of a week to watch and even though there are all these bad news headlines that are out there the markets are doing really well NASDAQ up by more than five percent is this a turning point is this a head fake is it just because there's so many people who are out on vacation right now what do you think but first you're having a great time so thank you for making us laugh it's good on a Friday morning to laugh like this um look I think it's a combination of a relief rally and lower yields that's what has been driving it but the next few days especially for the NASDAQ and on the back of the snap results are going to be absolutely critical so the next few days are going to be very important determining what happens next what do you think of the snap news is that indicative of much more than just issues at snap oh yeah because the user base increased significantly and yet their revenues were flat so it suggests that there's something going on in the business that is not generating revenues like it used to and the questions oh go ahead go ahead I mean I think what you just were about to say I think the question that all of us have is are we seeing a significant softening in Enterprise advertising because if we are then that's going to impact the other names in that space that's what I was wondering if they're if they're citing increased competition who's who's the increased competition they they also talked about some of these changes they made on their own platform that's trying to figure out how much of this is self-inflicted how much of this is the broader advertising Market what's Your Gut so I think it's broader I mean we're going to get the PMI data today the PMI data that came out this morning in Europe was awful um there are there are signs that the global economy is slowing in a rapid fashion and central banks are hiking and doing QT into the slowing economy and that just heightens the policy mistake that we're in the middle of with respect to central banks is it going to be effective in terms of its intended goals for the these rate hikes going after inflation you think it'll slow down yeah I think inflation has peaked in the U.S um at least for the next three to four months we got to see how sticky some elements are but the problem is not that inflation is going to come down I mean that's a really good thing the problem is that your face is going to come down with growth probably going into recession and that's not good news hey Muhammad the uh the next 10 percent in the s p and no one should ever answer a question like this but the probability that the next 10 percent takes us up to it's at 39.98 so it would take us up to over forty three hundred forty four hundred or so on the S P that possibility from here versus going back to the June 16th low of 36.39 what is more likely in your view as far as the next 10 percent because I can just tell you I mean the consensus I'd say 90 of the people we talked to say the next move is going to be down to the 35-36 range and I just get uncomfortable even though the vix hasn't hit those extreme levels it makes me uncomfortable that that all the experts say we need to go back down and maybe make new lows so so Joe you've got to define a time period here are we talking about the next couple of months are we talking by the end of the year the infinity what is the what do we hit first 4 400 or 3600 you don't need a time on that I don't care when it is just what's next um we'll I agree with the 90 that you've cited look we have played out interest rate risk we haven't yet laid out with session or credit risk and that's going to impact equities do you ever get bullish during the finance during the during the pandemic you never did get posted we were already all the way back almost stamp go back to CNBC in April and you'll see that that statement was incorrect Joe I I was there I got so much Twitter hate mail from challenging you on those things I can go back and find it Bahamut but go ahead so at this point you're saying that you're you're in the 90 uh that says that we go back to 3 600 first I am because I'm seeing the economy slow and I think the FED has no choice but to hit the brakes because it is so late and the consequences of that is going to be pressure on earnings hey Muhammad what do you mean we've been you know we always have these crypto conversations we've seen crypto actually move higher recently I don't know if you think that's a reflection also of the just the market that's moved back and forth here we're up now over 23 20 basically 2300 20 23 500 basically uh what do you think that says if it says anything says two things one I think it is moving with what has been a relaxation in financial conditions over the last two weeks and that's Health crypto but it's saying something else is that a lot of people think that the second or third depending on how you count crypto winter is now behind us that the damage has been absorbed that there's been a flushing out if you like of excesses and now we have a better base to go forward
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