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okay well uh let's welcome on our first guest in the program Ed yini is president at yini research he's joining us right now to uh take some questions and run us through what he's making of things Ed great to have you with us here on the program appreciate your time here on CNBC TV8 uh let me Begin by sort of putting to you and asking you rather two things one we got a very strong rally in the US the nasc was up about 2% and I was saying earlier that didn't look like it had too many fundamental underpinnings it looked a mix of technical seasonality etc etc would you agree with it and that's one and second is midweek we get this meeting between President Biden and G how important is it going to be go on well I mean starting with the meeting I think it's extremely important and I think the fact that their their meeting indicates that we're still able to talk to one another hopefully bring some of the tensions that are occurring in Asia downwards and uh also deal with some of the other other geopolitical issues so any any lines of communication is a good thing and uh I think the market will will welcome that kind of conversation uh with regards to uh the the rally we've had it's been in really intense it's uh the S&P 500 is up over 7% since late October and I think the reason for that is uh investors have come around to believe and I agree that the FED is done that inflation is likely to continue to moderate that the economy which is very strong in the fourth quarter is likely to cool down somewhat but not go into a a recession and I think we found buyers for the bonds somewhere between four and a half and 5% I think as long as the bond yield stabilizes below 5% and as long as oil prices don't keep taking the dive here because that's an indication of what's going on in the global economy I think the stock market can move higher I'm still expecting 4600 on the S&P 500 by year end and I think next year we'll go even higher right hi Ed good morning and thanks so much for joining in here uh you know if the global markets are going to do well what about an emerging market like India we have obviously a couple of domestic factors like State elections that will play out but in a good Global Market environment and with the bond yields as well as crude prices being well behaved or what are the chances we move higher and outperform from here let's start with the global bad news the bad news is China's economy is going to continue to be challenged by the bursting of their property bubble uh Europe has some challenges Europe is in a recession a mild recession in my opinion uh the US growth rate is going to slow but we're not going to go into recession but the good news for emerging markets particularly India is that uh in global interest rates uh may have less upward pressure now that the FED is done in my opinion and indeed the other uh big issue of course is oil prices it was only a few weeks ago that everybody was fretting that the price of oil could go up to like a $100 a barrel and I think the markets has demonstrated that just the global economy isn't strong enough to handle that and we may very well be in an environment where the price foils around 7585 a barrel and so I think both of those developments are good for for India and other Emerging Markets as well as the dollar uh probably isn't going to continue to strengthen but I don't think it's going to weaken a lot but so there there there's three happy developments I think for emerging markets broadly speaking but specifically for India well we've been hearing so much Happy Diwali happy development sound better when they rhyme with Happy Diwali as well and um you know just wanted your thoughts on two things in particular one you said that the global market believes that the US is done raising rates so the question now is when do they take the First Rate cut how long is it going to be a pause mode before that First Cut Is happened and secondly what do you make of the geopolitical situation things haven't gotten better from uh you know the time we last spoke but global commodity prices suggest that maybe it's localized and limited so they're probably not as big a risk as they were earlier thought to be your thoughts on both those uh both these two things well I I think with regards to uh the perceptions of uh interest rates and when they're going to go down uh I'm I'm in no rush to see interest rates decline I think I think one of the things we're learning here is that the US economy uh is able to uh handle four and a half to 5% bonds but that was where bond yields were before the great financial crisis and uh for several years we had four and a half to 5 perc in the 2003 four five six seven we had that kind of range and the economy did fine and the stock market did fine so in some ways we're back to the old normal the abnormal was what we had between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis so I again I don't need the interest rates to go down for the stock market to go up I think just having them stabilize is a is an important thing the geopolitical issues are very disturbing very unsettling um but so far the uh the war between Hamas Israel seems to be staying localized there's still some skirmishing up in the north with and of course there's still issues for the US with Iranian Iranian surrogates uh attacking US forces in in in Iraq and and Syria um but so far it looks as though nobody really wants to see this thing uh just blow blow out of proportion and wants to keep it as localized as as possible on all sides and so that's that's a good development uh unfortunately the world's kind of gotten used to the confrontation between Russia and the Ukraine and so I don't know that that has any macro significance but you're right you look at the commodity prices and you know if that's all the news you got it would be hard to imagine that there's this kind of GE geopolitical turmoil going on given the the weakness in commodity prices and the calm all right uh Ed we leave it there uh so I mean the geopolitics of it is interesting isn't it but the the hot Wars that you described Russia Ukraine Hamas and uh Israel and then there is the Cold War which is in a way the new Cold War China and us and what happens with regards to that middle of the week when the two presidents meet I think that'll be equally significant as well thanks very much Ed great to have you with us as always we'll take
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