저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 금리가 5% 아래에서 안정되고 유가가 과도하게 떨어지지 않는 한 미국 증시는 추가 상승 여력이 있으며, 연말 S&P500 4600을 전망한다. 증시 랠리 분석: 나스닥 약 2% 상승은 펀더멘털보다는 기술적 요인과 계절성 영향이 커 보인다는 입장이다. S&P500은 10월 말 이후 7% 이상 상승했다. 랠리 원인: 투자자들이 연준의 금리 인상이 끝났다고 믿기 시작했고, 인플레이션이 계속 완화될 것이며, 4분기 강했던 경제가 약간 식되 경기침체로 가지는 않을 것이라는 기대가 반영됐다. 미국 채권 수익률 4.5~5% 구간에서 매수세가 확인됐다. 금리 조건: 10년물 금리가 5% 아래에서 안정되는 것이 중요하며, 금리 인하 자체는 증시 상승의 전제가 아니라고 본다. 2003~2007년처럼 4.5~5% 금리 환경은 정상 상태이며 경제와 증시가 잘 버틸 수 있다. 유가 전망: 유가는 배럴당 75~85달러 선에서 머물 가능성이 있으며, 유가가 계속 급락하는 것은 세계 경제 둔화 신호로 경계해야 한다. 중국·유럽 리스크: 중국은 부동산 거품 붕괴로 경기 도전이 지속되고, 유럽은 경미한 경기침체 상태라고 평가한다. 미국 성장률은 둔화되나 침체는 아닐 것으로 본다. 신흥국(인도) 전망: 연준 금리 인상 종료로 글로벌 금리 상방 압력이 줄고, 유가 안정과 달러 강세 제한이 인도 등 신흥국에 긍정적이라고 봤다. 달러는 더 강해지지 않겠지만 크게 약해지지도 않을 것으로 본다. 지정학 리스크: 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁은 국지화된 상태로 보이며, 시장이 우크라이나-러시아 대립에 어느 정도 익숙해져 거시적 영향은 제한적이라고 평가한다. 다만 상품가격 약세를 보면 지정학 리스크가 과대평가됐을 수 있다. 이란 대리세력의 미군 공격은 여전히 위험 요인이다. 미중 관계: 중순 바이든-시진핑 회담은 긴장 완화 신호로 긍정적이며, 미중 신냉전 구도가 중요한 변수라고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
okay well uh let's welcome on our first guest in the program Ed yini is president at yini research he's joining us right now to uh take some questions and run us through what he's making of things Ed great to have you with us here on the program appreciate your time here on CNBC TV8 uh let me Begin by sort of putting to you and asking you rather two things one we got a very strong rally in the US the nasc was up about 2% and I was saying earlier that didn't look like it had too many fundamental underpinnings it looked a mix of technical seasonality etc etc would you agree with it and that's one and second is midweek we get this meeting between President Biden and G how important is it going to be go on well I mean starting with the meeting I think it's extremely important and I think the fact that their their meeting indicates that we're still able to talk to one another hopefully bring some of the tensions that are occurring in Asia downwards and uh also deal with some of the other other geopolitical issues so any any lines of communication is a good thing and uh I think the market will will welcome that kind of conversation uh with regards to uh the the rally we've had it's been in really intense it's uh the S&P 500 is up over 7% since late October and I think the reason for that is uh investors have come around to believe and I agree that the FED is done that inflation is likely to continue to moderate that the economy which is very strong in the fourth quarter is likely to cool down somewhat but not go into a a recession and I think we found buyers for the bonds somewhere between four and a half and 5% I think as long as the bond yield stabilizes below 5% and as long as oil prices don't keep taking the dive here because that's an indication of what's going on in the global economy I think the stock market can move higher I'm still expecting 4600 on the S&P 500 by year end and I think next year we'll go even higher right hi Ed good morning and thanks so much for joining in here uh you know if the global markets are going to do well what about an emerging market like India we have obviously a couple of domestic factors like State elections that will play out but in a good Global Market environment and with the bond yields as well as crude prices being well behaved or what are the chances we move higher and outperform from here let's start with the global bad news the bad news is China's economy is going to continue to be challenged by the bursting of their property bubble uh Europe has some challenges Europe is in a recession a mild recession in my opinion uh the US growth rate is going to slow but we're not going to go into recession but the good news for emerging markets particularly India is that uh in global interest rates uh may have less upward pressure now that the FED is done in my opinion and indeed the other uh big issue of course is oil prices it was only a few weeks ago that everybody was fretting that the price of oil could go up to like a $100 a barrel and I think the markets has demonstrated that just the global economy isn't strong enough to handle that and we may very well be in an environment where the price foils around 7585 a barrel and so I think both of those developments are good for for India and other Emerging Markets as well as the dollar uh probably isn't going to continue to strengthen but I don't think it's going to weaken a lot but so there there there's three happy developments I think for emerging markets broadly speaking but specifically for India well we've been hearing so much Happy Diwali happy development sound better when they rhyme with Happy Diwali as well and um you know just wanted your thoughts on two things in particular one you said that the global market believes that the US is done raising rates so the question now is when do they take the First Rate cut how long is it going to be a pause mode before that First Cut Is happened and secondly what do you make of the geopolitical situation things haven't gotten better from uh you know the time we last spoke but global commodity prices suggest that maybe it's localized and limited so they're probably not as big a risk as they were earlier thought to be your thoughts on both those uh both these two things well I I think with regards to uh the perceptions of uh interest rates and when they're going to go down uh I'm I'm in no rush to see interest rates decline I think I think one of the things we're learning here is that the US economy uh is able to uh handle four and a half to 5% bonds but that was where bond yields were before the great financial crisis and uh for several years we had four and a half to 5 perc in the 2003 four five six seven we had that kind of range and the economy did fine and the stock market did fine so in some ways we're back to the old normal the abnormal was what we had between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis so I again I don't need the interest rates to go down for the stock market to go up I think just having them stabilize is a is an important thing the geopolitical issues are very disturbing very unsettling um but so far the uh the war between Hamas Israel seems to be staying localized there's still some skirmishing up in the north with and of course there's still issues for the US with Iranian Iranian surrogates uh attacking US forces in in in Iraq and and Syria um but so far it looks as though nobody really wants to see this thing uh just blow blow out of proportion and wants to keep it as localized as as possible on all sides and so that's that's a good development uh unfortunately the world's kind of gotten used to the confrontation between Russia and the Ukraine and so I don't know that that has any macro significance but you're right you look at the commodity prices and you know if that's all the news you got it would be hard to imagine that there's this kind of GE geopolitical turmoil going on given the the weakness in commodity prices and the calm all right uh Ed we leave it there uh so I mean the geopolitics of it is interesting isn't it but the the hot Wars that you described Russia Ukraine Hamas and uh Israel and then there is the Cold War which is in a way the new Cold War China and us and what happens with regards to that middle of the week when the two presidents meet I think that'll be equally significant as well thanks very much Ed great to have you with us as always we'll take
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