저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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미국 경제는 침체 없이 회복력이 강해 2020년대가 'roaring 2020s'로 이어질 것이며, S&P500 주당이익이 2030년경 450달러 이상으로 늘고 PER 22배를 적용하면 10,000 부근이 가능하다고 봄. 금은 주식과 장기적으로 비슷하게 움직이며 중앙은행·중국·유럽 수요로 계속 매수될 것으로 전망. 비트코인은 위험선호 자산으로 고점 대비 약 21,000달러 하락 상태. 미중 정상회담 기대와 관세 불확실성은 시장에 긍정적으로 봄.
다듬은 글
Let's not just focus on the dayto-day. Let's welcome in Ed Yardi. He is president and founder of Yardenni Research. Uh Ed, um you can comment on what you heard from the president or we can just move on to the markets. I know from a market perspective, you think both gold and the S&P 500 can each hit 10,000 by the end of the decade.
I'm not a math wiz, but that's only about four years and what two and a half months from now, right? Why so bullish? Well, look, on the stock side, uh the economy has proven to be remarkably resilient. Uh we've seen three years now where we've had the most uh widely anticipated recession of all times that just didn't happen.
Notwithstanding all the shocks that the economy uh dealt with and continued to grow, I think the economy is going to remain resilient. I I think we may we may continue to have these rolling recessions that affect different sectors at different times, but the overall economy I think may very well continue to grow through the end of the decade, which I, by the way, call a roaring 2020s because so far so good.
It's it has been roaring. Uh I I look for earnings to uh get down up to over $450 a share by the end of the decade and apply a 22 multiple and you get to something close to 10,000. uh gold uh and stocks have a very interesting relationship. On a short-term basis, they're inversely related, but on a longer term basis, their trends have been nearly identical.
And uh I think uh gold is increasingly viewed as um the safe uh diversifying asset that you want to have in a portfolio. It's definitely a riskoff asset, whereas Bitcoin is proving it to be more of a risk on asset. Yeah, Bitcoin's made a lot of people a lot of money, but it is down about 21,000 right now from its highs.
So, you've got to be willing to hodal, as they say, hold on for dear life and kind of ride that train while gold just kind of quietly continues to make new highs almost every single day. It's been remarkable to watch. And by the way, silver, too. Correct. Well, I think there is a lot of wealth on the global basis, and I think a lot of that wealth wants to be diversified.
Stock prices have soared around the world. We've had a global bull market. It hasn't been just the United States. People have a lot of wealth tied up in the markets now and they want to diversify and gold has kind of been sitting there for a while, but clearly gold is also a very good hedge against geopolitical risk.
Maybe gold's down today on just some profit taking. Maybe it's because Trump is talking about getting together with Putin NZ. Uh but uh central banks I think are going to continue to buy gold. I think Chinese investors who lost a lot of money in the property market in China and have gotten whips out in the stock market there.
I think they're buyers of gold. And I think Europeans uh are buying gold. Um you know this it's kind of like Bitcoin. Um there's there's no interest, there's no dividends, there's no earnings. So you you can almost imagine whatever you want to imagine that it goes to. But the reality is there's clearly a global demand for both kinds of assets.
You know, you heard President Trump mention the possibility of a meeting with President Xi of China saying they want to meet, we want to meet uh talking about hopefully there at some point an end to this war. Let's go to the former Ed. And you know, listen, neither of us is geopolitical strategists, but if we get that that meeting and a photo op and the two Trump and she are smiling and there's a favorable deescalation to trade, is is that another leg up to the market or has that in your mind already been priced in?
Well, I think ever since uh we had liberation day uh in what was it? April 2nd and that was followed by annihilation days uh and Trump then postponed the tariffs. Uh there's uh the markets come to conclude that uh Trump's going to get this thing resolved one way or another in a way that's uh good for the United States.
And if it's good for the United States, it's probably going to be good for some of our tra for many of our trading partners. But it's still an ongoing uh situation, ongoing talks. Um we have yet to hear the Supreme Court rule on whether these tariffs are even constitutional. So that that could really start to uh stir things up may whenever they they get around to it.
Uh but all in all, I think uh the president's successes on the international stage are a positive for everybody and certainly a positive for the stock
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