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the first thing you need to know is that playing this earnings game is much harder than it looks although people think hey i can just get in this i can do this i have a computer listen to me companies are not horses with ceos as jockeys and the enterprise is the horse when you go to the track you go to wager and winners now unlike the podiums there are lots of winners in this earnings season in fact we've got many more winners and losers so you think it'd be easier than betting on a race but that's not the case though because the winners tend to surprise you while the losers just show up and no more what defines a winner in this earnings period well if we could do it with google wow what a quarter take united parcel okay with a stock that's vaulted more than 10 percent today if you google you'll see the stock that's up the most now this was seemingly in response to an amazing set of numbers right that's what you think it was right that's what we heard all day but that's not what drove up ups at all sure the gross margins were terrific the pricing per package was unbelievably good however what you needed to know about ups is that the new ceo carol tomay has repeatedly been dismissed just dismissed on wall street as someone who wouldn't be able to tame the beast that is the unwieldy package delivery company with more than 400 000 employees now it didn't matter that she's been on the board since 2003 so she knew what had gone wrong didn't matter that she was the dominant cfo of her time at home depot tomate came on our show after the last quarter which was widely panned right and promised that from now on she beat all her targets it was over the missing was done well that's exactly what she did for many stocks beating the numbers doesn't mean much they'll do it all the time check out proctor you have coca-cola yeah i beat the numbers the numbers were better than expected stocks do nothing in other words ups worked today because of the surprise factor people betting against cal to me they were wrong see this is part of the reason why alphabet sword tonight too when it reported an out of this world top and bottom line beat based on surprises and two divisions people think are no good youtube and the endlessly underrated google cloud which i keep telling you is good but microsoft got hit but it delivered a very good quarter that was better than expected but not insanely better because of the overrating of its cloud which only grew at 50 just matching the previous quarter see it's surprise what matters is the game is harder than it looks because of the surprise factor everyone knew that microsoft had eventual results whereas lots of investors simply couldn't imagine alphabet doing this well even with its advertising business making incredible comeback courtesy of the great reopening in short you want to look for situations where you believe the ceo but you know lots of others don't and you want to believe that key business lines will be sharply better than expected but others don't believe so now you know what i think i think you got another one coming up i think you got to set up exactly right when you're thinking about apple tomorrow see tim cook's a chronically underestimated ceo with a mosaic of businesses cell phones wearables computers the service revenue stream all under one roof the secret sauce for the last 20 odd years apple's been a consumer-oriented tech company with a few notable exceptions they've been shut out of the enterprise now though they've got it in in the rise of remote work is basically a trojan horse for apple because so many senior executives use apple machines at home and for the last year their home has been their office if you think i'm any different you think i don't have apple at home but this is what you get okay because this is the enterprise you even got one apple here yeah but see it's the enterprise oddly i suspect facebook's got a similar situation you know they're obviously not good apples polar opposite when it comes to privacy when apple decided to allow its users to opt out of tracking facebook slammed them for hurting small business yeah yeah bart san miguel's tracking everybody in the world while i like facebook and genuinely appreciate what they've done for small business that argument's totally disingenuous small business doesn't track our online behavior for heaven's sake but the endless fouls called against facebook gives you an opportunity to buy the stock at a discount as long as facebook doesn't cite apple's policy is a reason to cut a forecast i'm betting they won't although when it comes to facebook anything's possibl
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