원문 보기
the only reason the stock market has rallied is because the economy is so weak see what's driving the stock market rally is the idea that because the economy is so weak the FED is going to Pivot that the FED is not going to keep raising interest rates it's going to be forced to stop hiking rates and maybe cut rates to stimulate the economy so the reason the stock market has rallied is because we're in a recession so it's hard for Biden to kind of point to the stock market as indicative of his success when it actually is indicative of his failure I'm 59 years old right and I have never in my life heard a recession defined any other way other than two negative quarters of GDP that's the definition because recession refers to whether or not the GDP is expanding or Contracting it doesn't refer to the level of unemployment or the level of inflation it's specifically is there to reference what is tapping with GDP right that's how they Define economic growth I mean I have a lot of problems with GDP but that's how recession has been defined recovery is when the GDP is expanding recession is when it's Contracting that's it and if you've got two negative quarters in a row you're in a recession now maybe it's a shallow recession maybe it's going to be over quickly now I don't think so I think we're just early in this recession I think the third quarter is going to be even weaker than the first two in fact I think they're going to revise the second quarter number even lower and I was not surprised by that negative number I expected it and in fact last year I expected the first quarter to be negative I was forecasting at the U.S economy would be in recession in the first half of 2022 back in 2021 and by the way back in 2021 I was also forecasting that inflation was not transitory and that it would get worse I said inflation would strengthen and the economy would weaken we would have stagflation and that is exactly what we have and you know even fed share Powell they got to him they were able to intimidate him so anybody who thinks the FED is independent now you have chair Powell claiming that two negative quarters is not a recession and we're not in a recession two negative quarters is just a minimum for a recession we're going to get a third negative quarter we're going to get a fourth negative quarter we're going to be seeing Contracting GDP for years this recession is just getting started and the increase in unemployment is coming people that are pointing to the low unemployment rate and saying this means we're not in recession that's nonsense unemployment is a lagging indicator the unemployment rate is going to rise as the recession continues but also Megan they're trying to claim that we're not in a research session because we have a strong labor market we don't we have a very weak labor market real wages are collapsing wages have never really Fallen this much in real terms in history that is a weak labor market when you have a strong labor market workers can demand raises they have power they can go to their bosses and say I want more money or I'm going to quit and take another job that's not happening workers are being forced to work for pay cuts in fact a lot of workers are taking second jobs and their jobs because they can't make ends meet on their main job that is a weak labor market the bear Market rally notwithstanding we're still in a bear Market but um yeah well first of all it's not just 20 or 30 years I mean it's kind of always been described as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP and we didn't hear differently until about I don't know like less than a week before they released the official numbers for the second quarter and obviously the Biden Administration was leaked that GDP report they knew in advance that it was going to be negative and it wasn't until then that they came out with this ridiculous explanation or excuse that two negative quarters of GDP do not constitute a recession because prior to that knowledge you know they were pretending we had a strong economy they kept talking about how strong the economy was well it's been in recession the entire year you know I guess they they believe if you repeat a lie often enough people will believe it but imagine if Donald Trump tried to do the same thing what if Trump were president and we had two quarters of negative GDP growth and then Donald Trump tried to redefine recession to claim that we were not in one do you think the media would go along with that it is the technical definition that's the definition I mean let's say we had inflation and a strong labor market which is what they're pretending if inflation nation was nine percent workers would be getting twelve percent pay raises they would be ahead of inflation the fact that they're accepting raises that are much smaller than inflation shows that this is a weak labor market workers have no power they are forced to accept lower wages because the labor market is so weak it is about to rise because you know a lot of companies were reluctant to lay people off over the past six months they were hopeful that what they were looking at was a temporary downturn they were hoping that inflation was transitory that we would avoid recession because employers don't want to lay people off it's expensive you know you train people you invest money in your your workers you don't want to just get rid of them unless you really know you need to but I think now that the economy is so bad and it's obviously getting worse I think a lot of these companies that were holding on to their workers I think they're going to start letting them go and so you're going to see a big increase in layoffs we're already seeing that in first time jobless claims which are now above two hundred and fifty thousand they actually peaked above 260 000 the prior week this is the highest since the fall of last year that's the leading indicator unlike the unemployment rate which is a a lagging indicator and the idea that Biden created any jobs I mean that's ridiculous you didn't create anything you basically had a bunch of jobs before he became president where we told all the workers temporarily leave your job go home don't work we're going to pay you a bunch of money not to work so sit at home and stay at home now Biden walks into office and now we tell all those workers hey you know the jobs that we told you to leave you got to go back to them so people are going back to the jobs they temporarily left and now Biden is saying oh look at me I created all these jobs yes and created anything I'm sure if Biden wasn't President we actually might have actually created jobs instead because of his policies we probably have fewer jobs and the jobs that we have pay less the wage price spiral is another fiction created by government in the 1970s to try to blame the private sector for the inflation they created inflation is not created by workers demanding raises it's not created by companies raising prices it's created by the government expanding the money supply that's the literal definition of inflation it's an expansion of the money supply it's the money supply that is being inflated and when you inflate the money supply prices go up wages are just another price they are the price of labor but just because because nominal wages go up five percent if inflation is nine percent that doesn't mean workers are ahead and in fact the wage number is likely accurate the price number is not the real increase in consumer prices is probably 18 not nine percent that means real wages are collapsing you know and that's one of the reasons that are the most recent economic data that we got last week the savings rate is now at the lowest level since mid 2009 it collapsed down to 5.1 what was happening to the economy in mid-2009 we were in the Great Recession so the last time we had a savings rate this low we were in a huge recession why is the savings rate so low because the recession is forcing workers to dip into their savings to pay their bills because their pay increases Aren't Enough the official unemployment rate is 3.6 percent but the unofficial rate rate is much higher than that because there are a lot of people that are not employed but are not counted as being unemployed and we still have a very low labor force participation rate and so I I look at that number as kind of being a meaningless lagging indicator
Comments 0