저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 인플레이션보다 고용을 우선해 저금리를 유지한 것은 옳은 판단이며, 성장주 매도는 과도하다. 금리·섹터 로테이션: 저금리는 일반적으로 주식에 좋지만 모든 주식에 좋은 것은 아니다. 경기 확장기에는 산업재·은행이 유리하고, 금리 인상 우려가 낮으니 헤지펀드가 산업재·은행으로 자금을 옮기며 고성장 기술주를 매도하고 있다고 설명. 수급: 기술주는 최근 많이 발행됐지만 은행·산업재는 자사주 매입과 합병으로 공급이 줄어 수요 증가 시 가격이 오르기 쉽다. 캐터필러는 1억 달러 규모 매수로 주가를 3~4달러 움직일 수 있다는 예시를 들었다. 기술주 전망: 페이스북·아마존·애플·넷플릭스·구글(FANG) 등은 과거에도 여러 차례 '죽었다'는 말을 들었지만 결국 회복했다. 이번 조정도 일시적이며 매도 측이 다시 틀릴 것이라고 전망. 연준 전망: 파월 연준의장은 인플레이션이 생기고 있으며 더 나빠질 수 있으나 일시적이라고 주장했다. 크레이머는 파월이 고용을 우선하는 것이 옳다고 평가했고, 과거 연준이 인플레이션 대응에서 너무 빨리 움직인 전례가 있다고 언급. 원자재·공급망: 유가는 사우디 증산으로 하락 추세이며 금리 인상으로 해결될 문제가 아니다. 목재 가격 급등은 캐나다와의 관세 해결로, 반도체 부족은 항구 인력난 해소와 공급 확대로 풀릴 것. 플라스틱 부족은 허리케인 아이다(영상에서는 '유리') 피해 설비 복구로 해결된다고 주장. 원자재 가격: 대부분 공급 문제 해결 시 가격이 빠르게 내려갈 것이며, 인플레이션을 이유로 채권이나 기술주를 매도한 투자자들은 후회할 것이라고 경고. 결론적 전망: 파월은 두 번 연속 옳은 판단을 할 것이며, 기술주 매도자들은 손해를 볼 것이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
bad money welcome to craymark other people want to teach you especially on tough days like today so why don't you give me a call 1-800-743-cbc or tweet me at jim kramer if you find yourself scratching your head at this action a sharp sell-off after the federal reserve told us they'd keep interest rates low yesterday dale utterly dipping 153 points sb lost 1.48 but the nasdaq dropped more than 3 percent allow me to explain low interest rates are supposed to be good for stocks but they're not good for all stocks the real winners are the industrials because they make more money when the economy is roaring and the banks because low short-term rates coupled with higher long-term rates are nirvana for the profits for the financial industry meanwhile the growth stocks well let me just say they are getting annihilated especially tech because they're all about the future earnings stream many years down the road and those earnings well let's just say they are worth a lot less in a world with lower rates and higher inflation and that is the world that many of the big time investors now think we've fallen into so as a pro we've seen this happen frankly a gazillion times let me explain how all this fed inflation bond rate steel works when it comes to your portfolio at any given time you've got tons of money managers chasing the hottest of the stocks right that's what we all do right we chase the hottest of the hot instinctive specifically they want companies that will be able to deliver the biggest year-over-year earnings beats without as much risk of an earnings screw-up so for years that meant buying fan facebook amazon apple netflix and google but when the economy heats up these consistent great high-speed growers cannot compete with the boom and bust names like the old school industrials that generate gigantic upside surprises you know what they never can it's like clockwork that the fangs get sold you just might not be paying attention to it because ultimately they come back but this is like the 20th time i saw other people in the network say they're dead they're dead they're dead okay well they're dead for now they're like uh you know dogs that roll over and play dead normally when business speeds up like this you'd expect the federal reserve to tap the brakes by raising interest rates but yesterday fed chief j-pal vowed not to do that at least not anytime soon so the fed's basically saying party on industrials which causes the hedge funds to buy them hand over fast but problem is if they want to buy the banks or the smokestack stocks well they don't have a lot of money just sitting there they need to sell something so what are they dumping the high growth tax stocks that they always dump and that's called the hedge fund playbook but even for a sector rotation this one does feel a little severe why supply and demand our country has created trillions of dollars worth of tech stocks they're being printed like confederate dollars and it's a lot of dispatchers confederate dollars well they seem like it it makes sense because what works in a stagnant economy is to own tech and we've had decades of stagnation after the financial crisis meanwhile there's been virtually no new issuance for the banks or the industrial stocks in fact those companies have been aggressively buying back their own shares for ages or merging and wiping out whole companies that might have been bought at this very moment so when demand spikes there's just not enough actual supply of the this kind of stock to go around so the stock goes higher until sellers come out and even here even after these big rallies there's still not a lot of sellers in the industrials how am i let me give you how much it matters i used to be a trader i mean based on my experience i think you could actually push a dow stock like like caterpillar i bet you could jump that stock three or four bucks if you bought a million shares 231 million dollars that's nothing for these big money measures that's right 231 million it would take multiple billions of dollars of buying power to generate a single point move up right now in any of the larger tech stocks that you might own most of those tech stocks by the way are net issuers of stock meaning they're adding new supply even at a time when demand's drying up no buybacks here keep moving keep moving so when will this rotation end that's what we all want to know right when do we know it'll be safe to uh to circle back first of all it will be safe there's a lot of people today said never be safe i listen to those people and i say god i wish i didn't have two ears but i do here's what has to happen yesterday jay pal made a real controversial claim when he explained his decision to keep the easy money flowing he acknowledged that there is inflation building the system he even argued it's going to get worse so get ready but then he said it's transitory so there was no need for the fed to take action people laughed at this man as i mentioned last night lots of older investors especially bond investors think that pals lost his mind between his rampant commodity price increases and the stimulus checks that are about to hit well they're worried about inflation they're trying to figure out what's with this guy i thought he was one of us he's not jay powell is a new breed of fed chief we've still got six percent plus unemployment and entire industries has been devastated by the pandemic many minority groups shut out from whatever recovery you think we're having so he thinks it's nuts to talk about tightening now and that's what he said okay those are his words as far we didn't use the word nuts i use that because that's like my old way that i like to do it they know nothing they know nothing this guy knows something pal knows something as far as pal is concerned it's better to trade higher inflation for lower unemployment at least the economy is in much better shape i think he's right and not just because the federal reserve has a terrible history of moving too quickly to fight inflation it turns out to be transitory powell made that mistake himself at the end of 2018 his predecessor janet yellen did the same thing in late 2015.
yet these tight money types on wall street the real rich ones never seem to recognize the cost of rate hike to the average person in the country higher yeah you get to save a little more i know that but hit it's about jobs higher rates are bad for the economy powell doesn't want us to take that hit if we don't have to he doesn't want his legacy to be botching the recovery get more people laid off he died after he acted so aggressively last year to keep the economy from crashing and he was so right so good he was second guessed at that time you know the s p dropped 500 just being 500.
it dropped 12 when he slashed rates the sunday night he came in the market dropped 12 he was more worried than everyone else that this could be a terrible time for the economy he was right it also was a good time to buy the sellers were wrong then and you know what i think they're going to be wrong again maybe not tomorrow but let me your reasons first don't look now but the biggest source of inflation oil is i don't know if you've seen it it is rolling over big time i wouldn't get near that thing who needs a rate hike when crude's down five bucks today i think the saudis took the price up now they're letting loose putting more production in nothing to do with the fed though right he couldn't do that jay can't get that done second a lot of this inflation is actually caused by weather-related shortages but we just haven't covered the storm right we've got severe shortage in every single kind of plastic that whole polyethyl thing so producers are jacking up prices however that's not a systemic issue superstorm yuri knocked out a ton of petrochemical capacity along the gulf coast our plastics industry the world's glasses industry is headquartered in texas and louisiana something like 30 to 60 percent of our plastics production has been knocked out by the storm and still not come back online that's not something j-pal can fix by raising rates it's a problem that will only go away when the capacity comes back have a lumber right the price of the lumber has doubled one year making housing much more expensive about 20 000 bucks in a big house but you know what a rate hike won't create more trees no more sawmills we don't need a higher rate higher rates to do this to get lumber across under control it's stupid we need president biden pick up the phone and call justin trudeau in canada and tell them we'll scrap our tariffs get you let's get a deal going one phone call between heads of governors a lot more effective than one rate hike let alone a bunch of them semiconductors once again a lot of this is a supply chain issue yes supply chain the world simply doesn't have enough semiconductor plans something that could take years to fix but in the meantime most of that capacity is in taiwan and south korea that means if you really want to get the chips to the u.s you need to send them by sea but right now we got a major labor shortage in our ports so this torn parts are stuck in the ports rate hikes won't fix that problem either we either need to send these chips by air or solve the darn port problem when it comes to semiconductor shortage powell could do more as a longshoreman than he can do as a fed chief but on stevedore hooks this issue will go away when commercial flights return and chips go into the cargo holes that is how they're shipped by the way i go on copper okay well they're chilling touch soldiers are putting out more peru just said it arizona too paint key ingredients that are offline are about to come online bond vigilantes are freaking out about all these commodities but nearly all of them can come down in price rapidly once we fix the supply situation that will make you feel like a dope for dumping your bonds or tech stocks for that matter bottom line i think j-pal is right to focus more on full employment than low inflation but more important i bet he'll be right about the transient nature of the commodity price increases because he's smarter than everybody else about this stuff he's actually done a lot more work i'm kind of impressed i mean you know i mean how can you not be didn't come out right wall street freaked out last year when powell cut rates aggressively and they're freaking out again now that he's decided to keep late to them too low all right you know what i think's gonna happen listen wall street he's gonna go two for two and the sellers who feel smug selling their tech grow stocks right now they're gonna go over to and get steamrolled good riddanc
Comments 0