저자: ConnorPollifrone · 외국인
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결론: 발언자는 S&P500이 하락 추세이며 약세장 진입 중이라고 보고 공매도·인버스 ETF 활용을 권한다. 시장 전반: 현재 S&P500은 5일 차트상 하락 추세이며 253 부근 52주 저점 지지선을 두고 있다. 지지가 깨지면 하락 가능성이 크다는 판단이다. 금리 인상 여부에 따라 시장이 흔들릴 수 있다고 봤다. 변동성 지수(VIX): 2018년 초 급등 때와 달리 현재 VIX는 중간 수준으로 투자자들이 안일하다고 주장한다. VIX가 상승 패턴을 만들며 상방 돌파 가능성을 언급했고, 발언자는 이를 근거로 인버스/변동성 ETF(TVIX, UVXY 등) 활용을 제시했다. 개별 종목: 마이크론(MU)은 실적 발표 후 하락 출발, 30.8 부근 3년 지지 구간을 주시하며 30.8 하회 시 공매도, 30.18 회복 시 돌파 가능성을 언급했다. 페덱스(FDX)는 실적 후 갭다운, 170 부근 3년 지지선 근처에서 롱 반등 여부를 지켜볼 것을 제시했다. 리스크: 발언자는 약세장 진입 판단이 맞지 않을 가능성이나 반등 가능성을 명시적으로 강조하지 않았고, 연준 발표 당일에는 성급히 진입하지 말라고 조언했다. 출연자 전망: 시장은 하락 추세이며 약세장으로 갈 것이라는 단정적 견해를 반복했다. 과거 2018년 1월 자료를 근거로 든 사례는 과거 설명에 해당한다.
다듬은 글
good morning ladies and gentlemen everybody welcome back to another pre-market livestream so if if the video looks a little off it's because I'm using a different camera I don't have the same camera I've been using so video might look a little off actually looks terrible if you ask me personally from what I'm seeing here it doesn't really look good at all mmhmm yeah the video looks terrible with this camera musing so I'm gonna hop it right into screen share and just share the screen from here at this point all right yeah I don't know I'm using a Logitech camera and it looks terrible so anyways good morning guys we're gonna hop into this alright not gonna really be any video today but that's all good so looking at the screen here so right now we're gonna cover the stock market or the spy as you guys can see it's still pretty volatile had a pretty strong gap up from 253 up to 256 for me the markets still down trending at this point if we do if you look at a five-day charge us going like five days on you can definitely see the market is still down trending we briefly broke overcome the downward trend line resistance maybe but all in all we are still in fact dropping dropping dropping dropping dropping right now today we do have the Fed talks and the discussion of whether or not we're gonna be raising another raising interest rates again if we do raise interest rates again chances are we're gonna see the market drop today if we don't raise the interest rates today the feds don't there's a chance that we're gonna see the market bounce but even so even if the feds don't raise interest rates I don't really think it's gonna stop the market from doing what it wants to do and that's go down right now so everybody at this point I think you guys should all know that we are in we are in a downtrend we're definitely definitely in a downtrend here and so we're soon to be a bear market right personally I think we're already in a bear but I'm asking we are in a bear market I'm not gonna say we're not we are we're definitely in a bear market so right now most of what you guys should definitely be doing is looking at shorting stocks being short biased playing inverse related ETFs for the volatility index and stock market I was gonna be where you're gonna find a good opportunity so all in all gonna be following the market very closely today again we're at this 253 point which is basically the 52 week low over here at 252 92 so we're right at that last little line of support that everybody is hoping just hoping it holds up the only thing that's holding this market right now is hope that's it there's there's really nothing more to it the market is filled with tons of hope that it bounces here and the funny thing is is nobody even knows it nobody even knows just how shaky the market is right now okay nobody's scared everybody's complacent so what I'm most fearful of is that a bunch of people right now are gonna get freaking smoked okay not you guys you guys following here know very well what you should be doing but the rest of the world is gonna get just smoked here soon here's the volatility index look at look at look at the volatility index when back in back in the beginning of 2018 January February that sell-off right you guys know that self we're talking about okay think about it look at back in the beginning okay guys I know I'm repeating myself here but again think about this look at the volatility index back in the beginning of the year in 2018 when we had that first drop okay look at how freaking big the volatility was okay and by the way for those of you tuning in right now that are like all about trading T V IX v XX u v XY some type of inverse stock market ETF just know that those ETFs you're playing are indirect ties and are directly correlated with what I'm showing you on the screen and that is V ix which stands for the volatility index this is like a fear gauge its measures volatility when this is going up that's more likely to the stock market is in shaky times well the funny thing is is back at the beginning of 2018 the volatility went nuts ok right now the volatility isn't even all that high we're just starting to break into the twenty five twenty four area the volatility is still still kind of at a medium level which tells me that nobody is even concerned or there's really not that many people concerned with where the markets at right now and the funny thing is the markets are in way worse times and they were in 2000 in the beginning of 2018 that drop in 2018 is like a cakewalk compared to what we've been doing and the volatility index does not represent that which tells me that right now a lot of people are actually complacent and don't think the markets gonna go down which then means that more people will get crushed when the market goes down because there's less people on top of this trend right now okay the market is most likely gonna go down from here right which therefore means volatility should be going up but right now it's pretty complacent secondly this is the volatility index this measures the volatility the fear when this starts going up the likelihood that the markets gonna go down is greater well what do we see here let me delete these little drawings what do we see here right now on the volatility index the volatility index excuse me I'm sooo mning in like an idiot the volatility index what does it look like I'm not gonna say any more here I want you guys here on YouTube to answer this there's a five-second delay on YouTube so we'll take a second before the answers come in but what do you guys see right now on the volatility index right here where I'm circling the screen what sort of pattern is starting to occur what does it look like to you okay and I'm gonna stop there I want to hear some I want to hear what you guys have to say exactly for sure you guys are all right no not it I don't mean arguably you could see an inverse head and shoulders but the first gentleman here was Brian Truong saying a bull flag then you have Daniel a bullish URI uptrend Alex flat top breakout wedge bullish pennant not a bear consolidation so a lot of those are correct so let's dive into it a little bit closer what we're really seeing is and here's the thing as I call them bullish pennant some people call them bull flags really at the at the end of the day as long as you know what you're looking at it really doesn't matter what you call it right you know a piece of poop could be called the cheese it for all I care just depends on how you perceive it right so what we see here is a sort of like a bull flag and a bullish pennant right look at this okay that right there is priming up in my opinion for a breakout to the upside okay I had it so so again right if we look at this a little closer we have you know it's going down and up and down and up and it's just channeling up and up and so chances are we're getting ready to push okay that's the volatility index all right now I'm going to show you T VIX look at T VIX you tell me what is T VIX look like to you does it look bearish or does it look bullish well we just fresh broke out we're on an uptrend and we're breaking out of previous levels okay so the difference is is look back in hold on let me also go back to volatility and here's something got a map out for you okay I got to go back to the volatility index so let's look at this at a year chart okay I know I'm moving kind of fast so here's the difference between the beginning of 2018 and now what it what's the difference here beginning of 2018 was just this big drop big spike we came crashing down and then it kind of failed right but this time we dropped we spiked we came down we put in higher lows and now we're trending up so we're actually starting a trend right now last time was just a scare spike down this time it's a down you know it going up and now it's trending up okay so back to TV IX 180 day chart just for the purposes of this video you can see that we are starting to break to the upside on the ETF's TV IX and the volatility ETFs okay secondly go back to the market right the market is without a doubt in a downtrend let's go to the will do the yearly chart here right so yearly chart okay going from top down that's a downtrend we have your top lower high down right we're knocking on that door of support so chances our markets are going to move lower but the scary thing as I was mentioning is when you look at the volatility index nobody seems to have a freaking clue which tells me that more people are probably gonna get crushed not necessarily get crushed but the thing is just nobody sees it nobody even knows and in the thing is guys for you in everybody in here on YouTube channel again watching you know this is for the ones that are here all the time you guys are always coming back and watching the streams which I truly appreciate you guys know as well as I do I've been saying this for so long that the market is going to come down and we're so close and we're so ready and again you know you got the people that call me an idiot and that's fine but that's it we've been seeing this coming for a while and it's starting to take place and we are all I am over I am just all over this dude I'm already short the stock market I've been short the stock market it's I'm killing it and not necessarily killing it but I've been short the market okay and I'm going to keep shorting until it tells me otherwise so right now why is decision for you guys to follow if you're bullish traders right if you're someone who likes trading long bias you're probably going to want to focus your energy and attention towards volatility ETF I understand that when they cost $40 and $60 a share that they don't look super appealing but yes you can still make money even if you have a small account alright I'm not saying to only trade those but that's a definitely a good area to focus some of your attention all right now that you guys have heard me feel on and on and on about doomsday and how the markets gonna crash and we're all gonna become poor overnight how do we actually look at a stock you could potentially trade today sounds good to me all right this is micron okay yeah there's too many people that are complacent in this market see this is another problem guys is here here's the issue - all right I'm gonna mention this and this will be sort of quick I'll try and make it quick all right I don't wanna waste your guys's time so here's another thing is is when a bear market starts it has to start with the correction and then the correction leads to a bear market so if you're a bullish trader all the time and then the markets correct right what you end up saying is oh it's just a correction it's gonna bounce right and you never think of the downside that this could be the top so then you become complacent which each time it corrects thinking it's going to bounce well here's the thing is a bear market starts with the correction so whether or not you're saying it's just a correction not that correction can lead towards a bear market and if it does go into bear market then that means it was the start of the bear market and it wasn't just a correction so the problem with a lot of complacent bullish traders they go oh this is just a correction it'll bounce okay well then when it doesn't bounce they go oh well my loss is too big to sell out now and I'll just have to hold and ride it out and then they get caught in the big wave down because they're so complacent and so naive to the fact that hey maybe this is the top and I should start you know preparing and that's the thing is there's a lot of people can place it right now and then again that's the difference we DIF between being a trader someone who's actively doing this every single day your way on top of it and the best thing that I can do is just try and get it out to as many people as possible right you know so enough of the market this is micron this is mu this is an earnings play today they're obviously getting smoked again this is not a good sign a big semiconductor stock earnings down again again the market doesn't look good so massive drop here this $30 an 80 cent level you see here on micron is it's kind of a support you'd have to go back to the three-year chart here to kind of get an idea for where it's at right now it dropped down to like $30 and $31 pre-market which brings it towards like this three-year consolidation zone so you know whether or not people really pay attention to this three-year kind of area at 3087 is kind of what I'm caught up on so you know I want to be short on micron but you know that $30 level is kind of interesting so I think micron is a good one to watch today because of the big drop earnings gonna have volatility I couldn't tell you exactly which way it's gonna go I could give you a couple ideas as far as well you might want to do and and really that's this if the market or MU stays below like 31 80s or close to it you know I'd probably try and get short around 30 180 if it looks good and starts holding resistance for a move down towards the pre market low and then potentially a breakdown if if it fails moving lower then we could see it curl up and if it presses over 30 180 that's gonna be a level where we could see along so I think right now this pre market top at 7:30 in the morning 720 at 30 180 is going to be a very key level you want to pay attention to intraday for a a short position but also a potential breakout and that's the thing guys is most of your entries and exits are usually gonna be around a key level which the key level could also be good for short and long so that's kind of why you always run into that challenging you know day trading you know that's why it's kind of hard because those key levels where you need to take a position you could also be taking the opposite position and it all comes down to who wins that battle right there so definitely following MU today short last one I'll touch on here is F DX F D axis FedEx they had earnings today as well gapping down see that's not good right look at think about a big company like FedEx earnings dropping here that is not a good sign for the market okay over 50% of all the stocks in the S&P 500 are now in bear market what do you think's going to happen to the market you now have over 50% of the company's in bear market that means the other is I think the number was 53 today it's probably 55 so that means the other 45% of the sp500 has to do all of the legwork to keep to keep the S&P 500 up so if those other 45% are failing what do you think's gonna happen to the market and this is something I said four months ago I said four months ago that almost 50% of all the stocks in the in the Dow Jones were in bear market we're heading towards a bear market that was four months ago and now CNBC comes on goes oh we were headed towards a bear market like no this was coming this we should have been telling people long time ago that this was coming and then you could have saved them some money but that's not your your job is so anyways we're definitely in some sketchy times I think FedEx is gonna be a good one to watch her today guys got this earnings big gap down you know if you look at the chart it dropped quite a bit down below it's three year support so I think FedEx could even access that's wrong it's it's lower than that excuse me it's down to 170 so if it's down to 170 it definitely dropped right into support so you know right now FedEx is actually at a strong support so I would honestly kind of watch it long bias and see if the short sellers get squeezed out from the dip buyers here at the 170 price you know so anyways yeah max no we don't stream live here on YouTube after the bail that's something that we do in a private group with some of our trading members we only trade live and help kind of tutor and answer questions they're a private group but we do always come on in the morning and usually do one of these streams for you guys so you know anyways guys that's really all I got for today sorry I don't have the camera and I took it home last night shot a video didn't bring it back I'm using a webcam the webcams trash so anyways I good morning let's let's definitely so so my tip here for today for you guys is really be patient with the market today in the Fed meetings today so you definitely got to be patient let things set up and really don't jump the gun the market is not something you want to jump the gun on today yep all the private members have access to our trade ideas scanner clouds and then they get access to all our trade ideas scanners in our trading rooms so if you don't want pay $100 to use the advanced scanners then we stream them for free for you guys in a in our trading room so you get access to our high add a momentum scanners reversal scanners so you get you get to use all the alerts just without having to pay for the service is really the the kind of thing there you just don't get to customize them yourselves yeah yeah no problem so we'll see on the inside yeah guys if any of you guys also here on YouTube want to join into our private service it's the first link in description below hop in we'll take care of you other than that that's all I got for you guys today so take care have a green day and I will see you guys all tomorrow morning for another another trading day all right take care
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