저자: ConnorPollifrone · 외국인
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결론: 발표자는 단기적으로 AMD는 숏 편향, 테슬라는 롱 편향 관찰, 전반적으로 시장은 추가 하락 가능성을 보며 신규 롱은 자제해야 한다는 입장이다. [AMD] 실적 부진으로 시간외 갭하락. 장 초반에는 하락 추세가 남아 있어 $19 아래를 유지하면 숏 편향으로 대응하라고 제시. 다만 이미 크게 하락해 추가 하락 여력은 제한적이라고 봄. 며칠 내 반등 가능성을 언급하며 그때는 롱 편향 거래 기회가 있다고 전망. 과도한 거래량으로 당일 변동성이 클 수 있음. [테슬라] 실적에서 처음 흑자 달성. 발표자는 실적 발표 전 매수를 보류하라고 과거에 권했음을 상기. 강한 상승 후 약간 밀렸다가 추가 상승을 예상. 공매도 잔고가 많아 실적 호재 시 숏 스퀴즈 가능성 언급. 320 돌파, 이후 321 상회 여부를 주시하며 롱 관찰. [기타 종목] 쇼피파이(SHOP)는 프리마켓 움직임이 좋지 않아 관찰 대상. 마이크로소프트는 실적 후 시간외 상승 흐름으로 관찰 대상. [시장 전망] 시장은 하락 추세가 끝나지 않았다고 판단, 추가 하락 가능성 경고. VIX(TVIX 등 변동성 ETF) 주시 필요. 265 레벨이 핵심 지지선으로 이탈 시 260, 2월 저점 252까지 하락 가능성 언급. 현재 변동성지수는 30 근처에서 23 수준. [리스크/조건] 대형주 위주로 변동성 확대 가능성. 프리마켓은 지정가만 가능하며 thinkorswim에서 GTC EXT 설정 필요. [종목별 방향] 발표자는 자신은 현재 어떤 종목도 장기 롱하지 않으며 시장 전반이 약세라 대부분 숏 편향. 페이스북은 문제가 반복되어 회복이 어렵다고 보고 숏 편향. 아마존은 200일선에 걸쳐 있고, 넷플릭스·엔비디아·스퀘어·쇼피파이는 데스크로스 임박 또는 진행으로 약세 전망. 현재는 장기 투자 적기가 아니며 과거 대비 하락 후 투자 관심을 높일 시점이라는 취지로 발언.
다듬은 글
good morning ladies and gentlemen how's everybody doing here this morning hopefully everybody's doing ok so today's gonna be a pretty busy day a lot of lot of earnings plays I myself I'm only gonna be going over AMD and Tesla here this morning so probably touch a little bit on the market as well many of you guys to know that that still been getting crushed and so it's been a wild ride recently so as you guys can see from the past couple live streams have been doing we've been telling everybody to stay focused on your volatility ETFs like T VIX you know keep eyes on your large cap stocks because those are gonna be a lot of the stocks that are gonna be moving which they have been so hopefully some of you guys have been kind of gearing in that direction you know with your volatility ETFs and your large cap stocks because those have been the most active in terms of creating areas of opportunity to make profit right so what's going on good morning Ivy it's interesting it's taking longer nowadays for more people to join it to the stream used to be just kind of like instant so I don't know if the stream just isn't reaching as many people or notifications aren't working on YouTube but interesting so we're gonna go ahead and get into sharing the screen here alright so first one on watch is going to be AMD so I'll pull up AMD for you guys alright so AMD obviously not so hot on their earnings and now it's gapping down overnight big move so you know I want to be long on AMD I really do I really want to watch AMD long today it's just hard to say that when the pre market action looks so bearish already so for me personally I think we're gonna see I think AMD is going to turn into a long play in the next couple days there might be a bounce on it today but I do think in the next couple days we're gonna see a bounce on AMD just because it's already done a mass move up and it's already rolled over so much so there's a lot of room that it could go back to the upside so I do foresee some type of bullish play here on AMD in the coming days today I think it's probably best to sit back and see what it wants to do initially because it is still kind of trending down right we had to move down all right you know so there might be a force lower so what I would watch for is probably a short to begin with watch it short bias initially today and then just see what it does you know something else that I don't necessarily like about AMD too much is because it's such a commonly traded stock that I think we also might see AMD have an extremely choppy trading day because it's such a heavily traded stock and it's after a big earnings so a lot of people may not know exactly what they want to do with their positions and it could cause this back and forth rallying for the day so we're just gonna have to wait and see I think we do run the risk of seeing and way over stock that's way too you know overly traded today so what I would first do is probably watch AMD for a short play you know and then maybe a long trade later in the day or tomorrow or in the coming days I think there's a good opportunity for a long bias trade on AMD but for me today probably gonna be watching it short see if it stays below you know like $19 if it can kind of stay below 19 I think I'll like it short bias okay but again it's already moved you know down a lot right already made a big move down so you know asking for more to the downside you know it's it's quite a lot so we'll see okay so that's AMD next one was his Tesla TSLA so Tesla had their earnings finally proved profitability so a lot of people are all like gung-ho on it now and this is exactly what I was saying you know months ago is to just hold off on hold off on Tesla just wait till they have their next there their next earnings report see if they show profitability because you know everybody was buying it up thinking this was the problem we had with with Tesla is is you know everybody kept buying it up going okay well you know what I'm gonna keep buying it up it's low its low its low right and I was like we'll just wait till after the earnings report right because if the earnings report is good it's gonna go up but if it's bad it's gonna take it down so you know just imagine to be one of the buyers getting it around here right even on any one of these lows right imagine being the buyer getting in an any one of these lows and then instead of it having good earnings it had it's it actually had negative earnings right and went like that right you'd be you'd be crushed so I think it was wise for those of you that maybe held off on actually longing it until the earnings report and now that it's out we can see how it's gonna trade for the next couple days let's see if it sets up bullish right we had a strong move up so you know I don't expect us to go skyrocketing higher you know I kind of expect maybe a trail back and then maybe a move higher so definitely gonna follow it today there's a lot of hype around it seeing what its gonna do as many of you know Tesla's the heavily shorted stock so with this earnings report coming out being good you know it runs the risk of running higher well it's not really a risk for Bulls but it does run the chance of going higher and then cause the risk of short sellers start and squeeze out so you know if I were to watch it today probably be long just because the earnings report and the amount of people that are surrounded in the Tesla world so I would probably watch it long see if we can get up and over 320 and then over 321 personally Monica you can get in touch with me through discord it's our chat room it's in the description of the video here it's yeah it's linked in the description it's our chatroom so once you you know get into our chat room it's free then you'll have the power to just send me a direct message on the chatroom or a private message let's see so yeah I mean those are those are really the two main plays there's some other ones you can keep an eye on you can keep an eye on Shopify today I had earnings but the pre-market movement doesn't look great so you could watch shop which is sh o p you could also watch microsoft microsoft is you know how to earnings and it's doing fairly well from after-hours trading so you could also watch Microsoft here Microsoft's from getting beat down to it just came down to that 200 moving average on the daily chart a little below and kind of bounced so a lot of movement there but I would honestly say looking at the market today I think the markets setting up for another move to the downside personally I don't think this move downs done yet I think we're gonna see another move lower here in the market personally so just be careful for another sell off today so for you traders out there again keep a close eye on TV IX and your volatility ETFs as if this market keeps going down and the volatility picks up we're gonna go higher right now let's see where our volatility index is our volatility index is at peaked yesterday at 26 so it's approached in that 30 level we're at 23 now so you know a couple more down days in the market the volatility could pick up to the 30s and we might really be seeing some some fast movement so looking at the market - you know it's basically saying if this thing breaks to 65 but the market breaks to 65 it's pretty much a I think it's pretty much a downfall straight to 260 you know I could be wrong but I think 265 is really this major key level and if if the 265 level starts breaking you know I could first see us down at 2 to 60 and then even lowest the 252 previous low I think in February beginning of the year so again III don't think the downward move is done yet so keep keep close tabs on your volatility ETFs how can you trade pre-market you just you going you know you just you just trade you can there's a few ways to do it you go to the trade tab on your thinkorswim platform and and purchase from there you can even add it to your active trader window if you just try and put in an order pre market on thinkorswim it won't go through because you have to classify it as GTC EXT which means good till close or extended after hours trading free market sessions so there's something actually have to do to your order before it'll go through you can only do a limit order in pre-market trading I'm not long on square again I'm not I'm not long on any I'm not long on anything right now I mean this is right this is exactly I mean I don't I don't want to quote myself exactly but realistically for anybody who's tuned in you know anybody's in the private group or into our live streams here the number one thing I've been saying for months was I'm not investing long in any stocks they're just way too high right now is not a good time to buy if there's really no there's not a whole lot of opportunity to the upside and then still people said I was a crazy and there is opportunity to the upside and there's you should be buying and I'm like no right now is not a good time to buy and if we go and we look at every single stock they are all down significantly and that is why I was not buying because I foreseen this happening right I did a lot of research and so again I'm still not long on anything I don't want to be long in anything the only thing I would actually long would be like a bounce right so so if is so if we're looking at any long plays right now they're all short term everything else is is short bias right I'd be short by us on everything until markets consolidate show strength which they're not so there's no reason to even consider being long bias right now in my opinion there's a few out there that might be good but majority of the pot is all bearish right now and I don't see any long place yeah I mean Facebook doesn't look good at all I mean Facebook just has issued problems after problems after problems and so I mean Facebook's just one that can't recover so I'd be short by us on Facebook too I think it yeah I mean you know realistically the short was like right here I mean I'm not gonna lie I've missed so many plays here you know throughout these past weeks and I'm not even trading all that great of what I could be but like I said I mean justjust look at everything it's all bearish Amazon's turning bearish right Amazon's one year day chart it's right on it's 200 moving average just barely hanging on Facebook is already in it's already in Bears correction bearish moves basically everything you look at Netflix it's soon to have a death cross which means that's heading towards bearish EMU's already down it's bearish Nvidia is doing the same nvidia soon to have a death cross and that'll be bearish square soon to have a death cross that'll be bearish shopify already had oh very close to having its death cross that's bearish I mean it's just you name it AMD AMD as we say was way over it's just coming back down so again I think it's scary right now to even consider long the only thing long I would do is to short term plays but yeah alright ladies and gentleman that's all I have for you guys today so I'm gonna call it there I get back to our private group so thank you guys always again for tuning in I don't know if like the notifications are coming through later to you guys and they normally do but usually we pick up in views viewers faster so I don't know if like maybe YouTube's not getting the notifications I'll see you guys one way or the other but I've noticed that the past couple days it's kind of like slowing down which is I don't know but it is what it is you know I don't know if that's what's going on no it's it's a great it's actually a great time that's another thing it's not a bad time to be an investor it's a great time to be an investor right now it was a bad time to be an investor a couple months ago right a year ago that was a bad time to be an investor right now it's good to start wanting to become an investor so yeah that's that's weird I don't know I don't know why it's taking so long to get to you guys but anyways we're gonna end it there thank you guys again for tuning in I do appreciate it I've been super busy lately so I have been kind of slacking on the YouTube videos I mean it just kind of is what it is I mean it's got a lot on my mind all the time so anyways hopefully we can get a good trading day on our hands and get to some more YouTube videos and a couple more podcasts for you guys but anyways I'll see you guys all tomorrow morning on Friday for another pre-market watchlist and hopefully you guys stay green of the day all right take care
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