저자: SergeBerger · 외국인
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비트코인이 장기적으로 채권의 대안이 될 수 있다는 철학적 관점을 제시한 영상. 결론: 발언자는 비트코인을 포트폴리오 1~5% 장기 배분 자산으로 보는 하우스 뷰를 밝히며, 기관 자금 유입이 늘수록 비트코인의 역할이 커질 수 있다고 주장한다. 레이 달리오가 인터뷰에서 채권보다 비트코인을 보유하고 싶다고 언급한 내용을 소개하고, 이것이 주류 뉴스가 되고 있다고 설명한다. 채권 시장은 주식시장보다 훨씬 크며 기업·기관 투자자에게 중요한 시장이라고 강조한다. 미국 10년물 금리는 1981년 고점 이후 장기 하락(채권 강세)을 보여 왔으며, 발언자는 금리가 크게 오르기 전까지 박스권 흐름이 더 가능성이 높다고 본다. 채권 수익률 매력이 떨어졌다고 평가한다. 중앙은행이 금리를 올릴 수밖에 없는 상황이 오더라도 부채 부담 때문에 최대한 피하려 할 것이라고 언급한다. 기관 투자자 관점에서 채권 포트폴리오 일부를 비트코인이나 이더리움 등 암호화폐로 대체하는 것을 고려할 수 있다고 제안하나, 이는 추천이 아니라 현재 관찰되는 흐름이라고 단서를 달았다. 헤지펀드가 초기에 폄하받다 주류가 된 사례처럼 암호화폐도 제도권 편입 과정을 거칠 것으로 본다. 각 자산에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없고, 비트코인에 대한 장기 견해 위주이다.
다듬은 글
so today i want to take a bit more of a almost like a philosophical approach and look at i think something that we need to just address here a bit more publicly we talk about this to our clients all the time but it has to do with you know what if what if something like a cryptocurrency becomes a at least at the margin an alternative at times to let's say something like the bond market and so i want to make sure everyone kind of understands where we come from you know we certainly respect everyone's opinion bullish or bearish and all the arguments and we look at them all the time on where you know thoughts on the cryptocurrencies the bitcoins the theorems of the world so uh we are certainly always open to any feedback on that as well would love to hear from you um where we stand right now is that we are we're telling people anywhere between one and five percent of allocation do something like a bitcoin in a portfolio within a bigger context makes sense um so it's a longer-term investment vehicle we're not looking to trade this right now that's our sort of house view right now having said that i wanted to bring something up and we just earlier this week heard from this gentleman here in the bottom right hand corner ray dalio he's the ceo and and i guess he's probably the founder original founder of bridgewater associate associates it's a major hedge fund and maybe he's no longer ceo why maybe he's on the board i don't know i don't want to uh you know give him an official title since i don't know big hedge fund guy is the bottom line and he sort of in passing towards at the end of an interview said that he would actually prefer to own a bitcoin versus owning a bond and you know we've been of that sort of thought process going down that thought process for quite some time now but since this is now becoming more mainstream news to talk about i thought it's only appropriate to give you some bit of an idea of what this potentially could mean to the lens of again right now just a philosophical idea and and really something we need to think about and go through um for the record and i just brought a a chart along of the of the us bond market or the global bond market actually bond market this is a discharge a couple years old so the bond market's certainly a different size now but and this is corporate bonds it was roughly you know 40 uh or so a trillion the bond market is a lot smaller by the way excuse me the stock market is much smaller than the bond market meaning but i'm trying to tell you that the bond market is a very big market and a very important market certainly for people at home but quite frankly mostly for corporations for institutional investors what we call them and so if you think about this if we are in a situation and we are where and i'm going to bring up live here a quick um chart of the u.s 10-year yield and i'm going to make this a chart that's a bit more a bit easier to view through a lens of a long long long term view we essentially had the u.s 10-year yield peak out in i think 1981 was the year and uh we are now essentially many years later where maybe we've seen a low in the yield meaning we've had a bull market in bonds for many years uh and meaning a bear market in bond yields but that may be about the change but i think before we see a major change in in bond yields going a lot higher the odds are quite high that we have more of a trading range meaning bonds aren't going to be that interesting they're not going to yield a lot uh so they're probably you know not going to be a hugely attractive point to buy but even if you wanted to you know kind of be on the short side of bonds and expect bond yields to go higher there's probably limitations to which that can happen for the time being so if bonds are no longer that interesting certainly from a yield perspective which they haven't for a while and you know central banks make this clear at some point of course central banks will be forced their hand and they have to raise rates but they don't want to do that as much as as much as as possible prevent that actually because of the amount of debt we have and of course if they were to raise rates then they have to hire rates at which they can refinance their bonds and they don't want that makes sense so from an institutional investor's perspective um why not consider something like a bitcoin and again this is i'm sure everyone's got different opinions we are aware of most of those thought processes which i think they're all great uh why not start looking at something like a bitcoin or even ethereum and other tokens and other cryptocurrencies out there as uh something that is going to take place maybe not so much as a replacement of equity equity portfolio stock portfolio but it may be but maybe a part of the bond portfolio that seems kind of very counter-intuitive considering fixed income is supposed to be very uh very steady low volatility why would you replace that with a bitcoin but these are arguments we're hearing more and more and more and so you know the reason i'm bringing this up is because i think we need to start respecting cryptocurrency for better or for worse as something that is an alternative asset class or another asset class um very much like hedge funds were being pooh-poohed for many years before everyone started investing in them and you know there's cycles in those we think it's going to be very similar here but we think you know the more institutional money comes into this space the more interesting this gets the more liquidity goes up the more uh uh general uh just intellectual capital even though there's a lot of intellectual capital going into this space so if you want to be long something like a bitcoin a small allocation one five percent again this is not a recommendation it's just what we are seeing here being done and and we think does make sense for most people but you do have to consult with your own financial advisor on that specifically what what percent you want to allocate but it does make a lot of sense especially if the big institutional investors which we've seen now for a while they've been coming in but they're starting to really think about this where are they going to allocate where which part of their portfolio are they going to take and allocate a little bit of it maybe to crypto and if it's not equity it's likely going to be at least in part the bond portfolios again this is up for a lot of discussion a lot of debates some of you might agree with this some of you might totally disagree i wanted to do is i want to kind of go start introducing you to our thought process and what we think is the upside here or one of the upside catalysts and what we're seeing on the institutional side so i hope this makes sense any questions comments let us know and we'll see you in the next video
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