저자: SergeBerger · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 테슬라(TSLA)는 변동성이 크므로 주식 직접 매수 대신 10월 만기 370/420 콜 스프레드(약 1,940달러) 매수를 제시하며, 이는 리스크 대비 보상이 양호하다는 주장이다. [시장 상황] 테슬라 주가는 주간 차트상 200주 이동평균선 재시험 후 상승 돌파했다. 2.5주 연속 급등으로 단기 과매수 가능성이 있다고 언급했다. 현재 주가는 약 371달러다. [투자 아이디어] 주식 100주 매수는 약 37,000달러가 필요해 부담이 크다고 설명했다. 대안으로 10월 만기 370달러 콜 매수와 420달러 콜 매도의 콜 스프레드를 제시했다. 해당 스프레드 비용은 주당 약 19.38달러, 총 약 1,940달러다. [리스크] 테슬라는 투자자 감정이 극단적으로 양극화되어 있어 변동성이 매우 크다. 틀리면 큰 손실이 가능하므로 여유자금(play money)으로만 접근해야 한다고 강조했다. 옵션의 시간가치 감소 위험이 있다고 언급했다. 10월 옵션을 사용하므로 단기간 급락해도 최대손실 1,940달러 전부를 잃지는 않는다고 설명했다. [기타] 2일 반 라이브 워크숍 개최 지역을 시청자 의견으로 받는다고 안내했다. 8월경 강의 재개 예정이라고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
hey folks uh welcome to today's the study Trader video it is a Tuesday which means it is time for a um actionable trade idea and uh as you'll see in a minute this is a trade idea that's going to uh make some people very happy it's going to make some people very angry if you're going to be a hater about this uh you really don't need to spread your hate in the comment section below you can just go somewhere else maybe go to the gym or something um before we get to the trade idea though um we're planning our next Workshop these are the Live 2 and 1 half day sessions and we're thinking Denver as the next location but it's totally up in the air let us know in the comment section down below or send us an email support atvtrader.com where you would like the next one of the next locations to be it doesn't have to be the very next one let us know what location uh you're at and you would like us to show up for 2 and 1 half day live in person Workshop so having said that the trade here today is on Tesla okay and I'm going to say this again because every single time I talk about Tesla we get a crazy amount of feedback both positive and negative I have over the past 21 years as a Trader never seen a stock that has had a more polarized investor or at least I guess investor and Trader base it is the emotions in this stock are higher than in any stock I've ever seen higher than Apple much higher than Apple higher than anything I've ever seen Amazon that comes nothing compared to Tesla I'm not really sure why um and really care is what it is but so this is going to set up for a trade now again keep in mind if we can look at this trade in a minute Tesla has a lot of risk so if you wrong about Tesla you can definitely lose a decent amount of money so to me as a trading vehicle it's definitely something I don't want to put a crazy amount of money in it's a bit of play money if you will but I do think the reward to risk here is pretty good so let's uh swing the camera around as always and have a look at the chart first and foremost and what you'll see here in a second and this is the weekly chart so I kind of zoomed out on the on the on the charts and made it a little bit larger so you guys can see it um where you can see the perspective I'm trying to I'm trying to give you so let me kind of make it fit the screen and what you can see if we kind of look at the multi-year chart here is that we've had a stock that really had a beautiful breakout when it started to to to to to break past this area that I just this this line that I just drew it then retested broke below it and retested that red line on your screen which is the 200 week moving average um and so that was basically the March lows of this year but um the stock then began to bounce and as you can see it is now breaking higher out of this next diagonal line of resistance now I will tell you that I think the stock could be immediate turn overbought why because it's just blasted high now for 2 and a half weeks however given what this stock is the Beast that it is the crazy uh you know sort of bipolar investor and Trader base it really could continue to move you know much much higher on a shortterm basis so personally I'm not a massive fan of buying the stock itself I mean you know if you wanted to buy 100 shares at a stock the stock right now is trading at $371 is call it so that's like 30 $37,000 plus you'd have to spend just to buy a 100 shares of stock so what I think one could do okay and if you're not an options Trader you can just you know kind of close your eyes right now but I'm just trying to give you an alternative okay so instead of buying the stock instead of buying the stock for a trade one could go ahead and buy a very simple call spread the the implied volatility in the stock is actually um to be honest with you it's not as bad as it it could be it's it's risen a little bit over the past few days but it's not so bad so what I'm thinking here is buying the October 370 strike call you can see that down here my finger is and selling against that the October 420 strike call that's going to cost you $19.38 in debit roughly speaking maybe a little bit more maybe less which is about $1,940 so instead of spending $37,000 for 100 shares you can control 100 shares of stock uh until October with $1,940 now of course there's time Decay and all those risks that you have with options but to me this is a pretty decent re to risk um also considering that because we're using October options if the stock were to quickly fall apart right after right after the um uh over the next let's say you know few weeks or so you are not going to lose the maximum $1,940 it's just not going to happen that's why we're going to use October options so um again this is an October 37420 bull call spread costing $1,940 as I'm recording this right now here very early on Tuesday the uh 19th of of of June so uh that's the trade idea again I want to say this one more time Tesla has an extremely bipolar uh or polarized investor in Trader base and and that is that causes a lot of opportunity if you're right but really can Zing you badly if you're if you're wrong in any time frame for that matter so that's the trade and again guys let us know in the comment section down below or send us as an email to support at the trade.com where you would like to come us and what what cities you like you'd like us to visit for the the life two and half day seminars these are amazing Live Events you're going to it's going to take your trading to a whole another level uh let us know we're getting back on the road as of um August yeah August so uh let us know I look forward to seeing as many as possible there and I hope you find this trade U idea here in Tesla helpful take care
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