Cathie Wood: Über 100 % Rendite mit xAI-Rechenzentren? | Signal & Rauschen #04

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Cathie Wood는 SpaceX의 xAI 인수가 손실 은폐용이라는 비판을 반박하며, xAI 데이터센터 임대 수익(Anthropic 연 34B$/GW 등)이 1년 내 투자금을 회수한다고 주장. AI 경쟁에서는 모델 제공자보다 클라우드/데이터센터 사업자가 최대 수혜자라고 봄. AI 버블 가능성에 대해서는 과거 버블처럼 끝날 수 있으나 현재는 아직 멀었다고 답함. SpaceX가 장기적으로 수십조 달러 시가총액에 이를 수 있다고 전망. 영상은 투자 권유가 아니라는 면책 포함.

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01. Aha, he just bought it because it was losing so much money. The laughter is on them. So, you get more than 100% return on your money. Just keep an eye on SpaceX. I think it is going to be tens of trillions of dollars. Was the purchase of XAI therefore a losing proposition for SpaceX? Did Elon Musk, through his company SpaceX, only buy XAI to somehow mask the huge losses ?

02. Let's take a look at that now and see what Cathie Wood has to say about it. Cathie Wood is the founder and CEO of the US investment firm Ark Invest. They invest in disruptive technologies and are mainly known for their investments in AI, robotics, as well as space travel and biotech. She became known at that time for her very bullish assessments and forecasts regarding Tesla.

03. Some of her predictions turned out very well, but others did n't turn out at all. So, there have been both great successes and significant setbacks. But first, a brief disclosure. Cathie Wood, through her company Ark Invest, is a major investor in SpaceX and they also have a stake in the AI ​​company Entropic.

04. That does n't mean her statements are wrong, but it's certainly good to know that she is not uninvolved. And the same applies to me. I am also invested in SpaceX myself. And now, let's talk about what she said in the interview with Equity Mates. The video was released in mid-September 2026 and in it she said some exciting things about XAI and SpaceX and about the revenues that SpaceX is currently making.

05. You know, the naysayers said, "Aha, he just bought it, because it was losing so much money and he kind of wanted to cover that up in this much bigger company." So, she says that back when SpaceX bought the company XAI in February 2026 , the critics said, yes, they just want to somehow retouch the big losses and embed the whole thing in a big company to hide it.

06. And Cathie says now, eight months after the takeover, it's clear that they were wrong and that this deal was very good for both sides. So Kathy Wood is basically saying that he who laughs last laughs best, because with the acquisition of X AI, SpaceX has acquired very valuable assets that are already generating billions in revenue.

07. But who are the customers who pay these billions? Kathy first mentions Anthropic, in which she herself is also invested, and she says that Anthropic had a projected annual revenue of 6 billion in December 2025, i.e. 6 billion per year, and by mid-2026, i.e. in August 2026, that was already 65 billion.

08. That means, according to these figures, they have increased their annual revenue tenfold within six months, from 6 to 65 billion per year. And there are other customers as well, but more on that later. But first, let's look at the specific figures. And besides, what kind of product is it anyway? Specifically, this concerns data centers and the leasing of computing power.

09. Yes, so she says the critics were wrong because X AI built a data center and they paid approximately 25 to 30 billion US dollars per gigawatt, and the critics certainly hadn't expected how much they earned. So the customer was Anthropic, and they leased the computing power for $34 billion per gigawatt per year.

10. This means that they recoup over 100% of their invested capital after just one year, and these annual sales continue after that. And that's not even the highest of emotions. There are other customers as well. Trillions of dollars per gigawatt. So, we are in such early stages, the demand is so huge, the returns are so huge.

11. Yes, Google then followed suit and even paid 50 billion per gigawatt . Cathie says the whole thing is simply groundbreaking because we're only at the very beginning and the demand is huge, and the returns are just as good. Now, one could of course ask whether this will all remain the case, i.e., whether demand will remain so high and whether sales will remain so high .

12. Cathie is also asked how she assesses the risk of AI becoming a mass-market commodity and how she assesses the competition from China. I find your answer very interesting. If you look at what's happening in China compared to the US, you'll find it's a bit like iOS and Android. Yes, she says she assesses the competition between the US and China regarding AI as similar to Android and iOS.

13. So, she says Android has 80% of the devices, but iOS has 80% of the profits. And that's exactly how she assesses the open-source models when compared to the paid models. But she goes even further, saying that the real winners are not the model providers. But the real winners in all of this are the cloud providers.

14. She says the real winners are not those who offer the models , neither open-source nor the closed models from the USA, but the real winners are those who offer the computing power , those with the data centers. Because she says that many Chinese models are also used in the USA, but where does the capital flow to?

15. The capital is flowing not to the Chinese models, but to the cloud providers, i.e., those with the data centers. But what if the whole AI topic is just a bubble ? What if it ends like the 2001 dot-com bubble and everything implodes? Cathie Wood is also asked about this topic, and this is her answer.

16. As these things tend to go, they typically end badly because too much capital pursues one opportunity, and this drives down the returns on the invested capital. Yes, well, she says these things usually end up in the middle of a pause because there's simply too much capital chasing after opportunities.

17. We 're somewhere nearby now. But she believes we are currently still very far from that, and all the things mentioned lead Cathy Wood to put forward a very daring thesis. I'm giving up to SpaceX. I think it will be one of the most valuable companies. I think 10 trillion dollars. Yes, Cathy says SpaceX will become one of the most valuable companies ever, and she's talking about several tens of trillion US dollars.

18. So, if you believe that, then she's predicting a market capitalization of at least 20, if not 30 trillion US dollars . A quick disclaimer: this video is not investment advice. SpaceX is a very volatile stock, and whether someone invests or not is entirely up to them; I offer no opinion or recommendation on that.

19. But that's it for now . If you are interested in these videos , please subscribe so you don't miss anything. It costs nothing and helps me a lot, otherwise see you later . Ciao, ciao. I'm giving up to SpaceX. I think it will be 10 trillion dollars.