저자: JimCramer발언을인용한CoachAllen · 외국인
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2022년 Jim Cramer의 Top 4 픽(셰브론, 일라이 릴리, 허니웰, 그리고 적자 기업 1곳)을 점검한 영상으로, 결론적으로 배당 블루칩인 셰브론과 일라이 릴리는 긍정적으로 보지만 허니웰과 마지막 종목은 회피 대상으로 본다. 셰브론: 배당수익률 약 4.3%, 거래량 충분. 2020년 마이너스 유가 충격 후 회복했으나 최고가는 아직 미회복. MACD가 상단 데드크로스 조짐을 보여 단기 하락 압력 가능성 언급. 다만 연준 긴축(채권·주식 매입 축소)으로 안정 배당주 선호가 이어지면 상승 가능. 매출은 2018년 이후 감소 추세지만 바이든 정부의 석유 정책으로 유가 상승 시 매출 회복 기대. 최근 4분기 실적은 4번 중 3번 상회. 일라이 릴리(LLY): 배당수익률 약 1.5%, PER은 업종 평균 수준. 5년 차트 양호하고 2020년 폭락 이후 크게 상승. MACD 교차 가능성이 추가 상승 요인. 배당을 꾸준히 올리는 점을 안정성 근거로 제시. 매출·이익 모두 우상향 흐름으로 평가. 허니웰(HON): 배당수익률 약 1.8%, 거래량 양호. 2019~2020년 큰 조정 후 회복했으나 둥근 천장(rounding top) 패턴과 MACD 0선 하회를 부정 신호로 봄. 주가 2.34% 반등 언급. 배당 인상은 긍정적이나 2018년 이후 매출·이익 감소를 우려, 장기 투자 대상으로는 보류 의견. 마지막 종목(적자 기업, 사명 미확인): 2010년 이후 배당 미지급, 적자 상태. 기업 내용을 잘 모른다며 회피 의견. 향후 흑자 전환 시에만 관심을 가질 수 있다고 언급. 전체 결론: 안정 배당 블루칩 중심 전략에 우호적이며, 적자·매출 감소 기업은 피해야 한다는 입장. 개인 리서치 필요성을 반복 강조하며, Cramer의 추천을 맹신하지 말라고 경고.
다듬은 글
okay so recently jim cramer from cnbc has made his top four picks for 2022 stocks some of which i agree and also that i disagree with let's get down let's check it out really quickly we remember to do your own research never trust some random person on the internet or even jim cramer himself some people really love him while other people hate him and there's good reason for it so let's get down let's check it out his first pick is chevron which is no surprise actually all of these picks are really no surprise because of course all of the picks that he picks are always from his own hedge fund that he runs so that is a huge reason why i say always do your own research don't just trust people on the internet or even on the tv because sometimes they have ulterior motives however chevron i actually kind of agree with it's actually a pretty good stock especially if you're like myself and you love dividends this does pay a 4.3 dividend when it comes to the p e ratio for oil companies it's kind of on the middle ground maybe on the bit hot higher end when it comes to pe ratio so it's not exactly on sale by any means and the average volume is absolutely crazy so you're able to get in and out of it pretty easily unless you're buying like 5 million shares in which case why would you be watching this video now this is when it kind of gets interesting because i really like to look at charts and as we can see it didn't have all that bad of a chart before of course the virus everything plummeted this is when oil went negative for the first time ever and everyone thought the world was going to burn however of course it's recovered quite nicely since and it's actually pretty well in line with its long time chart and it's not back to its all-time high and i'm not too sure if it will get there anytime soon however there's reasons for and against this stock a major reason against this stock is this right here it's starting to cross the macd is starting to cross and if that green line goes above the blue well guess what this stock is going to be going down could we see a little bit of a reversal i personally think that there could be at least in the short term i think the macd might get back down to baseline at least what i call the baseline which is zero and at that point i'm not too sure how far this may drop it may go back down to previous support levels there or potentially there it's hard to say but i do believe that there is going to be some downward pressure potentially just because of the macd however that could be totally against what will happen because right now because the fed is in the states starting to essentially not spend so much money when it comes to stock purchases as well as bond purchases and things like that there is a lot of investors who are starting to move towards safer stocks and what is that a stock that pays a stable dividend and of course a company that's like a blue chip company that's been around forever and if that transition continues to happen canadian banks american banks oil stocks like chevron are going to be going through the roof however if this taper doesn't happen all that much or as fast as what people may think then tech stocks might be a better solution however right now it definitely does look like blue chip dividend type stocks are going to be at least this year's favorite they do also very frequently up their dividend they just recently upped their dividend by five cents a few months ago actually almost a year ago so we may see another increase in dividend coming soon but it's always hard to tell the only thing that i really see that's huge against it for the long term is of course the dropping revenue since 2018 anytime a revenue is dropping it's a cause for concern to me however this could turn back around with biden in office when trump was in office oil prices were going down he was very good with opening up different oil fields and of course biden wants to shut all of those down whether you agree with it or not it doesn't matter i'm not here to debate who's right however i am here to say that with biden in office oil is going to get higher and higher and higher which means that chevron's stock price could potentially also get higher because they'll have higher revenues going into the future and over the past four quarters they've met one expectation missed one and beat the last two and the last one being the most substantial beat yet for the past year eli lilly lly is another one of kramer's picks as a dividend investor it's only one and a half percent the stock's been around for a heck of a long time and has really good volume and when it comes to the p e ratio at least versus other stocks in its field it seems to be pretty well in line it's not on sale it's also not expensive it's kind of in the middle and you can't deny the five-year chart looks absolutely amazing and when we look at 2019 2020 during that initial phase of everything going down it really didn't have anything to do with going down and it's rose hugely since also the fact that it looks like the macd just potentially crossed could lead the stock even higher they also do raise their dividend quite a bit as well and usually companies that raise their dividend are considered safe investments and considering the big move into these types of stocks versus tech stocks bitcoin things like that we are really starting to see that this could be a potential big gainer into the future for us we can also see that they have higher revenues and generally higher earnings minus 2020.
i really don't want to compare 2020 all that much but they did have higher revenue and lower earnings which is kind of interesting honeywell is another one of jim cramer's picks h-o-n now this one again is not a massive dividend payer it's only 1.8 percent and it has about 2.7 million volume shares traded per day and the p e ratio again is pretty well on average for its field over the past five years it's had a pretty good run of course 2019 2020 that was kind of an interesting drop it did drop down really for hard town uh when you're looking at levels of support all the way however it has really recovered the one thing that you generally don't want to look for is a rounding of a top and that's what we do see here with honeywell and i would be kind of scared of it at that point another thing that i would be definitely scared of is of course the macd right now it doesn't look all that good the blue line's been pretty well steady for a while underneath the green line you don't usually want to see that and we don't really see any bit of turn around anytime soon it's also dropped below zero and any time it drops the macd drops below zero that's a cause for concern for even more drop so it's going to be quite interesting now we did see a 2.34 stock price gain the last trading session before the little bit of a drop after hours so always do your own research this is just my own quick research into stocks that jim cramer is really trying to push however there are a few issues that i do personally see being the rounded top and the macd not showing too much of a positive they have been raising their dividend which is a positive considering the type of stock market that we see ourselves in right now however when we look at the financials and the earnings again kind of interesting we're seeing that they're beating quarterly estimates however since 2018 2019 2020 they've been dropping their revenue and their earnings have also been dropping as well so this is personally not a stock i would be getting into at this point in time i would like to see at least that change if i was looking for a long-term investment and about health companies i probably butchered that name good volume again this one does not pay a dividend it hasn't paid a dividend since 2010 so this is definitely something that i would be personally staying away from unless there was some big stock gains potentials it is up during the market and after hours of friday's last trading day we don't really see it moving away from zero macd until of course recently here as well as here so again this is a concerning stock that i would personally not be putting my hard work money into and this is what i mean it hasn't paid a dividend since 2010.
it also has negative earnings it's kind of concerning as to why jim cramer may have recommended this stock maybe he thinks that they're going to be making positive earnings once again it's going to be quite interesting if they do start making it positive earnings it would be an interesting stock to get into but at the same time i like to go off the past history of a company and considering this company i don't know a ton about or the fact that they're just not making money makes me concerned and it is something to probably stay away from in my opinion while some of these stocks are really good others are not i hope that you've enjoyed today's breakdown if you have hit that like button subscribe let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below and i'll see you guys again next time
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