저자: Daniel · 외국인
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Howard Marks의 투자 철학(역발상, 2차 사고, 리스크 관리, 시장 사이클)을 소개하는 교육 영상. 가치투자 관점에서 매수 가격이 수익을 결정한다고 강조하며, 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 2008 금융위기 등 과거 사례를 언급.
다듬은 글
born in queens New York United States in 1946 Howard Marks grew into one of the legendary investors who influenced the world of modern investment well the approach used is value investing or value investing With a deep understanding of market psychology then he founded o Capital management in 1995 Well now this Capital management manages more than 18 180 billion us do and has become one of the most resilient investment companies amidst market uncertainty Well so Howard Mar is not only an investor who is considered a master, friends, but also a thinker whose vision is highly appreciated by professionals in the financial industry well even friends waren bet himself once said so waren bet took the time to read the memo from Howard Mar as soon as he received it well Why is that because in Bik his writings There are deep insights into contrarianism then second-level thinking risk management and also market cycles Well so these four core principles are the focus of the foundation of Howard Marx's success in investing Okay friends our discussion this time is about the investment legend, namely Howard Max Well so he will change the way we invest Therefore, continue to read the discussion until the end Okay first of all we will discuss about academic journey or investment journey of Howard Max so since young friends Howard Mark is actually interested in the world of finance so he pursued education at worldton school and earned a degree in finance in 1967 then he continued his studies at the University of Chicago Boot School of Business by obtaining an MBA in accounting and marketing in 1969 his first career actually started at citybank where he honed his skills in investment research but the turning point actually happened in 1985 when he joined tcw group and began building a high yield bond portfolio and investment in distressed assets then his success at tcw solidified his reputation as a disciplined and visionary investor especially in seeing opportunities amidst market uncertainty so those are the advantages of Howard Marx Then in 95 he founded or in 95 with his experience and also increasingly mature investment philosophy he founded ori Capital managementen this company then quickly became the market leader or major player in the securities investment business or especially in distressed assets and high yield bonds and also of course with equity or private stocks and under his leadership, friends of RI Capital are growing rapidly and building a reputation as a company that is able to face price or market volatility with a careful and value-based approach.
So, friends, that's a glimpse of Howard Marks. Actually, the most legendary thing is thinking outside the box or contrarian. So, Howard Marks has a unique perspective on the market which is outlined in his most legendary memos. His philosophy is centered on four principles. The first is contrarianism.
So, for Marx, the best opportunities actually arise when the majority of market players are overwhelmed by fear or excessive optimism. At that time, investors can actually panic sell, then eh, they can also panic buy. Friends, Marx sees an opportunity to buy high-value assets at a discount. So, on the other hand, when market euphoria is peaking, they tend to be cautious and more defensive.
This is actually a similar approach to Benjamin Graham's mismarket. Then, friends, the second is related to second-level thinking. If we pay attention, Marx often emphasizes the importance of second-level thinking. His ability to see opportunities or beyond the information that appears on the surface and he understands what is really happening in Turning the news back on the turmoil or turning it back on the news, well, for example, friends, if everyone is sure that a certain stock will rise, then the stock price is likely to reflect the optimism of market players.
So, a second-level thinker will ask the following questions: First, what factors have never been taken into account? Second, what risks have been analyzed? Has this risk been thoroughly analyzed? Third, does this price reflect the intrinsic value of the asset? So, by thinking deeply, an investor will be able to avoid the trap of herd mentality and find more profitable opportunities.
Third, there is something called risk management. So, for Mar, investing is not only about seeking profits but also surviving in difficult times. So, he believes that avoiding bigger losses is much more important than chasing spectacular profits. This principle is very visible in strategies that tend to be defensive and focus on risk management.
So, when the market is good, they are not tempted to take excessive risks. Likewise, when a crisis comes, they are ready to take advantage of opportunities without rushing to buy. Then, fourth, there is the market cycle, friends. So, how do you understand the rhythm of the ups and downs of a price movement?
So, ee Marx often talks about ee market cycles and also how to understand these phases in help investors to make wiser decisions so the market will always move in cycles of periods of eoria and followed by falls and vice versa well successful investors are not those who try to predict accurately but those who know where their current position or where they are in the cycle so they can adjust to their strategy well next we will discuss about investment memos from how Marks well as we know that friends e one of Marks' greatest contributions is about the memos that he wrote periodically originally made for internal purposes but these Memos eventually became a source of insight for the global investor community Well these Memos not only discuss numbers and market trends but also often discuss the psychology and behavior of investors Well with this task and weighty writing style Marx succeeded in explaining complex concepts in a simple way so that they are easy to understand one of the best examples is the discussion of the financial crisis in 2008 where Marx actually showed how mass panic actually created extraordinary opportunities for them or market players who remained rational well then than that friends who are more interesting friends that there is one legacy and also influence that bigger transmitted by Mark so not only is he a successful investor but also a thinker who contributes in an e in the world of investment well one of them is with the book the most important thing well where he has become a guidebook for investors around the world well in this book he summarizes 20 principles which are the basis of his investment approach even waren bppet himself praised this book and called it a must-read book for anyone who wants to understand investment in depth and better in the real world indeed this Marx philosophy has been tested in various market conditions Well so some conditions such as the crisis in 98 then there was bubble.com in 2000 there was also the collapse of eh finance or the Global crisis in 2008 well what's unique is that these friends managed to face these difficult times and prove that this principle really works so that's it friends yes tahat Test against various conditions well next we will discuss contrarian strategies So actually there are three principles that we can practice or we can examine in this contrarian strategy well eh the first is related to patience so patience is a contrarian strategy that requires a longer period of time so that it produces results because the error of this market price is not immediately corrected so investors must be prepared to maintain their position then the second is extra strict assessment well contrarian investment tends to eh depend on in-depth analysis of the intrinsic value of an asset Well so friends ee this will ensure that the purchase made is truly at a discounted price Well so ee no longer e what is called the discount is truly reflected in its fundamental value n so that the sale occurs when this asset is overvalued by market players well compared to long-term investment strategies that rely on growth or growth of the company so this contrarian strategy depends on identifying mispricing made by market players and the third is emotional discipline well this is the most challenging friends of the contrarian strategy where the ability to remain calm in making decisions so buying in the middle of this me which is expanding and also selling when the asset is e eora of course goes against human nature which tends to seek security and follow the majority well this is most investors yes like that friends well how do we find attractive offers in the market well at least there are several methods applied by Mark so for investors who apply this contrarian strategy the main goal is find assets that are undervalued but are valued by market participants very cheaply Well so in this slide we will try to find or discover what we can learn well the first friends if we pay attention that the assets are less well known and not fully understood friends yes second looks fundamentally doubtful third is controversial and disliked or considered risky then the one that is considered not suitable for institutional portfolios fifth is not popular and also less appreciated by EE market participants sixth has a price or has a history of poor performance so there could be a reversal and the seventh has just experienced divestment rather than accumulation well interestingly friends this second level of thinking plays a very important role in this strategy if an investment idea sounds perfect from all aspects ordinary investors will tend to immediately accept otherwise at this stage or this second level of thinking is actually attracted to businesses that have obvious shortcomings yes because that's where there are often investment opportunities well so that's friends so the goal of investment is actually not finding good assets but finding a good buying price because the most important thing is not what we buy but the price we pay for the asset Well so that's it friends yes Well next we will discuss about about second level thinking what is this second level thinking actually so this is also called a more complex and in-depth thinking approach and also understanding ee and exploiting or elaborating a market condition that is often ignored by market players So so friends ee as an example we will ee go into several examples for example about the scenario well a company announces financial reports that are better than expected well in first level thinking of course this company is performing well this news will make the stock price go up so we have to buy or I have to buy but in second level thinking will consider several questions such as for example Has this positive news been anticipated by the market and reflected in the current stock price or asset price well then secondly Is this income sustainable or just a temporary event thirdly How is the overall market sentiment well and how does it affect a stock or asset that you want to buy and fourthly what risks have not been taken into account by the market and their impact on the future well so that's critical thinking In my opinion friends Yes so in this example actually this second level thinking will conclude that even though the news is positive and the stock is not ee the stock is not a good buy if the market has already appreciate Well so the price is already expensive so a quality asset that is priced high will not be an opportunity In fact they might consider selling shares or assets that already fully reflect the prospects of the company well so that's what we can take we learn from ee second level thinking Well what is actually the most important factor in investment Well so Marx emphasizes that the main factor in determining performance is the purchase price even the best asset that becomes a bad investment if bought at too high a price it will become a bad asset well while an ordinary asset bought at a cheap price will actually be much better Well so friends this view that it is not what you buy but the price you pay for it that will determine your profit Even a great company with an exorbitant price can be a burapi company that is biased with a cheap price can be a great investment Well so ee sorry friends well Therefore we often hear that ee assets that are already good and priced high will not be chosen by people who actually have or are looking for opportunities in the market well then friends if we can say that this shows the potential for profit or loss depending on the initial price so by focusing on the price investors will manage risks better and increase the opportunity to gain profits So why should we bother learning from Howard Marks Well friends from his extraordinary career journey Howard Marks has taught us various guidelines in investing that investing is not just about seeking big profits but also about surviving in the long term well with contrarian thinking and understanding market cycles and strict risk management an investor can increase profits Well so increase the opportunity for success significantly Well so Anyone who wants to be a better investor then studying Howard Marks principles is a very valuable step well and eh if waren buffet always reads memos written by this maybe on the contrary there are things that waren buffet does for this well so eh thus reading his memos of course gives us insight Well as a conclusion my friends will say that eh Howard is actually a simple person to become a thinker in investment and the most influential even his journey shows a combination of discipline then vision or foresight resilience in facing a market full of uncertainty Well so his success in implementing contrarian strategies and a deep understanding of market cycles will provide valuable experience for investors Well so this H reminds us that the key to success in real estate is not only the selection of assets that Tati also on the purchase price By understanding Rik and thinking mentally or level then someone then remains emotionally disciplined then this will navigate investors in navigating the complexity of the market.
Well friends, that's the story about forward Marks, hopefully this video inspires you if you like this video please press the like button and don't forget to subscribe and turn on the notification bell so you don't miss the latest videos from my daniil notes, I'm Danil and Salam Satu Sering
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