저자: Daniil · 외국인
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미국 증시 조정(2024.6.7 고용지표 강세로 금리 상승 우려) 속에서 Peter Lynch의 1987년 블랙먼데이 경험과 조언을 소개. 투자자는 시장 흐름을 무시하고 장기 관점으로 기업 펀더멘털을 점검해야 하며, 단기 노이즈에 흔들리지 말고 여유자금으로 장기 보유할 것을 강조. 인도네시아 대형주(BBRI, TLKM, ASII)의 횡보/하락 사례를 언급하며 펀더멘털 악화 기업은 피하라고 함.
다듬은 글
Hi friends meet me again with me daniil in Danil's notes and in this channel we usually discuss interesting things about stock investment from a fundamental perspective and interesting stories from legendary investors well in this video we will share information about What investors should do when the Berry market is like now ala viterlin well friends as we know that all over the world even in America itself stock investors are currently experiencing a beris phase Well friends if we pay attention ee the market and America itself experienced a correction such as the snv 500 index fell to 0.11% then dowjon fell 0.22% and nasdq fell 0.23% well the direction of the Beis market is also expected to continue And then the beris market conditions are like this What should investors do What should be bought Are baps shares that have fallen in attractive to buy Well here is the review that we will convey from the perspective of perlin Okay before reviewing what viterlin did when the beris market there is a big question that we must answer what actually happened with US stock market on June 7, 2024, the US stock market was immediately corrected after the release of employment growth as of May 2024, the data of which jumped to 272,000 compared to 165,000 in April 2024.
Well, the consensus estimates that in May it actually rose but not that high, namely around 180,000. Well, in this condition, of course, it will make interest rates rise high or even stay as they are now. It could be that this defense is longer. Well, this means there will be a risk of the stock market experiencing a sideways phase or even experiencing a bearish trend for a longer period of time.
The question is, what should an investor do when the market is in a bearish state like now? Well, here are the opinions and of course the experiences of a Peterlink in facing a bearish market. Well, this is a companion to the events of the 1987 market crash and at that time, Peter Lin was in Ireland.
So, in his book One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lin tells a story of his vacation in Ireland at the same time as the market on October 16 to 20, 1987. At that time, Peter Lin and his wife were in Ireland and unfortunately the holiday was quite disturbed by the unfavorable market conditions so this is the chronology of the Dow Jones index.
It experienced a decline of up to 48 points on October 15, 1987 when Peter Lin left for Ireland then on October 16 the Dow Jones index fell deeper to 10 points in the end Peter I asked if I should continue this holiday then next Peter I continued on vacation throughout October 16 to 19, 1987 he carried out his holiday activities according to his friends' plans such as a trip to the country court Ina then visited the issuer's headquarters in Ireland and of course kissed the BR stone and played in the Water file to enjoy the popular snails in doile well unfortunately in every activity Peter Lin was of course busy because he was communicating with his team or people in his office because there was a decline in shares because on Monday October 19, 1987 the stock market in the US crashed and 1 million investors who deposited funds in Magelan fan this had a floating l of up to 18% or an estimated 2 billion us well when there was a decline in the stock market Lin and his team continued to look for sales strategies The root of the loss effect is not too much because of the market crash that occurred, the request for disbursement of funds also occurred, an unusual request for funds, finally they had to buy shares that had to be in order to fulfill the request, Peter Lin did a screening and the first shares that were thrown away were shares in the London market whose position was still higher than in the US Dollar, this condition occurred because the London stock exchange closed on October 16, 1987 so it had not experienced a significant decline, then the rest Lin submitted shares on the New York Stock Exchange until it fulfilled the Redemption request, even that night when eating snails in the doile, pterlin could not distinguish between kat fish and shrimp that he was eating, so he really could not differentiate between the two when the Mutual Fund experienced a floating loss or equivalent to gross National Product or GNP and one of its growth matrices besides gross domestic product or GDP, so a small country in the archipelago, so ee, he really could not differentiate between eh, those two things, Peterlin returned to the US on October 20, 1987 and he immediately returned to his office to take care of the various chaos in the market at that time, then we will discuss the investor perspective on the Beis market Well, this is according to Peter l's opinion, friends.
So, Peter always believes that investors should ignore the market trend. So, at that time, Peter Lin educated investors in the Magilan F mutual fund so that only about 3% of the millions of investors switched mutual funds from stocks to the money market. When the market crash occurred on October 19, 87, you don't need to panic and sell it immediately.
So you can be patient for the next few months after the panic selling investors have finished selling their assets. This incident occurred in October and the stock will also rise in December of that year. At that time, if you feel uncomfortable with the fundamentals and high market risk, you can of course sell it so that the risk of loss is reduced and you can even sell in a profitable position.
That's Peter l's education to his investors. Even so, the position at that time, which was indeed a crash or you could say a crisis, did make stock investors frustrated and after that, many investors will compare this condition with the previous period. Then Peter l said that this condition actually happened in 1981 at that time, the stock market was very Beris and gloomy from there many feel that it seems the stock market could be like the incident in 1929 which was when the great depreciation occurred in the US well when the stock market starts to fall there will be estimates of how much this market will fall by comparing it to the previous period This of course happened in the Beris market trend in the 90s which Peter Lin considered more frightening than the 1987 market crash where in the 1987 market crash the economy was growing well but in the 90s the economic conditions were not good and when the stock market trend is Beris there will be many reasons why we are better off white NC first to enter the stock market so in the 19 E 90 period there are several strong reasons why it is better to white NC in stocks such as the collapse of the Japanese economy then trade in the United States with China then there is also the collapse of bonds in 1994 until the economic crisis in developing countries especially in the East Asia region and of course there will be stocks that are considered expensive and this phrase is often said when the market conditions are Beris well these various concerns will definitely arise and never stop when the market position is in a row but basically remains simple and unchanged stocks are not lottery tickets friends so there is a company attached to every outstanding stock well the company can do this to be better or even worse in various factors including external factors that cannot be controlled so when the company does something better then the stock will also go up but When the company does something bad likewise the stock will also experience a decline Well so If you have a good company that continues to improve its business performance then of course you have entered the right stock so said well of course there is also a paradigm that says that these big cap stocks are actually anti-down Is that true Well so this is actually one of the misconceptions that can be said to occur in various or almost all stock investors well even though if we know that when these big cap stocks are considered unable to fall when the Beis market they will also fall so This also happened in the US in the 1970s at that time the stock market eh stocks with a small market cap It is indeed said to be shaky when the market trend is in a row Well from here the assumption arises that investing in big cap stocks, especially in nifty 50 has 50% of shares with 50 shares with the largest market cap in the US.
This also did not experience a decline, but in fact in 73 and 74 the baps shares experienced a deep decline of up to 50 to 80%. So why can BS shares fall even though they are often said to be more stable and consistently rise in the long term, well in the case of NIFT 50, these shares do have consistent stock price increases, but of course the time frame is also long term, up to 10 years.
So if you buy at the highest price today, it's not a problem if you have to H for the next 10 years. So, for every e-investment, it is recommended to use cold money or money that will not be used for daily needs so that we as investors can H for longer. As for this long-term H period, there will be a period of decline of 10 to 20% every few years.
Well in this case, NIFTY 50 has experienced a fairly deep decline, friends, for 6 years, this is written by Peter Lin in his book Of course, this is based on the experience of friends. So the question now is what about the stock market in Indonesia in the last few months, we can see that bkaps shares are in the spotlight, for example, BBR, then TLKM and ASII.
So will this be a sign of the apocalypse for these three shares? Historically, the movement of stock prices on a monthly basis since 2004 bbri stock prices have indeed recorded a decline of up to 30 to 50% so this downward trend is caused by two things namely market crash due to extraordinary events such as the events of 2028 and 2020 during the 2008 covid that was a subpr marget case and the trend of rising interest rates in 2013 2015 and 2024 where interest rates were indeed high well different from bbri friends two big capaps such as asii and Telkom have started to record their sideways levels since several years before covid for example Telkom which has indeed entered the sideways level at 4,000 per share since 2017 while asii itself has been since 2011 Well so basically we return to the fundamental aspects mentioned by viterlin Why are the two baps shares stagnant So the first tlkm itself has not done anything very well since 2017 Well because after because its performance only depends on telkoms while the growth of other businesses tends to be slow even its innovation is also considered losing out to its competitors well then the second one is that ASII is actually doing quite well, it's just that in the automotive sector, the automotive sector makes its shares move stagnantly because the automotive market in Indonesia has also tended to stagnate in the last decade so we are at the conclusion stage friends so what should an investor do in bearish market conditions until BAPS shares are also corrected the answer is you can check the shares you collect yourself with long-term goals Do they have good business growth prospects or not in the future So if the prospects are still okay then you can relax and hold the shares and let time answer the price movements Then in the case if the characteristics of the shares we hold are like the example of ASII and Telkom which provide quite large dividends but their business growth tends to be sagn, you can buy at a lower price for example in AS II this is at a price of Rp.000 and Telkom this is at a price of 2,900 Well after that you will be able to get dividends with an attractive dividend yield rate but note friends this can only be done for B capaps issuers who have business growth But only moderate and stagnant like the example of ASI and TLKM now the case is different with unvr and hmsp which can be said in terms of profit margins continue to experience a decline or erosion so that instead of stagnating but their performance actually declines or continues to decline and if you have already held and have no capital with cold money anymore, it is better not to pay attention to market conditions in the short term unless you have a trading model that requires fast turnover, because according to Peterlin for long-term investors, time is the best friend.
So that's our discussion about things that need to be done according to the principal and hopefully this information educates you and inspires you. Okay, I'm Danil and Salam Satu Sering
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