Inflation could be 20% in the next three years: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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Siegel 교수는 시장이 당장은 상승할 것이라 보지만, 통화량 급증으로 향후 2~3년 내 인플레이션이 20%까지 갈 수 있다고 경고한다. 통화·유동성: 팬데믹 이후 1년여 만에 통화량이 약 30% 증가했고, 이 돈은 지출과 물가 상승으로 흘러갈 것이라고 주장한다. 시장 전망: 현재 자금 유입이 계속되어 주식은 당분간 상승할 것이라 보며, 2021년 전반 시장은 매수 대상이며 추가로 10~20% 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 조정(10% 정도)이 한 번 올 수 있다고 언급한다. 인플레이션 헤지 자산: 주식은 현금흐름이 실물 자산(지적재산, 상표권 등)에서 나오므로 실물 자산으로 분류되며 인플레이션 헤지가 된다. 부동산도 헤지 수단으로 언급한다. 채권·현금 비중: 현금성 자산은 최악이며, 국채는 실질 수익률이 마이너스가 된다. 물가연동채(TIPS)도 현재 실질금리가 약 -1%로 매력이 없다고 평가한다. 배당주: 배당 지급 주식이 인기를 끌 것이며, 배당수익률 2~5% 수준이 채권보다 매력적이라고 본다. 연준 리스크: 연준이 결국 긴축으로 돌아서야 할 것이며, 그때 시장에 조정(약 10%)이 올 수 있다고 경고한다. 진행자 질의: 진행자는 나스닥 저점에서 한 투자자가 2023배 PE 수준을 합리적이라 했다는 점을 소개하며 Siegel의 견해를 물었다. Siegel은 연준이 역대 가장 비둘기파적이었다고 지적하며 인플레 위험을 강조했다.

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01. headline april retail sales coming in unchanged versus an expectation of a gain of eight tenths one percent that data follows rising inflation numbers from earlier in the week markets lower since monday the dow and s p currently on pace for their worst week since late january the nasdaq likely to see its first four-week losing streak since the summer of 2019.

02. joining us now jeremy siegel finance professor at the university of pennsylvania's wharton school jeremy i with great interest uh read your pre-interview notes and i was really wondering is he going to say it is he going to say the fed has been you know too easy is he going to say inflation is definitely a problem is he going to say i've been a long-term bull and i'm finally having some questions and i'm not gonna get any of that from you and i'll just tell you one thing jeremy yesterday morning at the at some of the lows of the nasdaq some really well-known investor wouldn't let me say anything on the record but said that a 23 handle on the qqqpe for next year is reasonable and he said that right at the lows that that was not an unreasonable multiple for the nasdaq next year saying that this sell-off basically was was viable i think you might agree well you know joe on on our program i've been very consistent since last summer you know the unprecedented monetary expansion uh the unprecedented fiscal support uh you know i think excessive was first going to flow into the financial markets into the stock market and then once we were opening and we're right at that cusp when we heard got leave it was going to explode into inflation i've been an inflation warrior joe for the last uh year almost um so yeah i mean the question and i said i was the one that said that uh uh jay powell was the most dovish fed chairman that i've ever seen um not acting against what is very obviously uh inflation and then we're going to have a lot more um so that's going to be a problem down the road but in the meantime the money is still flowing in and uh i think stocks are still going to be going up it seems like a lot you're right i mean it's it's a blessing and a curse long term you keep printing like this and you think there's got to be a come up but in the meantime you're printing and it's going somewhere so it's very weird it's a it seems like a blessing and a curse but i feel like remember chuck prince said yeah we're going to keep doing i'm going to keep dancing while the music's playing but can't i mean someone can just flip that off in a second or it doesn't work that way it's slowly the volume goes down and then it finally turns off well the money supply since the beginning of the pandemic so a little over a year has gone up almost 30 now that money is not going to disappear that's money is going to find its way into spending and higher prices now not all of it's going to go it's we're not going to have 30 inflation but i predicted here that over the next uh two three years we could easily have twenty percent inflation uh with this increase in the money supply uh stocks are real assets they're claiming i mean we call them financial assets they're traded on exchanges but the basic value the cash flows come from capital they come from intellectual property they come from trademarks um those are real assets so the money is going to flow there and of course real estate inflation hedges and and then everything can go up 20 that money is not disappearing so that's what we're gonna be looking forward to i think over the next year and then the fed is finally going to be forced to say yeah i got it i got to stop this and uh yeah then you're going to be a bum then there's going to be a bump in the road another 10 so the market is a buy in 2021 with another 10 to 20 to go in the lower with uh not much else not much else you don't want to go into bombs i mean any or cash assets they're the worst dividends dividends will be in vogue too and and uh people will strive for dividends because there will be some inflation and that helps with that yeah and that's the only way you can get protected we all know on treasuries you're going to get negative real returns that's already locked and you go into tips today minus one percent that's not something very attractive about when you know the history is that stocks more than compensate for inflation and there's a lot of dividend paying stock two three four five percent so why would you go fixed income i mean that the gap is huge and that's when i think it's going to continue to drive the money into the market despite the fears that will be realized that the fed will tighten in the futur