저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2021년 5월 시점에서 에피센터 주식(경기재개 수혜주)의 바닥이 확인됐다고 주장. 근거 1: CDC가 완전 접종자에 대한 사실상 모든 제한을 해제해 크루즈 등 코로나 타격 업종의 정책 완화를 시사. 근거 2: 인도 확진자 증가세가 꺾이며 글로벌 셧다운 꼬리위험 축소. 근거 3: VIX가 30을 넘지 못하고 약 50% 하락해 위험 신호 해소. 근거 4: 러셀2000(소형주)이 13 매수 신호를 나와 에피센터 주식의 선행 지표로 제시, 과거 유사 신호 후 약 20% 상승 사례 언급. 유가 상승은 명목 기준으로 보면 인플레이션 우려가 과장된 것이며 80달러 부근까지는 소비를 죽이지 않는 재플레이션 신호라고 주장. 원자재 가격 상승으로 원자재 수출국 경제와 증시가 호황을 맞을 것이라 봄. 유럽 재개방 수혜 관점에는 동의하나 고객에게는 최고의 기업을 보유하도록 권고. 미국 소형주 상당수가 시장을 지배하며 멕시코 기업도 블루칩 성격이 있다고 언급. 출연자 Melissa(타깃 긍정), Gracia(TriNet 등 유럽 레버리지 기업 선호, 국내 주택건설주는 역풍으로 회피 권고). BK는 목재 가격 하락이 Pulte(풀트 홈스)에 호재라고 언급하며 Pulte를 주시하겠다고 함. 투자 대상은 주로 베스트바이, 타깃, 풀트 등 에피센터 종목이며 대상 자산 목록의 한국 종목·비트코인 등은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
let's get to our guest here he says we're ready for a breakout fun strat's tom lee calling it today he says the bottom is in for his epicenter stocks those include names like best buy cat amd and mosaic tom of course is a cnbc contributor fast money friend he joins us right now tom why do you think it's a bottom here for the epicenter um i think four important things happened this week the first is and i think the most important is the cdc lifted essentially all restrictions for fully vaccinated americans that only speaks to how effective vaccines are but i think it really hints to the policy lifting on the restrictions for cruise lines and things that have really been decimated during covet that's huge for epicenter the second is india cases are rolling over and that's really taking down the tail risk of a global shutdown third is the market had a failed attempt at a crash uh the vix didn't even manage to break 30 after rising 80 percent over three days and it's now fallen almost 50 percent so uh that's a big risk on signal and then i think as an extra credit for those who follow to mark small caps which we think is a really important proxy for the epicenter stocks because it's full of epicenter stocks actually had a sequential nine count on wednesday but on thursday it did exactly what we needed which on on a relative basis to the s p registered a 13 buy signal on the combo so this happened to energy stocks on april 23rd what happened 10 days later nearly a 20 rally so i think there's a huge rally underway for small caps hey tom it's bk so i'm curious the one thing that i'm looking at next week obviously is oil prices you just mentioned energy um do higher oil prices help or hurt your small cap call uh i think it's helping i think what people have to do is adjust inflation for gasoline prices for instance even if gasoline hits three dollars and it and someone says it's a 10-year high you have to remember on a nominal income basis that's actually the equivalent like 2.50 gasoline 10 years ago so gasoline and energy and oil really have to push up towards that above 80 level which is the goldman target before we start to say it's crowding out spending the way it did the last time i was at 80.
so i i think there's a lot of upside room and i think it's a reflationary signal tom when you look at your epicenter stocks what do you think about the rest of the world though broaden this out i know where you stand you know where i stand but what do you feel about europe about the recovery there because i'm seeing a lot of different funds saying the real money to be made the next six months to a year is going to be in those economies uh ratcheting back up and reopening because they've lagged behind us uh yeah i mean i wouldn't disagree with that um because let's think about the story arc of the story arc is commodity prices are up nearly 40 percent of the world are commodity-producing countries because they export those are going to be booming economies and booming equity markets uh as you point out europe is reopening and there's a lot of countries tied to european trade re improving and those are going to be great equities but the one thing i would hesitate to say is i think we want our clients to own the best companies and besides u.s large cap a lot of u.s small caps actually dominate their markets and a lot of mexican uh countries uh companies in mexico are blue blue trip than the s p i don't know if you find a lot of blue chips outside of the u.s all right tom we're to leave it there always great to get your insights topless of fun strat um we had a couple of screens that shows uh tom's epicenter stocks names like best buy monster borg warner timkin polti was an interesting one delano i'm wondering which stocks do you like in terms of epicenter you know melissa i'm really looking at you know target as one of the stocks that i like here and i think the biggest thing for target was they really outperformed competitors on a share price basis over the over the over the time of the pandemic right and the biggest thing now is as we reopen what happens with the to the companies that really performed well target and the companies that were essential companies during that time target also had a strong e-commerce strategy and that bowled well for the for for target and now we look forward you know target also has strong essentials strong e-commerce but the reopening is a strong play for them going forward so target is one that i really really like at this time gracia you came in with the international angle is that what you're looking at next i hear that from a lot of people they're behind us in terms of the reopening and so maybe that's the next place for value yeah yeah for for me i'm in a stock called trinceo tse and that one has a a a higher leverage to the global economy or to europe versus the us so look for stocks if you if you want to buy an etf that's uh that's levered to to europe reopenings that's great but look for your names that have an outsized leverage to europe so maybe 60 percent europe 40 percent here or or thereabouts but you shouldn't look for just domestic names like the homebuilders because there's too much headwinds for them bk what i noticed in today's session was a lot of the commodities that had hit record highs coming off and i'm wondering if we're at a point where where we're seeing elasticity in other words the pricing is getting high and people don't want to pay it so the prices come back down and we reach that sort of natural point i think in some commodities we probably have i mean if you look at something like lumber and this is why pulte will be kind of interesting you know there is plenty of wood around the bottleneck is at the sawmill so prices have come up enough you can start hiring people there's demand there so i wouldn't be surprised to see those things you know something like lumber start to come down which again would be a really good thing for a polti homes their input costs would go down we already know they still have unbelievable demand um so you know of tom's epicenter socks that's the one that i'm going to be watching
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