저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 증시 버블·폭락 경고를 소개하되, 진행자들은 과거 적중 이력은 인정하면서도 단기 폭락 주장에는 회의적이며 시장은 여전히 신고가 흐름이라고 봄. 버리 경고 내용: 밈주식과 암호화폐가 폭락하면 개인 손실 규모가 국가 규모에 이를 수 있다는 극단적 발언을 함. 비트코인 기술적 분석: 3만 달러 지지선 재테스트 중이며, 이탈 시 2만 달러까지 하락 가능성이 언급됨. 최근 3만~4만 달러 구간에서 반등이 나옴. 진행자 반론: 버블 경고는 유동성 확대 때마다 반복되어 왔고 새로운 내용이 아니라고 봄. 나스닥100은 2020년 3월 170대 저점에서 350대까지 1년 반 만에 상승. 주택시장: 현재 주택시장은 위험하지 않아 2008년 위기와 다르다는 견해. 버리의 채권 공매도 및 버핏지표 언급: 채권시장 숏 포지션을 거론했으나 진행자는 근거가 부족하다고 평가. 버핏지표(시가총액/GDP)는 과열 수준이라는 점은 인정. 시장 전망: 단기적으로 폭락 여부는 불투명하며, 4일 연속 신고가 상태이므로 과열 신호를 인정하면서도 역행 매도는 하지 않겠다는 입장. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 버리의 단기 폭락 주장에 동의하지 않음.
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so michael bury comes back on twitter this week talking about the possibility of the ultimate of ultimate stock market crashes guys talking about a few reasons why the market could go down here in the next coming weeks to months so let's jump into a few of these right now uh in this uh kind of tweet rampage he goes on he talks a little bit about kryptos about this whole meme stock uh you know craziness that has been happening but does this really have any footing i guess first as far as uh the market is concerned when it comes to michael bury yeah let me look for anyone that doesn't know let's talk about michael murray of course from big the big short fame of course seeing the mark you know the housing bubble and and tremendous call by him and of course made a lot of money and was incredibly right about that so you know that's where he's coming from here he did jump onto twitter since has been removed but you can still find the archive tweets i just did pull up the article so you can see exactly what we're talking about here he said memes and cryptocurrencies will plummet uh big short investor who warned that the mother of all crashes uh is coming so i mean the this this is the key thing hype and speculation is is is uh doing uh is doing is drawing retail for the mother of all crashes when crypto falls from the trillions or main stops fall from the tens of billions main street losses will approach the size of countries that is some extreme extreme language that he's talking about here and then until he goes into some actual like technicals uh this one here is interesting trap bowls often fall for the latest support this of course referencing that 30 000 level here on on bitcoin now obviously we had that double up and and nice support balance there and you're getting another test of that level which i mean let's be realistic about it you already got a 30 to 40 bounce which gave you a nice little 25 to 30 return if you caught that bounce and again we're in the midst of another bounce off that level halfway towards that 40 000.
so is that is that a line in the sand at 30 is that something other people are looking at there's been plenty of other calls here sean for if 30 000 breaks on bitcoin you could have a move down into 20 000. so in that regard i don't know if he's saying anything that people haven't heard in terms of the market being in the bubble well every single one of these bull markets when we get free money coming out of the fed has been considered to be oh we're in another one of those bubbles you always get that type of an opinion coming through i just think everyone understands his track record before and thinks doom and gloom when you hear a name like his let's just look at some of the technicals and the fundamentals here uh always take a step back to do that before you consider you know reacting to news like this right sean i mean i would never i look t take him with in my opinion with a grain of salt i mean a lot of people could say look at this run here that the nasdaq has had i mean this is from march of 2020 okay guys this is the triple q's just looking at an equity side of it uh this is the nasdaq 100 just to show you the dramatic move 170 bottom to 350 right now so i know this was but even if you avoid this drop down right you get that pandemic obviously we've all lived through it but even if you don't get that and you could still draw a straight line here from 230 up to 350 in just over a year like you're talking about a year and a half so yeah i mean is it hard to call tops yes but he's been talking about that for a while not not just one week ago two weeks ago like if you were short into his calls so far you'd be hell wrong so you have to be very very specific with your time frames there is free money out right now um you know the feds are gonna stop spending and handing out some of this capital i believe anyways probably the right move who knows i need to get employment back going this is a little different than the housing crisis right now from what we know from toll brothers from everybody that's reporting the housing market is not in trouble right now so that's not what this play is about he's shorting the bond market into this talking about pigs flying 360 times like there's a whole bunch of rhetoric in here that i just don't think um is is really worth it right now um there's a lot of things that he's saying that in my opinion aren't really justified we'll just wait to see where it goes from here but the buffett indicator is stock market capitalization divided by gdp and he's pointing to that um and i don't know exactly what that is but what that number's at right now we'll figure that out but i i just look you can look at a lot of different metrics the market's going to be at an overbought level right now but i'm not standing in front of this freight train that's for sure and uh i guess he is market going to do what it's going to do regardless i mean we're at all-time highs that's the key point here guys and when we get to all-time highs it seems like anyone and everyone starts to come out of the woodwork saying oh it's over it's going to crash the market's going down and here's a whole bunch of reasons as to why we've seen that over and over and over again specifically with money managers trying to be the one who isn't going to lose a whole bunch of money when everyone else does so does the market go down that remains to be seen for the time being yes four days in a row all-time highs guys so it is what it is here's valeria hey guys thank you for sharing this information dear viewers please subscribe to this channel to see more great videos
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