저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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CPI 산정 방식이 정부에 의해 왜곡되어 실제 인플레이션을 가린다고 주장. 진행자(Mike)는 헤드라인 인플레이션 둔화 추세와 주거비 하락 가능성을 언급하나, Schiff는 재정적자와 과도한 정부지출이 근본 원인이며 금리 25bp 인상은 효과가 없다고 봄. 연준은 결국 인플레이션이 가속하는 상황에서 금리를 인하할 것이라고 예상하며 현재 금융위기가 이미 시작됐다고 주장.
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기본적으로 번역 없이 원문 영어 자막을 다듬는 작업이므로, 영어 원문을 자연스러운 영어 문장으로 정리합니다.
Yeah, let's talk about that for a second. I have two questions that come along with what you've already laid out. The first question is: how is the inflation rate calculated? That's a mystery, because it relies on the Consumer Price Index, and that's another big part of the fraud. In America, I know a lot more about the US CPI than I do about CPIs in other countries, but my assumption is that politicians are being dishonest everywhere. The inflation rate is like a report card. If our kids were responsible for grading their own report cards, it wouldn't be a shocker if they came home with all A's. That's the problem: we've hired the government to grade its own success in the economy, because high inflation would be bad.
So when the government measures inflation, it looks at prices. It's looking at an effect, not at the thing itself. Over the years, governments have changed the methodology for measuring price increases, so the CPI we use today is nothing like the one we used in the 1970s.
We're expecting inflation to come down. It's kind of a foregone conclusion. Does the Fed care about today's numbers? Not so much, because there's another CPI report coming up before they get to their next meeting on June 14th. We also get a PCE index inflation report before that.
We are expecting some news today that might disappoint the markets, which react to everything right away. Inflation is forecast to come in basically unchanged on the month. We're going to see no change at all in the headline number. We've got some energy price issues there, and the core, over just the last 24 hours, has been revised up to a 4.1% change for the month. That keeps the month-over-month figure only a tenth lower, so we're still well above the level the Fed is looking for, which is of course the 2% target.
To Mike's point about whether the Fed cares: you mentioned there's more data to come, so they'll get another chance to look at the inflation picture before they have to make any more decisions about rates. But as Vera Ram on the markets live blog pointed out to me this morning, we've had nine months of headline slowing. I suppose they take comfort from that trend, almost regardless of what today's data shows?
That is the feeling. They knew this would be, as they put it, kind of volatile, that you would have months where things don't go exactly as planned. But in general, inflation is coming down. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast indicator has always kind of forecast what's going to happen, and it shows a sort of flat, in-and-out pattern for inflation over the last couple of months. It looks like we're going to be stuck in the 5s for a while. But what they're counting on is that we'll finally see some rent reductions start to come through, maybe in the May numbers we get in June, and that will start us on the process down to the next level, which is closer to 4%.
Mike, thirty seconds here on rent levels. You mentioned shelter costs. Why are shelter costs decelerating faster, given that we are now entering or ending the rate-tightening cycle? Shouldn't we see a bigger effect?
We saw the effect at the beginning of this whole cycle, because rents were going up a lot. It takes a while, about a year, for the declines to get into the overall numbers. We saw declines starting during the pandemic, and now they're flattening out and going up again. But we should see the declines from a year ago in rents show up fairly soon.
Peter, interpret why you believe the Fed tightened rates 25 basis points this time.
Well, that's exactly what the market expected them to do, and that's what the Fed does: what the markets expect. But it's not going to do anything to bring inflation down. The elephant in the room with respect to inflation is fiscal policy. It's the debt, not the ceiling, but the fact that we're running these massive deficits. Until the federal government reduces spending, these quarter-point rate increases are going to be completely ineffective. The problem is that Powell refuses to call Congress out. He hasn't mentioned that the driving force behind all the inflation they've been creating is reckless government spending. As long as the government keeps spending, inflation is going to get worse, and so is the current financial crisis. Nobody wants to admit we're in a financial crisis. It is worse than the one we had in 2008; it's just getting started. Ultimately, the Fed is going to cut, but it's going to cut as inflation is accelerating.
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