저자: He-ManPablo · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 중국 주식 매수를 근거로 중국·홍콩 주식(알리바바, JD, MGM, 빌리빌리, 바이두, PDD)이 저평가 구간이라며 매수 관점을 제시하고, 미국 주식은 과열로 보고 비중을 낮추라는 주장. 마이클 버리 매수 내역: 최근 24시간 내 여러 미국 주식을 매도하고 알리바바, JD, MGM 리조트를 신규 매수. 이에 따라 포트폴리오의 약 1/3이 중국 관련 주식으로 구성된 것으로 해석. 버리의 2022년 10월 25일 트윗: 항셍지수가 1997년 수준으로 돌아갔다고 언급. 당시 GDP는 18배 성장했으나 주가는 PER 7배, EV/매출 1배, 장부가 1배 수준이라는 주장. 이 날이 중국 주식의 역사적 저점이었다고 설명. 미국 증시 전망: 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴 차트와 비교하며 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 경기침체 가능성이 있어 금리 인하 후 주가 폭락이 올 수 있으나, 단기 반등은 3~9개월 지속될 수 있다고 봄. 미국 증시는 과열 상태이며 최소 5~10년간 횡보할 위험 제기. 중국 증시 전망: 항셍지수는 약 28~29 부근까지 조정 후 반등 가능성 제시. 중국 인터넷 ETF KWEB는 105에서 약 17까지 하락 후 반등 중. 항셍테크지수는 아직 2년밖에 안 된 지수이며 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 크립토 및 기타 발언: 짐 크레이머의 '1월 초 크립토 및 중국 주식 매도' 조언에 반박. 비트코인은 경기침체 후 대폭락이 올 수 있으나 현재는 큰 반등 구간이라고 봄. 중국 주식은 상장폐지 위험 때문에 홍콩 거래소에서 매수한다고 언급. 개별 종목: 빌리빌리는 8.20달러에서 약 30달러까지 약 4배 상승, 20달러 부근을 매수 구간으로 제시. 바이두는 두 배 이상 상승했고 중국의 AI 대장주로 평가. PDD도 긍정적으로 언급. 10개 이상의 중국 주식을 추가로 관찰 중이라고 밝힘. 리스크: 경기침체 시 추가 하락 가능성, 미중 디커플링에 따른 상장폐지 위험, 중국 주식의 신뢰성 문제 언급.
다듬은 글
okay folks Michael Berry The Big Short the really really big short the famous movie from The Big Short Aura mahim Oscar winner played by Christian Bale has done some amazing trades lately first of all he said sell everything and then he has been doing some major big buying lately He-Man once again coming to you from the beautiful Dubai behind me right here so um why am I in Dubai why am I in in you know places like Kuala Lumpur and Dubai that's because this is what we're trying to talk about today Michael Berry has made some purchases of major stocks internationally outside of the United States and as my Discord knows I've been on this tour around the world and I'm broadcasting from different locations because I want to see the places which are going to benefit from what's up and coming um personally I'm a little bit down on U.S stocks let's have a look for example Michael Berry has been saying sell and sell everything now we all know he thinks that uh there's some major issues coming with the U.S stock market that it is in a bubble he's famous for wanting this he got the 2000 crash right he got the 2008 famous city right and they made the movie The Big Short about him but is he right this time and what he has tweeted recently is the word one word maybe right Michael J Barry and he has put this chart of the year 2001 and 2002 this is essentially the.com crash and it's basically we have this crash here and looks like the stock market has bottom it made a big rebound right lasted for about see from September to March so this is looks like six-month rally topped and then came down again right for a further one leg down and he said maybe maybe this is gonna happen uh personally as you all know uh for folks who have been following me I've been saying that my thinking is that well I've been saying you know for the longest time that I think there is probably one more leg down uh that's because there is likelihood of some sort of recession coming in the United States we cannot rule that out and if there's a recession coming in the United States then we have one more leg down and that's when you actually see interest rates being cut interest rates going down and that's when the stock market crash comes for now we can enjoy a rebound for three months six months or even nine months so what has Michael J Barry been buying lately Michael Barry so let's have a look at this so basically we can see the new Breaking News over the last 24 hours he's at Michael Berry has just sold these stocks right sold these stocks but he's bought these new stocks three of those three of those are interesting because he says Baba JD and one of them is uh is a casino stock major Casino stock what does that all mean basically means 18 is portfolio is now comprised of Chinese stocks and I would actually say it's more than that why would I say it's more than 18 percent because Alibaba JD our Chinese stocks listed in on the NASDAQ exchange right they're listed in the US but also listening Hong Kong but also MGM Resorts what's MGM Resorts we all know MGM is basically this big gambling casino stock that he's got now check this out so MGM Resorts right he has just bought a lot of those as well MGM if you travel around the world right like Pablo has been its main business is actually no longer in Las Vegas it's a gambling stock but its main business is now actually in a place called Macau which is actually a Chinese city right right next to kind of very close to Hong Kong so he's basically betting that covert is going to end mark is going to reopen and these Chinese Gambler is going to flood back into a place like Macau and um that is why so three stocks three stocks there's something like one third of his portfolio right now are all betting on Chinese stocks now let's look back at why he did this was this a sudden move no see look at this even a while ago he basically said this was October 25th October 25th last year he said me the new boss same as the old boss what he's talking about is when Xi Jinping was re-elected and a lot of people including folks in my Discord you know panicked and basically thought Chinese stocks are going to crash turns out that was the date of the exact bottom the exact historical bottom he's saying the Hansen index has recently hit 1997 levels 25 years later yet GDP has multiplied grown 18 times during that time in 1997 the valuations were 20x earnings 10x EV sales 3x tangible books now it's seven one one so basically seven times earnings one times EV sales one times tangible books and note three of the last premieres served three terms again he's referring to Chic back there so the index that he's referring to is actually the Hang Seng Index uh Hang Seng Index here and basically he was talking he made that tweet on this day when basically exact bottom when everybody was panicking when everybody was kept panicking because she got elected for a third term uh now the thing is he's compared why he's he's saying since for 17 years is because have a look at this uh I mean this is all old news to folks in my Discord because folks in my Discord have seen me talk about this hundreds of times I don't talk about it as much on social media because there are a lot of dumb people who are going to make dumb comments including with this video but you know good luck to you lose some more money so this is 1997 right this is 1997.
and basically when he made that tweet the valuation of the Hong Kong stocks or the price of Hong Kong stocks essentially went to 1997 level so 25 years even though GDP has grown 18 times it's still at the same price right it's an amazing valuation right now so this is a chart I've drawn for our folks in my Discord I said the entire Hong Kong index is going to make a pullback to probably around here and looks like it's on its way of doing so now um another way we could look at the Hong Kong index is the hung the Hang Seng Tech index because there's a tech stocks that are benefiting the most it's not really an old index it's only been around for a little bit just about two years so but we can still see right it's got a lot of rallying to do even just to get to you know right 50 recovering even 50 of his previous losses so boom boom boom this is a weekly chart pull back somewhere around here and then offer goes um so now for example two of the stocks he's been okay I'll show you guys one more one more is one more way of watching the U.S stocks is look at this k-web kweb's list in the United States it's the crane shares uh uh China internet ETF it's basically an ETF that holds China internet stocks now you can use it as a good proxy for where the Chinese stops stocks are going so it went from 105 down to around uh 17.
so that's kind of like a 83 uh that's kind of like a like a 82 crash so basically now we've we've had a bounce and um I think a lot of people we might Discord know this by the way videos like this I post in my Discord first for two or three days before I put it out onto the uh onto the overall market now we've been watching this um this is a weekly chart by the way we've been watching this pullback this is the path that I had drawn out ahead of time didn't quite go as high as I hoped or expected but it's been a a massive massive rally I think it's going to pull back just under 30.
say around 29 point or 28 around here right and basically off we go again um so the two names that Michael Barry has uh has named the two stocks he bought are JD and Alibaba and the gambling one so JD is an Alibaba are both kind of like kind of like Amazon of China MGM is a gambling stock that mainly Works in Macau China now the ones that I have a bunch of stocks that I like now here's um here's one of them for example uh like oops no wait now this is myself the two that I like are kind of like Billy Billy Baidu and also uh PDD right so that was against Jim Cramer who said good chance again to get out of crypto he said this in early January and sell out of Chinese stocks as neither can be trusted well as folks who've been following me know especially people who might Discord that I've been bullish on crypto for a small small Bull Run or a big bounce I call it I think it still eventually come back if we get that recession and have a big crash later this year or early next year but for now we get a big bounce and he's saying crypto and Chinese stocks can't be trusted good chance to get out I've been saying early January no this is the chance to get in into stocks such as Billy and Baidu and PDD and let's have a look so for example um now Billy is a stock that I've spoken about a lot in my Discord let's have a look on the on the daily chart uh it's kind of like the I guess kind of like the YouTube of China a lot of young kids seem to like it had it I made a tweet uh or a message into our Discord as Orem but on this day right October 25th 24th historical bottom we've been buying since here of course on the way down and then when it pulls back we've got some more buy orders as well as you can see this pink Zone uh roughly twenty dollars were under is where my buy orders will be again but however this is on the NASDAQ exchange right of Billy Billy oh by the way it's made from say 8.20 to almost 30 dollars so almost a 4X 4X run in a matter of in a matter of two months in a matter of two and a half months so it's being a blistering run for a stock it's not a crypto by the way this is a stock 4X in in two and a half months um so but however I'm buying these stocks under on the Hong Kong exchange because there's always a threat of delisting because us and China are not getting along there's decoupling so there's the threat of the listing of these stocks on the NASDAQ or on the New York Stock Exchange so I buy them on the Hong Kong exchange instead uh so for example if you look at um if you look at this that's the it's the same stock but listed on the on the Hong Kong exchange right this is Billy Billy listed on the Hong Kong exchange and it's priced differently because that's the Hong Kong dollars price but that's fine you know it's it's kind of essentially the same thing another one is Baidu that I've been talking about in my Discord quite a lot um and this one has now more than doubled and is it is actually seen as uh the the E.I darling of China the AI darling of China so basically these are the two stocks that I talk about a lot in my Discord and obviously there's much much more um there's like probably 10 or more Chinese stocks or that are trading in Hong Kong or traded on the New York Stock to change or the NASDAQ that I'm watching now as well um so for the people who are paying attention who are wondering why I'm traveling around the world is because I think there's a lot of overvaluation in U.S stocks right now it can push up a little bit more but it risks it risks a big crash and even if there's no crash it might go sideways for the next five years or even 10 years right I'll leave this video here for history um for whereas the training stocks have been beaten down so much you look at the Hong Kong stocks they're the same price as 17 25 years ago right yet they've yet they've grown 18x since then right in terms of GDP
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