저자: HemanPablo · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 베리는 OpenAI·Anthropic 등 AI 기업의 IPO가 AI 버블을 키운다며 시장 급락이 이를 막을 수 있다고 주장. 10년물 미국채 금리는 약 5.3%로 2002년 이후 최고 수준이며 주택담보대출 등 경제 전반에 부담. 나스닥·S&P500은 신고가 근처지만 신저가 종목이 신고가 종목보다 383개 많아 시장 쏠림이 심함. 영상은 버블이 앞으로 8~9개월 내 꺼질 것이라 추정하며, 베리가 비트코인은 초기 급락 후 회복, 금도 하락 가능성을 언급한다고 전함. 영상 후반은 거래소 프로모션 광고.
다듬은 글
historic market crash is looming. The collapse of the US dollar. Bitcoin, crypto, the stock market—everything will collapse. This is what Michael Bury is calling for now . He says that for the good of humanity, the market needs to plummet to prevent OpenAI and Anthropic from going public. He wants the market to crash right now and prevent the two biggest and best AI companies from going public.
You might say, "Oh, this Michael Bury, he was right about the 2008 crisis, but then he was wrong many times." You've been predicting the peak all along, have n't you? A broken clock shows the correct time twice a day. As the saying goes: "A broken clock shows the right time twice a day." But what if this time he is right again ?
He was right about the 2008 crisis, but how did he hit the mark again? Today we will look at why a collapse of this magnitude would virtually destroy the US Treasury bond market and the dollar. Your mortgages, houses, bank accounts. This will destroy everything, right? For the most part, I don't think Bitcoin will survive the first few months.
Then, when they start printing money, Bitcoin will recover, but be prepared for a sharp drop at the beginning, because it is a risky asset. Maybe, not even possible, but gold will also go down. So what makes this a brutal double whammy? What makes this a brutal double whammy is the fact that the yield on the 10- year US Treasury bond has skyrocketed like shitcoin.
You look at this and think, "What kind of shitcoin is this?" This chart literally looks like a Zcash or Near chart. Here's the Near chart, which is very popular right now , right? Near AI's crypto supercoin, and the graph is very similar to the yield on the 10- year US Treasury bond. See for yourself.
Since when is this actually the case? The last 3 years or so: peak, reversal, peak, reversal, peak, false breakout. Boom, we break through the level and reach a new high. And if you look at Near, the situation is the same, right? Just a little longer. We have a peak, a reversal, a peak, a reversal, right?
Boom, we're going right through, aren't we? So, I don't know what to tell you, friends. Does this mean that Near will go much higher, or does it mean that the yield on the 10- year US Treasury bond will rise even more? This looks like shitcoin now, right? I mean, yeah, they call everything but bitcoin shitcoin, so essentially that's what near is.
It now behaves like a shitcoin, like a memecoin. And you can even see this pattern in Zcash as well. Look, Zcash. Boom, boom, right? Pivot-top, pivot- top, breakout, and we're just going up, right? So, am I talking about Zcash and near here, or am I talking about the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond?
This is not what should be happening to the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond. So, uh , I made this video just four days ago, saying, "We're in for a massive market crash." We just reached 3. 5.31%. And I said, "Look, once we cross 5.29, we've essentially hit a 26-year high." 26-year-old maximum, let's go.
Let me show you, friends, what it looks like. So, here it was 5.02. We went through this when I was making the video about a week ago. But here the maximum was in 2007, 19 years ago, at 5,289. We just crossed that in the last 24 hours. We reached 5.30. So this is essentially the highest level since 2002.
2002. This is essentially during the dot-com bust, the dot-com bust era. This was essentially during the SFC era—the global financial crisis, and we are higher now than we were during the SFC. We are actually at the same level as during some stages of the dot-com crash. And in fact, Michael Burry is trying to say that we are now in our own bubble collapse.
That was the dot-com bubble, right? It was the dot-com bubble. This is essentially an AI bubble, right? And this is also my opinion. But he obviously goes much deeper into his research. And let's see why he says that, okay? First of all, first of all, the general direction that he's talking about is that we should stop these IPOs coming to the market.
Let's crash the market first. Here he asked Grok for a resume and says, "Go ahead , Grok." This is him, by the way. He...he calls him Michael J. Burry. Yes? 2 million subscribers. He calls himself " Cassandra without chains." "Cassandra without chains." Cassandra is a famous Greek oracle who predicts the future, but the tragedy is—it was a tragedy, a Greek tragedy— that no one believes her when she makes this prophecy, because, just like now, no one will believe me, no one will believe Michael Burry.
You see a bunch of idiotic comments. You'll see a bunch of idiots in the comments writing [ __ ] like, "Oh, when Bitcoin hits 200k, he'll make another video." Where is my video where I say Bitcoin will reach 200k? I am not deleting any videos. I've been wrong about my predictions before, but none of these videos have been removed, right ?
So, in any case, idiots cannot be prevented . You can't warn idiots because they're stupid, right? Just read the comments section, okay? And by the way, if you like what I'm doing here, if you think I'm being useful, click " like". Click the like button. This is a resume from Grok. Burry sees the AI boom as a dot-com-style bubble.
He argues that OpenAI and Anthropic's nearly $1 trillion valuation is based on unprofitable large language models that are not AGI, and they face the commoditization of computing power. What does this mean? Facing the commoditization of computing means they are facing Chinese AI on much cheaper power that is just as good as, say, Kimmy 3.
Like QN, right? They are just as good. And that's what's called commodification, because it means it becomes a commodity. There's nothing special about what you have, right? It's like buying carrots , cabbage, gold. You can't say that my gold bar is better than yours. These are just goods, right ? Shows weak long-term ROIC— return on invested capital— it is weak in the long term .
Return on invested capital: A large-scale IPO will solidify the mania and lead to irrational capital allocation on a historic scale , right? Basically, this means that everyone will rush there through the media : your CNN, Fox News, or any CNBC, Yahoo will be promoting it. And it will actually bring trillions of dollars into an area that doesn't deserve that much money because the Chinese do it much cheaper.
For example, I think China spends about 7 or 8 times less and gets similar results. And their large language models work almost as well, but 7 times cheaper. A hard market drop now could prevent a bigger crash later and greater economic damage, right? I'll say it again . A hard market drop right now could prevent a bigger crash later and greater economic damage.
So, he's actually saying he agrees with Grok, and that's great. Go, Grok! Do you want short-term pain now or long-term pain later? So what will happen to Bitcoin, crypto, stocks, gold, and silver during this time? First, let's take a look, shall we? Pablo's Champions League. This is Pablo's Champions League, right?
Here she is. Pablo's Champions League is where Pablo trades with all these champions, right? This is the exchange I use, for example. Here is my oil deal. And most of the trading here is on a KYC-free exchange, right? This means you don't need to show any documents. This means that even the exchange cannot see who you are.
So, the stock exchange doesn't see you, the tax office doesn't see you, the FBI, the CIA, nobody sees you. The tax office doesn't see you. Complete confidentiality, right? So I set up this contest with them, exclusively for the Pablo Human link, win up to $10,000. Trade and get 20% cashback. Limited time, friends.
Only 17 days left. And look at these champions, real trading aces, right? All these guys already have over 1 million, but I think a lot of them will easily get to 5-10 million. The top two, top three guys will easily take over 15 million, but, you know, it's not necessary to trade that much. Look at this.
Simply top up your account with 100 bucks and you will receive $20 cashback. Invest $80, $ 100, get $200 cashback. Do you get the idea? You don't need to trade much. Just get into the top 60 and win a prize. Top 60, you will receive a prize, because this is not a competition for the entire exchange.
This is a little competition for Pablo's followers who follow the link below, right? So, if you're watching this on YouTube right now, the link is in the description below. The link is in the description below. But if you're watching on another platform, like this one, that's fine too. Just go to my profile page and click on the Stan link.
Or on other platforms like this one, it's fine . Just go to my profile page and click on the Stan link. And this should be the first offer that comes up, because it's a great deal. Okay, back to the markets, friends. And remember, this great offer is only available through the Pablo Human link for a limited time.
Only at the Pablo Human link for a limited time. So , Michael Bury's main argument is that these companies are essentially unviable. They face too much competition from China, and they are investing trillions in it . And all of your money and your parents' money will be sucked in there because you have a retirement account.
You have a retirement account. You have a pension fund. You have an investment fund. Your parents have a 401k retirement plan. And you say, “Oh, I’m not going to buy Anthropic or OpenAI. I know they're overvalued, Pablo, but you're going to buy them because your mutual fund, your pension fund, your 401k—they're all going to buy QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF.
They will all buy SPY, Spider ETF, SP500 ETF. This is all already laid out. These two companies will be added to the SP500 ETF, to the Nasdaq ETF within one to two months after listing. That's how the system works. So, you will pay for it . Isn't that right? It says "Concerned Cassandra Unchained." This is Michael J.
Bury, right? And he essentially provides a forensic report on the five largest hyperscalers. And we can say that his analysis boils down to this. Ahem. You can look at it yourself and see what the problem is, right? He simply summed up the performance of these five companies. And especially one of them—Oracle, showing what Oracle's problem is.
We can see this here too. It was...And you can say that it's just his guess, because he doesn't have all the data on Oracle. But this is the prospectus of Anthropic itself, and this is what they show. So, the revenue is only 4.6 billion. But they are asking for an estimate of 2 trillion, 2 trillion.
They're essentially asking, they're... issuing a 5% stock offering. 5% of the offer is, in fact, $100 billion . So they're asking for $100 billion , right? And look at this. This is a good summary. So they have 4.6 billion in revenue, right? Over the past year. In 2026, it grew. But also $8.6 billion in operating losses.
And $42 billion in net loss, right? And they also warned that 25% of the revenue comes from just two customers. That is, if these two customers leave, you immediately lose 25% of your income. Don't worry about income growth. Don't worry about income growth. He falls. You immediately lose 25%. Many top corporate clients, many large institutions, companies that work with them , don't have long-term contracts, right?
They can cut costs and leave at any moment. What if they go to much cheaper Chinese AI, huh? No , Pablo, they will never switch to Chinese AI. Nobody trusts Chinese AI. It's open source, bro. This is open source, open source. It's like Linux. They will never switch to Chinese AI, CCP, blah blah blah, blah blah blah.
Okay, so what if they go to...to OpenAI? This is an American company. It's just their competitor. What will happen then? If they just go to another American company. Or, God forbid, Grok or super xAI— this is Elon Musk's company. I know she's lagging behind now. What if they catch up in a year or two?
But look, Anthropic themselves say this. They say that the Chinese AI with open weights, GLM, is from the company Zhipu. Um, " atlas of knowledge," if in English. Zhipu. These are stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, right? I told you about them back in February. Since then, they have grown eightfold .
Ever since I predicted it. And this is just a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It creates cyber exploits almost as effectively as their own Mythus Preview, right? In fact, they themselves admit that China has it, and it is an open scale. They said it was an open scale. Open scales mean you can see what's inside.
It's like Linux. If there are any bugs, any tracking or spyware, you will see it. Works almost as well as what they created. And since electricity is much cheaper in China, essentially half of American small businesses are already using Chinese AI. And this number will only grow, right? Here's an analysis from Yahoo Finance, they're certainly not the smartest, but they're just presenting the facts, right?
They want to raise $100 billion at a valuation of $2 trillion. Estimated at $2 trillion. This instantly makes them the third or fourth largest company in the world. Despite an operating loss of $8 billion , Nvidia's new chip has reduced the value of tokens by 35 times and reduced the room for revenue.
Aha. So, I mean, do what you want with it, because the numbers are right here. The numbers they published themselves, right? That's all...This is actually from their own prospectus, which they are trying to lure investors with. $8 billion in damages, $42 billion in net loss. Everything is here. They ...they, you know, I'm sure the 2026 numbers will look better, but what Michael Bury is saying makes sense.
The only... The only thing we really have to worry about is, will this be the case when it collapses? Is it 2 weeks from today? Is this 2 months from today? Is it 2 years from now? I don't... Like I said in my last video, well, that was three or four videos ago. I don't think we have three or four months, three or...I don't think we have 2 years left.
I think it's somewhere between now and, actually, the middle of next year. I think by the middle of next year, right? So that gives us about 8-9 months. And here is one of the signs. This is the New York Stock Exchange High-Low Index, right? The New York High-Low Index essentially means how many stocks on the New York Stock Exchange have reached new highs and how many have reached new lows.
Right now, let's take a look. The stock market is at another huge all-time high, right? You look at the stock market right now, essentially the stock market is at Yeah, SPY is near its all-time high. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. Yes, very close to a new historical high. And while that's happening, you still have...you still have...you would think that a lot of stocks are near or reaching new all-time highs, not near or reaching new all-time lows , right?
Because the stock market is at a new all-time high. But still , look at this. The number we have now was minus 429 stocks a week ago, which means there are 429 more stocks reaching new lows than there are stocks reaching new highs. And even this week, after a brief bounce, it's minus 383. That means there are 383 more stocks hitting new lows than there are stocks hitting new highs.
How can this be a healthy market? It basically means... It basically means, I would explain to you how... What does it mean ? So you're looking at me and you're saying, "Oh, the NASDAQ and the SPY are at new all-time highs. We're so close to a new all-time high. How is it that so many companies are at all- time lows , at new all-time lows, right?
Sorry, not all-time lows, but new all-time lows. Well, let me put that into human terms for you. So, basically, what it means is that the market is very concentrated right now . Like, 25% of the market is mostly chips, right? Semiconductor stocks, AI stocks, and the "Magnificent Seven," where five, maybe six of them -- besides Tesla, and Tesla too -- have been riding the AI trend, right?
So those stocks -- the " Magnificent Seven," Oracle -- well , Oracle too. And the AI chip stocks, right? The semiconductor stocks . They're doing well, relatively speaking, that's why they're up here. And most of the stocks, more than half of them , right? More half of them—right down here, making new annual lows, right?
Annual lows. The whole market is actually holding on to about 30 stocks. Out of 3,000 stocks in the market, there's probably only 30, 40, or 50 that are doing well right now and supporting the whole market. And on top of that, we have this crazy situation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury breaking out , right?
Massive new highs in 20 years. This is a 25-year, quarter-century high that we're at right now. And I've said many times before , this is important because it determines the cost of borrowing for everyone. On the surface, this reflects the cost of borrowing on U.S. Treasury bonds; if the U.S. government wants to borrow for 10 years, it has to borrow at that rate.
And for 30 years, they have to borrow at that rate, which is also rising rapidly. What is this? Yes, it's also a 25- year record. But This also applies to people who are trying to buy a house. Your mortgage rate is built about 2% above that. So if it's 5.6%, your mortgage rate is 7.6%, 7.8%, right? Or even 8%.
That means nobody can buy houses, right? Nobody can afford to buy a house if they have to borrow money. Who doesn't need a mortgage to buy a house? Who has $1 million or $2 million to just buy a house outright, you know, for cash. So it's hitting every part of the economy. And at this crazy moment, they decided to go all in on AI.
That's why we're in very dangerous territory. But as I said, seize the moment, because this bubble may not burst for a few more weeks or even a few more months.
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