THIS IS WHAT HAPPEN TO GOVERNMENT BANKS! - RAY DALIO #bitcoin #crypto #dalio

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달리오는 미국이 재정적자 확대로 국채 공급이 급증하는데 수요는 부족해 금리 상승 또는 중앙은행의 국채 매입(화폐 발행)이 불가피하다고 본다. 이 구조에서 달리오는 달러 기반 자산의 신뢰가 흔들릴 수 있으며, 중국의 자본시장 개방과 디지털 위안화 확대로 기축통화 경쟁 구도가 생길 것이라고 주장한다. 핵심 리스크는 국채 매도 압력이 금리 급등 또는 통화 증발로 이어져 금융자산 전반에 부정적이라는 점이다. 다만 그는 이런 전환이 빠르게 일어나지는 않을 것이라고 덧붙인다. 비트코인에 대해서는 직접적인 가격 전망을 구체적으로 언급하지 않았고, 공급·수요 불균형과 통화 경쟁이라는 거시 구조를 설명하는 데 초점을 맞춘다.

다듬은 글

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01. so how do you think about digital an alternative currency if you don't want to focus specific bitcoin but an alternative currency in a situation like that what we know there's going to be this massive vine of um for global parameters between the dollar and the rumby is that for me i i think just to look at the mechanics of it and the supply demand of it um look uh we're handing there's this arc of a currency and at the point we're producing a lot more debt because we have to give people checks you know you've got to give people money and the federal government the central government is not allowed to produce money but it can direct it and so for political reasons for social reasons all these reasons they're giving out a lot more money so that a lot more money the central government means a lot more debt so you have to sell that debt and um you have to sell that to a world um out there most of uh a lot of the debt is held by foreigners and because the dollar was the world's reserve currency by the way dollar currency equals debt um so if you hold a currency that means you're holding a debt whether it's a short-term debt or a long-term debt but you're holding a promise to receive this paper money essentially that can be printed and so what we have is a supply demand imbalance we have to sell a lot more debt to a lot of those who are holding a lot of debt too much debt in terms of their percentage and those include places like china which holds a trillion dollars of debt and that you have to sell that and they don't want to buy that as much as they do so if you don't have the demand that's large enough to buy the quantity that'll be sold and we won't then um the central bank mechanistically is in a position where um they will either see interest rates rise and having the rationing of that debt which is negative for the economy and agent for financial assets or they will print money and buy that debt and i think they're going to print money and buy the debt so now you have if you think of the world step back and think about international big sovereign wealth funds central banks and the like you also have the emergence of an alternative place in the form of china in terms of investment don't think in terms of just the currency but the investment so they've opened up their capital markets um in 2015 you could invest in only two percent of those capital markets now you can invest in 60 of those capital markets and they're offering um um higher yields and there's a balance of payments so i think you're going to see um a supply demand problem in the united states and a relative movement so if you take let's say a bond in china um it will it's more attractive in a sense for its interest rate and so on so and then china is really um on the lead in um a digital currency its own currency and increasingly i believe that will compete so international investors and perhaps american investors will start to think which one of those do i own and then there'll be more choices and that'll be a competitive environment we haven't been in a competitive environment because the dollar has been the world's reserve currency now i'm not saying that this shift is going to happen quickly but in answer to your question um given the overweighted already overweighted nature of portfolios around the world and everybody and then uh that's other supply uh and you look at bonds which is dollars equal like i i if you're a pension fund and how's the 60 40 working you know what are you going to get out of the 40 so you could get rather not not even not enough money to not enough demand to buy those bonds that are going to be sold you could get selling of those bonds and that if you have the selling of those bonds then the central bank will be put into a very difficult position of either having interest rates rise a lot or having to monetize as it's been happened before this has all happened in history in the british pound so um that's what that you your that's the answer to your question in my opinion about the supply and demand and it won't be just dollars in bitcoin you