원문 보기
y you know why so many bears keep getting this market wrong it's the fed they know nothing on a day where the fed presented the results of its monthly meeting surprise surprise they kept rates low we had your endless chatter about how the stock market's in a bubble of the fed's making after a good day tailgating 160 points has to be jumped one point two four percent nasdaq fall to 1.35 you need to know that i think this is totally nuts yeah right the all-powerful fed create an environment where equity is the only asset class worth owning and bonds are for suckers it's all our central bank possibilities assistance let's say about the bavarian illuminati uh how about the freemasons you know what i am sick and tired of hearing that we're in a bubble that defends over inflating the price of stocks by printing money to keeping the economy moving believe it or not there's more to the economy than just the federal reserve and there's certainly more to the stock market first i'm not saying the fed doesn't matter of course it's important in theory they could raise short-term rates to three or four five and yeah that would crush the stock market among other things i know that would make the bears very happy i can practically hear them coming on air and praising the fed for giving investors a reasonable alternative with higher short-term rates but do you really think these critics believe a series of rate hikes would actually be good for any asset class do you think higher rates would produce more jobs or a better economy it's kind of important isn't it of course not see they would put millions of people out of work and cause a wave of bankruptcies and for what a better return from cds well there's something we're fighting for let me be crystal clear the bearish money managers who want rate hikes don't care about any of this collateral damage they are talking their book people hey i was a money manager i've hear them i know what they're doing they missed out on the rally and they need stocks to go down or else their hedge funds will go out of business it's about marketing people end of story there's no rational reason to raise interest rates with double digit unemployment paltry inflation of course they insisted inflation's about to start raging after that giant 2.2 trillion dollar stimulus package but we've been hearing the same story since 2009 oh yeah inflation's always just on the horizon all the spark guys come on and tell us about it it never seems to arrive the bears do have a smattering of history on their side they argue the fed needs to take away the punch bowl before people get carried away and they point out that it's an inflationary spiral is indeed hard to stop but they forget that a deflationary spiral is equally hard to stop think vymar okay and that's what i'd be worried about in a recession deflation makes everything you own worth less i lived through the 70s i have no love for inflation but inflation it's worse we've got enough problems right now we don't need to add a collapsing economy to the mix just because the purists don't think the fed should keep rates low again there's no serious argument for tightening in the middle of the slowdown the fed tried that in 1937 by the way and it caused a recession within the depression why would anyone want to repeat that mistake other than to get things down so they can make a lot of money and market themselves as good money managers second point there's only so much the fed chief can do to prevent the economy from collapsing and to quote scotty that legendary stock trader from star trek jay has given her all she's got his decision to buy some crummy corporate bonds to keep companies afloat including the cruise lines was absolutely brilliant and yes did you really buy their bonds no but get the point sure we've had a number of high-profile bankruptcies since the pandemic got started but most of these companies were already troubled jcpenney brooks brothers neiman marcus j crew they were living on borrowed time even before covet hit they they'd be doing barely in a decent economy pals will be trying to keep otherwise healthy businesses afloat until modern or pfizer or johnson johnson or astrazeneca can come up with the long-awaited much-loved god of worship vaccine the bears would have loved the more laissez-faire approach that forced carnival royal caribbean norwegian crews into chapter 11 weren't they candidates for it right uh wiping out their common stock so they could profit from the decline same with the airlines yeah short american let it go under without the fed's implicit backstop plus secretary mnuchin's work no one in the right minds would lend these companies money or buy their stock of the secondary offer you save the companies save the jobs it should not be controversial other than to the heartless econo bears that's my new name for them i like that to say that letting these industries go under would be a bad idea we can't handle that right now again i don't actually think pal is causing a bubble which raises all asset prices i think he's being prudent and recognized that many companies have been turned upside down by the pandemic and he doesn't want their employees or their shareholders to pay for it yeah he's effectively bailing these companies out but the alternative is millions more layoffs people in food lines people starving i don't want some money manager making a fortune because uh while people starve it's it's not right it's very czarist russia by the way third let's take the idea of the bubble head-on not the bubble head i'm not talking about this not this bubble head i'm talking about taking the bubble head on if you study the history of the market or as you're simply as old as i am as represented by this you know the fed has repeatedly been accused of creating acid bubbles yet here we are with the market a few percentage points from its highs watching zoom video here uh wear and mask and we can't believe oh here it is happen again money being made but what exactly is is this that fit this thing that's happening have the markets truly failed us during this period sure individual stock pickers have been able to isolate some big winners are they too big hey did the fed cause the huge gains tonight in paypal after the close did they did the fed do qualcomm hey was the fed doing corvo no not jose corvo corvo the semiconductor company the fed doesn't know anything about these companies i do they have the right chips at the right time good management good for them it's interesting we got a bunch of trillion dollar tech companies and right now the house of representatives is insisting that they got there via anti-competitive practices not an asset bubble it is the fed is an evil genius sister mother sister mother how about its best of our brainiacs doing what they do best attempted domination which lastly look really is impossible because they shouldn't they shouldn't throw the game should they should they be saying wow man we're really doing well let's just throw the fourth quarter you know spike the ball no when i look at these winners in this period i see companies with very smart executives that are simply great at what they do many of them have gotten a huge boost from the pandemic it's not j pal's fault that amazon's the best way to buy things when you're sheltering in place or afraid to go to the store finally on days like today when stocks levitate you can easily say well where else is the money supposed to go the fed's taking away all the alternatives wrong there are so many high yielding stocks out there that are actually okay then you can buy them if you want income it's just a question you gotta do some homework you don't need to be that creative to find something safe for the five percent yield but that means you have to actually open a book or whatever a cyber book of course the dividend stocks aren't the ones that are roaring here instead the winners are stocks of companies that are delivering huge earnings growth and giving us encouraging forecasts we just heard that from amd and starbucks this morning a pair of great companies that we own for the chapel trust which you can follow by joining the actionalertsplus.com club and they both did something they wouldn't do before you see they gave us guidance reinstated and that's what's causing this rally reinstated guidance confidence not jpal with low interest rates but american companies with higher forecasts that we didn't account on including profits from a weak dollar the bottom line hey go ahead you can call a bubble if you want you can call it antitrust if you want i don't care i call it the fed choosing not to destroy the entire economy for no good reason sure the fed could decide to tighten to please the bears need it down make a lot of money so they get big houses in the hamptons including one next uh well let's say the house in the hamptons i i just like i i could decide to punch myself in the face i mean why doesn't geez i don't know why don't you put all your money together in a big pile and light it on fire stuff the chimney kind of seems like a bad idea to me so the next time some bearish money manager says we need to destroy the economy in order to save it please remember most of these people making this argument need stocks to go down to make big money so that they can dominate so to speak and get really better houses than you have in the hamptons and unlike the fort titans who were grilled today they don't care how it happens or how many people will be hurt by their actions and wishes e
댓글 0