저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 우려 속 반등은 '기회'일 뿐, 중국 노출 종목은 차익실현하고 현금을 확보하라는 신중론. 시장 상황: 당일 S&P500 약 1.5%, 나스닥 약 2.1% 상승. 중국 경기 재개 기대와 정부 대규모 부양책이 랠리를 이끌었으나, 중국 상황은 실제로 개선되지 않았다고 판단. 중국 노출 종목: 중국 관련 소비·여행·관광주 중심으로 일부 비중 축소 권고. 중국 경기 정상화에는 시간이 걸린다고 봄. 미국 실적·기술주: 알파벳 실적에 대한 실망이 과도하다고 보고, 클라우드·유튜브 성장 기대로 매수 기회로 언급. 클라우드 관련주는 과열 우려와 함께 단기 불안 신호도 언급. IBM: 지니 로메티 CEO 사임 후 아르빈드 크리슈나 체제에서 클라우드 전략이 유효하다고 평가, 하락이 과도했다는 입장. 바이오: 소형 바이오 기업들의 치료제·백신 발표 기대감이 있으나 본인은 확신 부족. 정치 변수: 트럼프 정부 우호적 증시 환경과 민주당 경선 혼란, 탄핵 실패 기대가 증시에 우호적이라고 언급. 리스크: 바이러스 확산이 개발도상국으로 번질 경우 중국 경기 회복이 더 지연될 수 있음. 반등을 근거로 포트폴리오 재조정(수익 실현 및 매수) 권고.
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ke America I hope you will ment educate teacher put in never never me years that I think I start paying so much attention to cdc.gov cdc.gov the official website for the Centers for Disease Control the organization is responsible for protecting us from the corona virus outbreak CDC Cobb was a major reason the mark you could explode higher today now surging 48 points SNP polling one point five over set Nasdaq soaring 2.10% we don't really know how this epidemic will play out in China where it started the rest of the world for that matter where it's spreading but the CDC is indeed getting its arms around it and slowing it down hated by the president's decision draconian some would say to basically ban foreign nationals coming from China to our shores the result the virus hasn't really been able to spread with alacrity here not like you would have expected based on what's happening in places like you on what is the CDC saying well I'm gonna summarize it put it in English the basically saying that the illness is a medical crisis over there in China but it's only a public health crisis here in the United States and therefore it's manageable because we're real good at that when you're having a vaccine or a cure you need to use a quarantine and so far our quarantine a lot of critics didn't think it's good Adam it's working yes you see a lot of people walking around with masks a lot more carrying with Carell which really does drop my hands about people have Clorox wipes literally at their fingertips something that's not even included in terrific numbers that come to ported this morning the remarkable thing here is what I would call the CDC's new level of certainty when they addressed the corona virus outbreak last week oh boy they gave us little certainty about anything from detection to prevention now now they make it sound like the quarantine efforts are working and their diagnostic test is adequate I almost feel like they were being played it sounds some good the CDC scared us a little it's on Friday knocking 600 points off the down then we were confident as all get-out today we sent the Gallup another 400 points 600 400 up 100 yesterday we're almost back so are we good here can we stop worrying now I know a lot of people feel that way they think you just have to look through the valley of the shadow of the coronavirus and imagine everything's fine if everything's fine stocks can surge to new highs as they did today I'm sensitive to that I didn't see this rally coming today but you know what I'm maintaining one question stands high reservations first right now the markets saying that China will soon be back online their factors be humming again after a rough holiday season and that's why so many stocks with China exposure including Chinese stocks are roaring like Apple which Valley ten bucks however I worried that maybe that's a false sense of security about China because situation really hasn't improved there in fact the CDC tells us in their same rosy projections not going to you that's my word in there same certain projections that the number of infections in the death toll will keep climbing in China there's no solace over there in short China's not clear yet yeah it's possible we'll still be back online but it's also possible that things get worse than the Piercy before they get better and they don't come back online second the Chinese government has injected a massive amount of stimulus in their economy close to 250 billion not million billion in the past two days but I think that's masking how bad things really are over there that stimulus created a strain of positivity worldwide and our markets benefited big time too it also seemed to relieve the tightness and our bond market which sent yields higher which suggests that the flight to safety trade might be over meaning we're all more stable footing me unlikely to have a recession but let's be real between the illness and the quarantine that fear of going out the Chinese economy is slowing down so I used this rosy moment to reposition do some selling in stocks that are to leave into Chinese common consumer travel travel and travel I think those have gotten down outside third the earnings themselves have been terrific this week so when you take the virus off the table not that you really can do that but let's say you could take it off the table you got a bullish picture of the US economy taking particulars on fire I know alphabet' reported some seemingly disappointing numbers last night and I'm getting the feel that people think that that was the only sticker to me alphabets giving us opportunity we've been waiting for to pull the trigger company finally broke out the cloud and the YouTube numbers which should only get better and better so you got a low baseline yes even though it's not was down 2.5% today it's still in positive territory this week hey speaking of that you know was the hottest group of what was the cloud Kings now all the stocks we always talking about the Adobe's in the world they're way too high and there's no real reason for that strength though again I find this kind of action unnerving there's nothing driving these stocks up aside from a cessation of new IPOs but by the way does tend to bolster the group that's my mental algorithm signaling that we're still gradually wringing the register on our high flowers for the chapel trust you follow one by joining the action where's plus.com club we're making room to buy them back at lower levels because the next time there's some bad news on the coronavirus you gotta have some cash fair warning I hope monthly calls for the club I'm doing when this Thursday at 11:30 and the markets got in clobberin almost every single time while I am holding the call quite unnerving fourth we're getting a ton of chatter about how smaller biotech companies are closing in on either a cure for this disease or a vaccine in my own homework I am getting that but I don't feel certain enough to share it with you yet if the number of infected remains low here and the disease is slowed down here it does raise the odds of something worthwhile pans out the prospects for discovery are much better than they were during previous epidemics because we sequence the virus's entire genome I remember hopeful but I could be wrong we did get some discouraged some encouraging news from the FDA this evening that they have an emergency test for the disease although I thought we already had that but that's ok and that the odds of a mass epidemic now seemed relatively well I thought we had that assurance but that's ok fifth the crux of this worldwide rally is that the corona virus is manageable that it can overwhelm our system while that's true in the United States almost every market word a great deal today yet many of these countries are rari unlikely to contain the disease just because it's manageable for the u.s.
that doesn't mean it's manageable for them that's important that's what the w-h-o is worried about but that's why I was surprised to see so many industrials with major China exposure flying today an awful lot of things need to go right before China can regain that 1% of GDP that I think this disease has lopped off maybe some of this was simply short covering deftly here in the United States because the CDC's downbeat stance on Friday brought a ton of short sellers more on that later long story short we saw a rally in both the deserving and the undeserving finally while the rest of the world's markets Ward I think some of today's strength well I think it had to do with President Trump he loved him or hate him he's been great for the stock market between the democratic disarray in Iowa I don't know if you noticed that I think was pretty palpable and the anticipation that there impeachment effort will fail I think that's pretty empirical I'm betting on mark he gets it a boost political implications is what we call it how neutral can you get by the line today seem like a genuine relief rally me it was motivated by sense of relief that we'll make it through the epidemic intact or at least a much better shape than we fought a few days ago but let's not get ahead of ourselves to me this is an opportunity to do some portfolio reshuffling yes you take profits and the ones that shouldn't be up and you buy the ones that should when the market goes down I'm gonna go to Bill in Florida bill hey Jim yeah this is Bill and st.
Augustine Florida no ice nice the question that I have got um with the recent in euphoria where IBM CEO Ginni were many stepping down after an April 9th and she's announced the new CEO Arvind Christner the head of their cloud computing yet but although we should euphoria is this just a blip or is look like that IBM finally turning the corner first I don't think it should have been down that much second Ginni has crafted a strategy and it's a strategy that I think is a great one which is moving aggressively all into the cloud that was part of the reason why the mr.
Christian was named the CEO it's also another reason why Jim weathers remember they brought him in they bought red hat so I think that path when you consider how great the clouds doing with bugs so sizer how terrific the clouds doing with Amazon Web Services how excellent the clouds doing with the with the GU the Google platform don't believe the negatives they're wrong Thomas curry and it's doing a great job why not cash in for IBM there's room for one more I think there's a pulse bleep the China's economy to bounce back quickly to the front of an outbreak I don't want you to get over copier that's why I think you should use today's rally take some of stocks off the table that are lever to China because it's not gonna get better that fast I expect those names would be in a house of paint at least for a little while one man tonight after an update on the averages wondering who's driving this market right now I'm giving him my tank then Ivan urge you to be stayed to stay cautious in the face of the corona virus outbreak but does that fit but today's move yet - does it change the narrative but we've got to be unemotional about it we got to check the charts and Chipotle report it for the close tonight does this new attorney single it still got spice I know that this price I had for lunch mucho is hard to upset me I've got the exclusive k C
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