저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 14년간 큰 약세장 부재는 역사상 이례적이며 인플레·금리 재상승, 신규 초보 투자자 유입 등 과거 고점 신호가 나타난다고 경고. 정부부채·과잉 통화발행 우려, 1929·Nifty50 사례를 들며 시장 과열에 경계. 주식·채권은 고평가, 원자재(특히 은)만 상대적으로 저평가라고 봄. 다만 언제 매수할지는 불확실하며 자신이 아는 분야에만 투자하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
guy. As you know, it's been what 14 years since we had a serious bare market in the United States. And I'll use the United States since it's the largest market. And that has never happened in American history. We've never had such a long period without serious economic and financial problems. So, whatever is happening, we're getting towards the end.
Uh we see some of the signs. Inflation is rising again. interest rates are rising again. We see new entries coming into the new investors coming into the market and they call up their friends and say, "I've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's fun and you can make money and it's easy.
It's easy to make money." And so all the signs that the world has seen many times before are happening again. I don't know how much longer this will go on, but I do see worrying signs for the markets and therefore the world economy. Well, it always has been able to. I mean, if nothing else, the Federal Reserve can just print more money and they'll buy them up.
I mean, I'm not suggesting this is good, but that's the way at the moment anyway. The system still works and the US can print and spend and borrow and spend. that will someday come to an end or someday people will be on TV screaming about it but not yet. But when when you see it, Kai, when you see on the evening news that the man in the street is worried about all the government debt and the interest rates are going higher and higher and the guys are saying, "I don't care.
I'm not going to borrow any I'm not going to lend them any more money." Then you'll know the crisis is here. There's gigantic amounts of offbalance sheet debt in the US which will surpass I mean maybe Japan has a lot of offbalance sheet debt too. But to answer your question, yes, this worries me. I mean the bank of Japan every day the guy goes to the goes to work and prints money.
He prints more money and prints as much as fast as he can. He's a good Japanese bureaucrat. He does what he's supposed to. And this is going to lead to many, many problems. Not just in Japan, not just in the US, everywhere. Kai, you're in Germany. Even the Germans have problems now. There are German cities that have big debt problems.
Germany. My gosh, in my lifetime, that Germany was the paragon of virtue. Not anymore. Well, as I look around the world, Kai, I see that stocks in most countries either are or have been at an all-time high or near making new highs. The bonds and bonds have never been this high in the history of the world.
So, bonds are certainly a bubble. So, what's left? I property. Yes, you can invest in property and in some places it's great. But many property markets, New Zealand, Korea, I mean there are many property bubbles going on around the world. That really only leaves commodities that are cheap. I mean, silver is down 60% from its all-time high.
Sugar down more than 60%. So, the only asset class that I see where they're really cheap entities are commodities. That doesn't mean you can't lose money if you buy them, but that's the only place I see on a historic basis cheap prices. I guess US stock prices make me unhappy to use your words because they're that they're bubbles developing.
I mean, Apple goes up every day. You know, that's been a great country company. That does not mean it's going to be a great stock forever. Well, the since we're talking about the markets, the most worrying sign are all the new entries and the hyster developing hysteria which is taking place. These are signs that happen at the top of markets.
It's happened many times. If you haven't experienced it, you might have read about it. And that's what's worrying me probably the most because markets can go up and down and do all sorts of strange things. But eventually it's the investors who call the tune. And if we have a lot of speculative new and speculative in uneducated or inexperienced, I guess is a better word, inexperienced investors, it worries me.
Doesn't make sense to me. I've seen this movie before. Not the first time I've I've been to this rodeo. You know, there were back once upon a time there were in the market they were the nifty50 and the wisdom was you buy these 50 companies you don't ever have to worry about the stocks just buy them and forget them.
You know how that wound up. Uh but this has happened often in history in the 20s radio corp of America. I mean my radio is new and it was a gigantic stock. stock went straight through the roof always every week, every day. I mean, 1929 came along and ended that story. Well, I mean, this has happened before, guy.
Uh, all these young, I should say, not young, but inexperienced investors coming in and talking about how easy it is. It's not the first rodeo. I don't the market is not telling me the market I hope will tell me when to buy it because someday I'm going to see everybody's negative on silver and talk about how it always goes down and blah blah blah.
If that happens that the market will tell me to buy. But silver is used in solar energy as you well know and many other things. Uh I'm not sure when I will buy or what the catalyst will be. I just hope I'm smart enough to buy it before it skyrockets again. Well, the most important ad information for any investor is don't listen to the TV.
Don't listen to the radio or the newspaper. Just invest only in what you yourself know a lot about. Now, and everybody watching this knows a lot about something, whether it's cars or fashion or something. And that's where you become a successful investor. to stay with what you know. But people will tell you guy, "Oh, well that's boring." Be boring.
Be boring and invest in what you know. You will see major changes before I will because you look at it every day. It's your passion and that's how you become a successful investor. Don't listen to hot tips. A very strong word of advice. Hi, everybody wants to be re rich this week. Me too. But don't listen to our tips.
Jim Rogers gives a candid and cautionary reflection on the current state of financial markets. He starts by highlighting a significant statistic. It's been 14 years since the last serious bare market in the United States, which is unprecedented in American history. This sets the stage for a discussion about the signs pointing towards an imminent downturn.
Jim Rogers notes the resurgence of inflation and rising interest rates as key indicators. There's a concern about new, inexperienced investors entering the market driven by excitement rather than knowledge. This influx often precedes market peaks historically leading to speculative bubbles. And then Jim delves into broader economic issues such as government debt levels and the potential consequences of excessive money printing.
The speaker draws parallels to historical market collapses like the Nifty50 in the 1970s and the 1929 crash, cautioning against complacency amidst market exuberance. He identifies commodities as possibly the only undervalued asset class, contrasting with overinflated stock and bond markets. The emphasis on investor education and staying within one's expertise emerges as a key takeaway.
advice grounded in experience and skepticism towards mediadriven hype. Overall, Jim Rogers provides a sobering perspective on the current market euphoria, suggesting a potential downturn looms on the horizon due to unsustainable market conditions and speculative behavior. Here.
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