저자: TwoStupidGuysTradeStocks출연자 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 숏 포지션이 성과를 내고 있고, 시장은 200일 이평선 이탈 등으로 하락 위험이 커지고 있다. 마이클 버리는 2023년 하반기 풋옵션 등으로 대규모 숏을 잡았고, 2008년보다 큰 금액을 투입한 것으로 언급됨. 이 숏이 잘 작동하고 있다는 평가. S&P500(SPY)과 나스닥100(QQQ)의 200일 이동평균선이 주요 지지선으로 작용해 왔으며, 이번 주 SPY가 이 선을 하향 이탈했다고 진행자가 설명. 시장 폭(breadth)은 악화: 100일선 상회 종목 비율 약 17.5%, 200일선 상회 비율 약 24%로 매우 낮음. SPY·QQQ 상승은 상위 7개 종목(애플 약 11%, 마이크로소프트 약 10% 등 상위 10개가 약 30.5%)에 의존하고 있어 취약하다는 주장. 애플 200일선 이탈 후 재테스트 여부가 핵심 관찰 포인트. 11월 2일 전후 애플·마이크로소프트·아마존 등 실적 발표가 있어 변동성 확대 가능성 언급. 테슬라는 200일선 근처 또는 하회, 메타·구글은 100일선 하회 후 200일선 쪽으로 접근 중이라고 진단. 진행자는 손절 등으로 연초 이익을 대부분 잃었다고 언급. 대응: 진행자는 가격 하락 시 구글을 100달러·80달러 수준에서 분할 매수할 계획이며, 시장 급락 시 밸류에이션보다 투자심리 요인이 크다고 봄. 특정 종목 매수 의향 언급: 구글, 마이크로소프트, 메타(애플은 이미 충분 보유). 출연자 전망 요지: 시장 하락(숏) 우위 관점이나 확정적이지 않으며, 애플 이탈 여부에 따라 큰 하락 가능성 존재.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys TR Sox I'm Dylan and I'm buy and we're going to take a look at Michael B's short which turns out it's actually doing very well uh this is his second attempt at this he put a crazy amount of money more than he did in 2008 in the short it looks like he could have been right and there's something kind of nerve-wracking that's about to happen in the market we're going take a look two stupid guys TR STS love it all right so this is uh whales whale with oh boy whale wisdom thank you um he had byy puts Q puts you can see how much the market value is it's not like super accurate it's leverag but whatever um the date reported was over here on the right uh August 14th you see my arrow you can't but August 14th um that is not the date that he started it we're going to show you that but there's some interesting things that are about to happen so you can see my arrow right yeah all right cool this is where he would have bought the short somewhere in here we don't know the exact day we just know that when he was eligible to when he reported so this is the q's uh you can see he may have Ed this perfectly this blue line that's sloping upward that is the 200 day moving average okay that is the most important line in my opinion for directing Trends we've done um historical looks at this I have other videos on this where I went back 20 years and how it you can really determine a direction based off of if we're above or below it and if we hit it if it respects it that kind of stuff this week we fell below it on the Spy did not realize the Spy is not below the 200 day moving average that's wild it's a little bit rough um you can see here he may have gone the top on the Spy as well um I'm going to zoom out here a little bit so you can see this 200 moving average this is going back uh to beginning 2022 okay so almost two years you can see how well respected this line is right we have multiple hits if we pop up you want to see volume push through if you're going in the direction if you don't you usually fall back down popped up went down and then I got screwed in here by the way so I did a heavy short um and I got I I lost so much cuz it it was right here when we popped above it you know is what it is um but you can see it respects this line quite well same with the q's hit hit hit popped above it use as support twice and we are now approaching it again wow yeah now here's what this gets interesting right it's not just the q's or the Spy we've seen that the q's in partic particularly also the Spy are being held up by like seven stocks right so we're going to take a look at that but let me first move my face so this is the percentage of stocks above the 100 day moving average we're at 17.5% it's not great yeah that's pretty poor Market breath right so that's saying that many of the companies within the overall Market are doing poorly individually now it's kind of hard for the market to do well you know overall if so many of them are are having such a bad Trend exactly same thing but 200 moving average so we're about about 24% one and four okay now here's where this gets very interesting we are all familiar with this top 10 spy Holdings um you can see the top 10 here hold 30.5% of the assets with apple heaviest at seven uh Microsoft 6.5 and it kind of decreases from there right now this is very similar to the use almost the same companies minus the last two but you have a lot more emphasis on Apple almost 11% Microsoft almost 10% this is almost half of the Q Holdings just in this right here that's pretty SC scary yeah well this gets really interesting so we just crossed the 200 on Apple okay I know red um yeah now it's the Blue Line like I said 200 moving average let me I want to make sure you can see my arrow this is not just for ETFs stocks respect this everything respect this is the this is the big deal usually when you pop down on on apple or Microsoft or whatever you usually will have a revisitation of it we are going to see what happens um but there's a chance that the market could be falling out from under us right now well there's a a major news event this week too I believe Apple earning this is like this week as of right now um you look at that you got it yeah I believe it's this week while you're getting that Microsoft which is well above the 200 moving average has been killing it because of chat GPT also reported earnings but let's take a little bit of a closer look here so we zoom in I'm going to move my face so you can see the volume you can see those three big red bars way more volume than usual we had a a big red day a big solid red day and now a red um spinning top heading downwards all right all right did you get the earnings date yeah November 2nd it is indeed this week I just wanted to confirm that I suspected it was um Microsoft obviously that response there at the end was due to their earnings reporting yep um Amazon we were approaching the 200 and then they had earnings did pretty well um we had a big bump up we have no I have no idea what's going to happen this just happened uh Nvidia so this white line is my line okay this is not a this this just a support and resistance for day trading line but you can see we're settling right at that if we break it the next support is 200 moving we are below the 100 on the video Tesla we have went below we have retested which is you want to see a struggle you you do not want to see it Go below this number here about 200 if it does we have a free fall almost to like 155 yeah it's like look up below yeah not great all right that was like 5% of the cues or something meta holding strong but we have finally dipped below the 100 we have not been below the 100 in an incredibly long time they just had earnings yeah and we did not go up above it and Google all right earnings to they dropped significant amount below the 100 and are on the way to the 200 right now so we have multiple stocks that are at slightly below or approaching the 200 the Spy has dipped below the 200 and the cues are right there it is possible I'm not saying I'm not shorting by the way I already lost like 15 grand I ruin my whole Year's gains on this short right I'm I'm going to break even this year which is a bummer is is what it is um I'm just the only reason I'm breaking even is because I shorted nickola like six times by the way that's the only reason I'm breaking even um but there is a possibility that there's a pretty heavy hit to the market coming if apple does not hold up well that's was it November 2nd you're you're muted the November 2nd the thing I do like this time of the market is that I I get my numbers ready so I have buy prices for these companies that are starting to drop so I know when I want to get in and what I'll be willing to pay per share basically for them that's kind of my methodology in these kind of sort of Market environments what's your price for Apple I I I don't have one right now I have I think a more than enough Apple uh so that's not one I've be looking to buy but potentially more meta uh Google or U Microsoft they're all ones I'm definitely interested I own all of them but those are ones that I don't have as much of I'm overly concentrated Apple still what your for Google mine's 110 uh so yeah you're in the ballpark I would say I want aggressively add below 100 if I can um my cost basis on Google I want to say is probably in that that ballpark um but that that's the way I was looking at it before and the market drop was I was scaling into my position think I have 60 shares of Google right now I'd be willing to buy another 20 if we get to 100 and another 20 after that it we got to 80 would be my two levels so because everything is at this level and the Spy has dropped I will not be buying anything if we start dropping heavily because there's it you know it at that point valuation doesn't quite matter it's just human psychology as we saw with meta dropping to like 80 two years ago or whatever it was and now they're 300 so all right guys let us know what you think next yep that's next one
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