저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인은 금과의 상대적 관계에서 디스인플레이션 환경에서 금보다 기술자산·새로운 자산군으로서의 역할에 더 반응하며 금과 격차를 벌릴 것으로 봄. 다음 Big Ideas 보고서에서 비트코인 가격 전망(강세 시나리오 150만 달러)을 제시할 예정이며, 미 행정부의 비트코인 지원으로 재무부 준비자산 편입 가능성을 언급. 금속/금 비율과 금리 간 상관관계를 근거로 금리 하락 가능성을 제시하고, 중국은 부동산 부채로 인한 디플레이션 우려와 10년물 국채금리 급락을 지적. S&P500/금 비율과 S&P500/유가 비율 분석을 통해 인플레이션 공포론에 반대하고 원유 증산 기대를 언급.
다듬은 글
that the gold price is uh unlikely to move out of control in the inflationary environment meaning disinflationary environment that we see uh then Bitcoin will be responding more to its role uh as a a technology and a new asset class than to its role like gold as a store of value and it should continue to pull away from gold in the years ahead in this recent interview on The Ark invest YouTube channel with Kathy Wood we uncover bitcoin's transformative role in the future of Finance Cathy discusses bitcoin's competition with gold its potential inclusion in treasury reserves and its significance as a technology-driven asset class Bitcoin the Bitcoin price relative to Gold the gold price uh you can see it broke out at the end of last year it's testing now uh we have seen the gold price go up recently and the Bitcoin price while it broke through 100 to I think we got to 108,000 it's coming in uh a bit and uh make sense that it'll be testing a breakout uh as you know we believe that the Bitcoin price is has miles to go for all kinds of reasons that we will delineate in our big Ideas uh report Our Big Ideas report report will be out in a few weeks and in that report you'll see uh uh how we get to our Bitcoin uh Price Forecast uh we are in print the bull case being 1.5 million and while we have changed uh the way in which we get there we do believe we're going to get there uh especially uh given this Administration sponsorship of Bitcoin it may even end up um as uh part of treasury's reserves as we just heard Kathy Wood highlight bitcoin's growing importance now let's hear her dive deeper into its role as a financial GameChanger she explains how Bitcoin is evolving from just a digital asset to a technology that could redefine the global monetary system now let's listen to what Kathy Wood has to say and once again featuring Bloomberg the Bloomberg commodity price index we are today where we were in the early 80s and the early 90s uh in the early 2000s so th by this measure inflation has gone nowhere and very recently of course the strong dollar Commodities are priced in dollars um has pushed uh pricing down uh so again the dollar is an anti-inflationary Force this chart usually I I show you uh really uh from 2008 forward where the core correlation between this uh metals to gold ratio which is in the purple um has been very high when you map one against the other on on uh that scale uh that that correlation has been very high until recently we're taking this back um to give you more perspective and to show you rarely has the metals price relative to the gold price been lower than it is now uh this goes back into the 80s and uh this is the period of disinflation um and typically you you see that when the that line is coming down interest rates are coming down as well if you follow this carefully the correlation is pretty good um and and uh that has not happened this time in fact interest rates have gone have moved in the other direction and I think uh there is a lot of fear about inflation although if you look at uh the breakdown of long-term interest rates and you look at the explanation of is it real growth is it inflation is it um just uh the the term structure the longer duration um it's explained mostly by longer duration recently um but if this uh gauge of economic health metals to gold does not improve uh then interest rates We Believe will come down now uh this brings us to the shocking chart from China this chart uh really started in the early days when it first entered the World Trade Organization so it is the relevant period of time and look at what is happening to the 10-year government bond yield it is collapsing uh and we know that PPI inflation well is in is negative so there's deflation from the PPI point of view uh Consumer Price inflation is pretty non-existent what this tells us is uh that the the government probably doesn't mind that its currency is depreciating it's depreciating right now um and it's hitting the lows in terms of depreciation uh that that we've seen the you know the the lowest points uh relative to the dollar so um uh you know this this suggests to us that they're trying to reflate their economy but they can't do it if they can't get property going that is such a big part of the economy and it's 75% of consumer savings uh so they are speaking a little more vifer now about fiscal stimulus and modest monetary easing uh but I think they're probably pretty shocked uh by what's going on here uh uh this is the the lowest in the uh government bond yield um since uh China entered the World Trade Organization and it basically says uh not all is well there now what are they doing in response uh besides some of these easing measure measures from a policy point of view they're really pivoting to Innovation and as we've mentioned many many times Innovation is inherently deflationary if it's Tech techologically enabled uh and there are some some surprises coming out of China deep seek uh their large language model is um surprisingly performant uh on on chips that are not the most advanced out there so uh China is innovating around some of the restrictions uh that have been po imposed on it by um the US government's National Security uh concerns uh so partly that could be a reason this is going down but I do think that there is much more of a a true deflationary bust caused by overwhelming debt caused in turn by the property sector in China which will take years years years years to work out of uh so um it is pretty shocking to see the the you know the the Swift decline in recent months something there has changed so here we'll go back to the controversies out there those who believe that we are going to have you know a problem with inflation and interest rates believe that this metric the S&P 500 divided by gold is going is peing out now now and is going to roll over much like it did during the 70s uh we disagree with that um as I think I've made clear uh and you can see the market is trying to figure this out it's in in a holding pattern here uh so uh we're watching this very carefully um and here is the S&P relative to uh oil prices uh you can see on this score the the S&P is winning um you know historically uh boosts and and soaring uh crude oil prices have led to recessions they are not soaring now and in fact with um what's going on in the Middle East uh it could be um with with Iran not sounding as um inflammatory perhaps uh that there will be a different attitude as this Administration um uh takes office once again uh and uh we would submit that oil production in the us if we do get that extra 3 million barrels is going to weigh on the oil price going forward uh and be good for the S&P 500 to watch the full interview check out the link in the description we would love to hear your thoughts on some questions do you see Bitcoin becoming the global standard of value and how do you think it will compare to gold in the future thank you for tuning 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