저자: Paul · 외국인
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결론: 조엘 그린블라트의 매직포뮬러(저PER+고ROA 조합) 투자는 장기간 시장을 이길 수 있는 규칙 기반 방식이며, 단기 성과로 판단하면 안 된다는 주장. [매직포뮬러 개요] 출연자는 조엘 그린블라트의 'The Little Book That Beats the Market' 방식을 소개. 시총 상위 3,500개 기업을 PER 낮은 순, ROA 높은 순으로 각각 순위를 매겨 합산하고 합계가 낮은 종목을 매수하는 방식. 공식 사이트에서 무료로 종목 리스트 확인 가능. [2020~2021 성과 발표] 2020년 7월 1일 15만 달러를 30개 종목에 투자, 2021년 7월까지 약 70% 수익이라고 주장. 다만 같은 기간 시장 전체도 급등했다는 반론을 인정. [최근 6개월 부진] 2021년 7월 투자분은 약 6개월 후 약 3.6% 손실(배당 제외, 약 2~2.5% 손실 추정)로 S&P500 총수익률(약 10~11% 상승)에 크게 못 미침. 출연자는 1년 단위 평가는 부적절하며 30년 단위 관점이 맞다고 강조. [방법론 옹호] 백테스트로 25년 이상 가치 지표 전략이 시장을 크게 앞섰다고 주장하며, 데이터 조작 의혹에 대해 상관관계 예시(결혼 지속성, 과속과 사고)로 반박. [리스크·조건] 단기 하락과 시장 대비 부진을 견디지 못하면 규칙을 유지하기 어렵다는 점을 강조. 하이프 종목 쏠림 시기에는 가치 전략이 장기간 부진할 수 있음을 인정. [출연자 전망·홍보] 향후 1년 뒤 재평가를 예고. 자체 유료 커뮤니티·소프트웨어 홍보(월 약 1달러/일, 가입 시점에 따라 가격 고정 주장)를 병행. 자체 방법론이 더 있으나 비공개라고 언급. [시장 전망] 현재 과열 장세 인식 및 S&P500 숏 포지션 보유를 언급, 나스닥100 숏 추가 고려. 급격한 하락장이 아직 경험되지 않았다는 점을 본인도 인정.
다듬은 글
hey guys welcome back to everythingmoney this uh episode is very near and dear to my heart a couple years ago paul turned me on to the little book that beats the market an investing handbook by the billionaire hedge fund manager joel greenblatt i was drawn to this i read the book my child my 11 year old has read this book paul you're a big fan of this book and you you send a lot of people to this paul wouldn't you say that investing in little book stocks is uh is sort of like one-upping a general etf you're sort of creating your own etf um so why were you so drawn to joel greenblatt's book and why did you point me toward it paul well over the years i've studied a lot about value investing and i've studied all about investing in general and i've found that when people get when people can get their own emotions involved they tend to do worse i just found that people did very very well they could beat the market by just picking a basket of stocks that have certain attributes that are value based and joel greenblatt are two attributes one is a low pe and two is a higher return on assets what he does is he ranks he takes the 3500 companies the top 3 500 companies by size he ranks them one to 3 500 by pe and one to 3 500 by return on assets he adds the rankings together and then he buys the lowest numbered added together for each one and you can go to their website magicformulainvesting.com and you can you can get the list based on whatever market cap he does it for free as long as you sign up i just believe that you can beat the mark be in the market is simple but not easy and the hard part about it is emotionally because this method will not work over three or four five year periods of time when the hype trains on which we're in right now so if you're for somebody who follows a hype train you see your neighbor making 30 a year and you're making 14 15.
even though it's still 14 or 15 you'll be like but why is that person making 30 i need to go do that so they start avoiding this this process but by the time you get back into the process the hype trains ended you you haven't been the first one to leave the room the musical chair has ended but you're left without a chair you've lost a lot of money then you get back on the hype train at the wrong time so i'm just a big believer in picking a process sticking to it no matter what happens and going with it and this is the way it works with joel greenback mo and i have our own methods that we use the same way but we just don't disclose them because we want to teach a process that's actually with a thought process that gets you thinking to where you're going to follow the little book that beats the market no matter what happens yeah i tell new investors you know as we said almost on every video paul you know we want you out there as a new investor you probably want to put 80 90 of your your uh your long-term investments into an etf you know sby vo if you want to one-up that read the little book that beats the market and follow the magic formula which i did so on july 1st of 2020 i invested 150 000 into these 30 companies and through july of this past year 2021 paul i had almost a 70 percent return and i have seen people argue well the whole market was crazy but it did beat the market last year this year's uh so i rebound go ahead it's very interesting to me they'll say yeah but the market was crazy that's the same reason why your hype stocks did well so the entire market was crazy that's the funny part the same argument i used as to why hype stocks suck is the same argument you're using for a fundamental value you're right the whole market was crazy now what i will sit there and say is if you're bragging that you're up 70 and that's the reason why you should do something in a one year period that's a terrible argument but that's why i look at it going over a long period now how has it gone in the last six months it hasn't gone very well has it no no no it has not so here is the new list of here's my new list of stocks that i bought on july the first of this year so you basically wait a year and you buy your new stock so paul we've talked a lot about these and we love some of these you know we've talked about hibbit tupperware madison square garden i think this was on the list last year um h r block do you still hold h r block paul i do and hpq and viacom and dix i mean these are all companies that we like and what are you overall up or down this um this in the last six months yeah so again i invested around 250 000 and i'm down i don't know so let's see that's 244 so yeah there you go so i'm down eight thousand i'm down three uh three point two uh three point six percent for since the investment in july first the last six months i'm in sigma uh i'm in uh sage oh look at this all three guys does that include that does not include dividends though i don't think so this is just general yeah you're right this is just general up and down so in dividends you've probably gotten another one so you're probably still down two percent or two and a half percent on this company on this i'm on this trade so far so and how does that compare to s p 500 total return let me look at this so i'm going to pull up the s p 500 total return and the s p 500 total return is up about 10 or 11 percent in that time period so you're down quite a bit versus the s p but see that's the idea though the idea is you had 70 last year this year you're gonna lose and over 30 years you will be winning that's the goal so you're doing it the right way not looking at it on a year-to-year basis because that's not what this is about yeah this was a surprise to me mo i hadn't looked in a while and paul i tell you what um i love that you haven't looked by the way seth because i was just gonna say it's it's taken a long time yes yes it's taken a long time to get to this i guess paul like literally sitting in a room with you making this show for three years it's now to the point where yeah you always say this i don't actually care because i've gone into a trusted system by a guy who's and paul i think would you agree that um just in the past six months by interviewing the people like william green and monish pabrai uh i i believe in joel greenblatt and the system even more i mean i don't even think you and i even knew to the depths of what this guy really went into to make this system investing over 30 million dollars in back testing uh yeah i just i believe in it more what do you think paul i always believed in it it just made sense like if you ever if you ever try to back test any sort of system that involves good fundamentals value fundamentals we would be like moe and i have done this going back 24 25 years yeah how many how many do you think we've done how many different metrics guys we literally spent like three months trying this trying to find a back test that didn't work using value parameters funny we would throw them out they would we would throw them out when they only beat the market by like two or three percent a year we're like ah useless i ah useless i mean it was just unbelievable how much they beat over 25-year periods of time and you know it's funny because we have people who say to us like oh back testing that sure back testing can be bad if you're looking for we're not going in the past and saying okay what worked we're sitting there saying okay what should work over a long period of time well paying a low multiple of earnings paying a low multiple of cash flow and then others at your attributes that also matter but we pick three or four or five attributes and that's it and guess what it works sorry if you want to argue with me all day long about how that's you know i'm fixing the data great you're stupid i'm not fixing it it's like sitting there saying um it just we back tested and guys who don't cheat on their wives tend to stay married longer than guys who do oh you're just trying to no it just makes sense people who don't cheat on their spouses tend to stay married longer than people who do cheat on their spouses um people who walk around with um oh no look at it recently if you didn't wear a mask are you more likely okay maybe that's a bad one mm-hmm not enough dad how about this if you are if you are somebody who works who drives 100 miles per hour versus some of you guys drive 65 if you pick up 10 000 people who drive 100 miles per hour everywhere people 10 000 people would drive the speed limit which ones are more likely to die in a car crash yeah does that mean all of them are going to die in a car crash no does that mean none of the people just people no but it means overall you're more likely to die and it's like no different no different here it's not it's not sitting there saying unfortunate data it's just there are certain logical things we have to sit there and assume that we if there's certain logical things that make sense and that's why and for us we look this way and we go back 25 years especially 25 years during some very major major hype times and it's still beat i'm very confident this and if you don't believe in it wonderful it just makes me more money so paul i had some folks in our community join me in this journey of investing in little book stocks and i think as a new investor they're a little sad they they're dealing with what i used to deal with is like the sadness that wait a minute i invested in this i'm supposed to make money i'm currently not what's the thought process i mean just remind us again about the discipline thought process you have to have as a value i was in bed last night thinking about investing and i was like and i started to get frustrated stuff go on say i'm so sick of everybody nowadays saying they can handle down markets they can handle not they can handle not being the market over short periods of time this is six months and they're already frustrated it just goes to show that investing is about really being disciplined long term like the idea of six months being down on the sl or not being the market i was like wow that's it doesn't even phase me doesn't even phase me because i buy into the process so much that i'm okay matching the market because i do i think these stocks are less risky than other stocks i don't know it's just guys this is why we this channel is about a mindset we're trying to repeat a mindset over and over and you stick with it over and over it takes years it took me years to finally buy into it but now i'm so programmed that when i hear somebody does very well very quickly i go oh yeah it's probably something hype related that's just it for me i don't even think about it it's just like so obvious to me now that the joke i have is if everybody in the world says the sky is blue which they do i immediately doubt the sky is actually blue i go man probably not really blue you know it's taken me many years if you're out there and wondering how do you get to this state it's taken me many years of of listening to paul on a daily basis so in essence paul i think reading and you're not there yet you need something you still haven't seen you still haven't seen a major bear market yes you saw kovid when i say a major bear market i mean one in which it goes down and stays down and keeps going down month after month year to year where you're like what the hell because guess what that's what moe and i do now mo and i are now like oh my god what the hell it's up again how yeah so this is the way it did like my s p 500 short position it doesn't bother me father's my brother but it doesn't bother me in fact i want to short more but i've agreed not to i'm gonna short the nasdaq 100 but to me shorting when markets are up irrationally is no different than buying when markets are down irrationally it's no different we will keep you updated on the little book stocks my journey and if you're following along in the community it's a very much mentality of let's stay calm let's eight pillar on use the process that we're learning because in essence paul a lot of our people who are watching these videos they don't have a process at all following any pillar then moving into due diligence uh i i wasn't either so i'm i'm still embracing our process we hope you are too if this resonates with you you can join our community and paul will tell you how you can get the software right now tell them paul we created all the software because our users want to be able to analyze this software allows them to do that the things you get e eight pillar all these tools right here plus all the stuff coming you get exclusive daily content that's one to three videos a day that made by us just for our users but so our community is over 6 000 people who've already bought this software it's in a very organized chat you can go in there and talk about everything imaginable even crypto even tesla all your value investing ideas even personal lives we have people in there that are friends now it's an incredible community join signing up directly with everythingmoney.com is we are not big enough to charge sales tax yet so you're going to save on that sales tax for a while and the other good news about the software is you set up today every month the price to new subscribers goes up so whenever you like get your price that is your price locked in forever so this month it's one dollar a day next month it's gonna be higher last month it was lower so when you sign up we're p we have people who are paying like 25 cents a day right now because they signed up so early so sign up now one dollar per day less than a cup of coffee gets you access to all this if you can change your returns by one or two percent to the positive or decrease your losses by one or two percent this will yiel one dollar per day sign up now and if you're looking to trade stocks at a quicker pace little book stocks are for long-term investment their money can be made on any stock on these ups and downs you can join mo in the bid nas nation and he will guide you through this process watch any of our videos and you can learn more that is our take on the little book stocks i will update you next july i will keep you updated on a six month period we'll see where we go let's stay calm and eight pillar on thanks for watching
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