저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은·백금이 수개월 횡보 후 하락추세선 돌파로 매수 신호가 나왔다고 주장하며 금 신고점을 예상. 중앙은행 개입과 재정적자로 달러 약세·인플레 지속이 예상되고, 금리는 1981년 이후 하강 사이클이 2020년 8월 저점에서 끝나 20~30년 상승 국면 진입. 밈주식·FANG·반도체·나스닥은 고점 형성 중이며 비트코인·트럼프 관련 코인은 0이 될 것이라고 주장. 실물자산(농지)도 식량 부족 대비 자산으로 제시.
다듬은 글
Gold has entered the buy zone, but there has been no signal to buy yet. Right now, technically, I would say that we have a pretty strong buy signal, and not just for gold, but also for silver and platinum after a period of consolidation of several months . You can see here , at the end of the triangle below, a sort of base formation period and a breakout to the upside.
Now the question is, will we reach a new high? We don't know this yet, but the trend, the downtrend, has been broken, and the shorts are now closing, or have already closed, or are about to close, and I think this movement could last for some time and possibly create new hype. Global financial markets are undergoing seismic shifts as relentless central bank interventions erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies around the world.
Investors seeking safety are increasingly turning to tangible, hard assets to protect their capital from rising inflationary pressures. Marc Faber, prominent Swiss ". predicts that precious metals have officially broken out of their multi-month base, providing a strong technical signal to buy gold, silver, and platinum.
He predicts that gold will overcome previous resistance levels and set a new all-time high as short sellers close out their positions. Moreover, incompetent monetary policy and excessive public debt will inevitably significantly weaken the US dollar over the coming years. Since central banks cannot tighten policy without risking systemic collapse, inflation will remain high alongside rising interest rates in a multi-decade structural shift that will last 20-30 years.
Real hard assets remain the best shield against continue my opinion, the world or market participants suddenly realized, after all the interventions, after the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates and Bessant's decision to intervene to support the yen. They have lost faith in the US administration's ability and willingness to actually make certain sacrifices.
Do you understand? They seem to have realized that the United States is going to print money on a massive scale and that they are going to manipulate the markets, and then they conclude, " Okay, if they are manipulating the market, how do I protect my wealth?" So they buy gold, and I think the gold market has given very strong confirmation to the idea that the US administration is completely incompetent in monetary matters.
I have to say that in the short term, precious metals have given a buy signal. Good. But we do n't know how long this signal will last, because the market pattern is not particularly favorable for any asset. In my opinion, the asset inflation we have seen since 1980-81 is coming to an end, one by one.
There was once a book with a funny story about ten people falling down the stairs one after the other. And so asset prices began to fall, starting with commercial real estate. Now we have falling prices for residential real estate and condominiums, as well as all the meme stocks, the peak of which fell in 2021.
Do you understand? The top of a large market is broad and takes time. Not everything peaks on the same day. So, in 2021, we had the peak of meme stocks and SPACs—that was a big thing, and two years earlier—the peak of cannabis stocks. And then, in 2022, early 2022, there was the S&P . And now we have seen several “FANG” stocks, they have already peaked in November 2024.
And now, in 2026, I think semiconductor stocks and the NASDAQ have probably peaked. I was lucky because I recently wrote a newsletter saying that gold had entered a buy zone, but there was no buy signal yet. Now, technically, I would say that we have a pretty strong buy signal right now not only for gold, but also for silver and platinum after a multi-month consolidation period .
You see here, at the end of the triangle below, there is a period of base formation and a breakout to the upside. Now the question is, will we set a new high? We do n't know this yet, but the trend, the downtrend, has been broken. And shorts are now closing positions, either have already closed them or are about to close them.
And I think this movement could last for a while and possibly lead to a new high. If I look at Mr. Trump, his administration and Mr. Worth, I think gold should set a new high. Secular economic trends operate in long-term Kondratieff cycles that dictate interest rates and commodity valuations for decades.
The enormous burden of public debt leaves Western governments with no choice but to constantly print money to prevent economic collapse . This inevitable liquidity creation will significantly undermine the real purchasing power of paper currencies. As major stock sectors and technology indexes continue to consistently reach peaks, precious metals are predicted to outperform them, pushing gold to unprecedented record highs .
Real assets, such as productive farmland, will retain purchasing power during economic shocks, while speculative political cryptocurrency tokens are projected to fall to zero. Now let's get back to the interview. Interest rates move in long-term cycles, just like commodities. We usually call them contra-ETFs.
The counter-ETF cycle lasts 40-60 years, but it has been distorted by money printing. Therefore, the cycle can be longer , or it can be shorter. But overall , if I look at the last 100 years, we had an initial cycle, an upward cycle until 1929. And then interest rates tended to decline and remained low, artificially low, during World War II.
And after the war, they began to gradually grow in the 1950s and 1960s. Then growth accelerated in the late 60s and 70s and peaked in September 1981, when 10-year Treasury bonds were 15.84%. And after that, we had a downward interest rate structure that should have actually bottomed out, I think, in the early 2000s.
But thanks to the manipulations of Mr. Bernanke at America's central bank, they kept interest rates artificially low, and in fact they bottomed out in August 2020, when 10-year bonds were at around 0.5%. And after August 2020, we are seeing an increase in interest rates and inflation. And in my opinion, it will last at least 20 or 30 years.
And, in my opinion, this will lead to inflationary pressures and interest rates that will be higher than in 1980-81. Almost certainly. Nothing is certain, but it is almost certain because in economics people think that when interest rates are high, money is scarce. This is nonsense. You can have easy money at 100% interest rates.
If the cost of living growth rate is, say, 120% and your interest rates are 100 %, then it is still an inflationary monetary policy because interest rates are significantly lower than the cost of living growth, lower than the inflation rate. So , the absolute level of interest rates does not indicate whether money is scarce or available.
You have to look at a lot of different factors. Real rate. Yes. And in my opinion, they can no longer have a deficit of money in the US, I mean the Western democracies, because the national debt is too high. They have to print money, otherwise the system will collapse. I am convinced that in fact, as interest rates have been rising since 2020, let's say, my liquidity position has improved.
In 2020, if I had a million, I would get $5,000 in interest because rates were at 0.5%, or in some countries they were negative, and in some they were zero. But now I get my million, let's say 4 and a half percent, that's $45,000, and that, as you say, is to some extent an inflationary factor . I am more liquid now than ever before.
If you print money, it's likely that things could stay the same or increase. But some things grow more than others. Like during hyperinflation in Germany: stocks rose, but the inflation rate was higher than the rise in stock prices, and the depreciation of the currency was much greater than the rise in stocks.
So, in real terms, the shares lost value, but at some point they became very cheap. But in the US, in my opinion, this is what will happen: the dollar will weaken significantly. But that hasn't happened yet. However, in my opinion, this could happen in the future, and in such a scenario, gold and silver would obviously be profitable assets that would be positively affected by this .
I understand. If you print money and others don't, your currency will inevitably weaken. There is no doubt about it. The question is , can others also start printing money, as we have already seen the interventions of Bessent and others. And if everyone starts to intervene and print money, all currencies will lose their purchasing power.
And in this situation, in my opinion, although others believe that Bitcoin and crypto assets will grow, I don't think so. Certainly not those related to the Trump family; they will all turn into zero, into complete zero. But others may have some value. However, precious metals will retain their value: gold, silver, and platinum.
I understand. Of course, agricultural land will also retain its value, because under the conditions I describe, we may face a food shortage. Understanding the dynamics of asset inflation shows that large market peaks form over a long period of time, rather than collapsing in a single day. Speculative assets peak sequentially: first meme stocks in 2021, followed by broad market indices.
Many market participants mistakenly assume that high nominal interest rates mean tight monetary policy. However, when the cost of living rises faster than nominal rates, monetary policy remains expansionary, accelerating inflationary pressures. When the world's central banks intervene simultaneously by expanding the money supply, all fiat currencies lose purchasing power.
Under these conditions, a significant weakening of the US dollar is expected, which will create a tailwind for precious metals . Gold, silver, and platinum are forecast to have sustained upward momentum, pushing gold to new all-time highs. Furthermore , prolonged monetary distortions are expected to trigger food shortages, making agricultural land an important physical asset for preserving capital in the long term. .
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