Ray Dalio: Investing Principles You Need To Get Rich

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결론: 성공 투자의 핵심은 개별 전술적 베팅보다 자산배분 구조와 감정 통제, 그리고 과정에 대한 장기적 원칙 수립이다. [창업 경험과 원칙] 12세 때 주식에 투자해 시장의 중요성을 처음 알았고, 실수에서 배운 교훈을 원칙으로 정리하는 방식을 강조했다. [시장 경쟁과 2008년 성과] 현재 시장도 과거와 비교해 경쟁이 어렵지 않다고 보며, 2008년에는 약 10% 수익을 냈다고 언급했다. 구조적 편향(항상 롱 포지션)을 피하는 것이 중요하다고 주장했다. [일반 투자자에 대한 조언] 전술적 자산배분 베팅은 대부분 손실로 이어지므로 일반 투자자에게 권하지 않는다. 대신 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 구성하고, 자산군 전체가 장기적으로 현금을 웃돈다는 점을 기반으로 삼으라고 했다. 금을 포트폴리오의 5~10% 정도 보유하는 것도 신중한 선택으로 언급했다. [올웨더 전략] 주식 30%, 장기국채 40%, 중기채 15%, 금 7.5%, 원자재 7.5%로 구성하는 리스크 패리티 기반 배분을 소개했다. 주식은 채권보다 변동성이 크므로 단순 50:50 배분은 실제 위험이 균형적이지 않다고 지적했다. 75년 백테스트에서 연간 손실이 크지 않았고, 최대 낙폭은 2008년 약 -3.95%였다고 설명했다. [투자자 행동과 수익률 격차] Dalbar 연구(1993~2013)를 인용해 S&P500 연평균 9.2% 대비 평균 투자자 수익은 약 2.5%(세전)였다고 밝혔다. 원인은 매도·매수 타이밍의 감정적 오류라고 설명했다. [의사결정과 명상] 신뢰도 가중 의사결정(believability-weighted decision making)과 독립적 사고의 중요성을 강조했다. 명상이 스트레스와 감정 개입을 줄이고 창의성을 높여 투자 성과에 가장 큰 영향을 주었다고 말했다. [리스크 및 조건] 전술적 베팅은 제로섬 게임이며, 장기 자산배분 원칙을 지키는 것이 전제다. 특정 가격 방향에 대한 단기 예측은 제시하지 않았다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. when i was 12 i hated school but i fell in love with trading the markets i caddied at the time earned about five dollars a bag and i took my counting money and i put it in the stock market and that was just because the stock market was hot at the time and the first company i bought was a company by the name of northeast airlines northeast airlines was the only company i heard of that was selling for less than five dollars a share and i figured i could buy more shares and if went up i'd make more money so that was a dumb strategy right but i tripled my money i tripled my money because i got lucky the company was about to go bankrupt but some other company acquired it and i tripled my money and i was hooked and i thought this game is easy with time i learned this game is anything but easy in order to be an effective investor one has to bet against the consensus and be right and it's not easy to bet against the consensus and be right one has to bet against the consensus and be right because the consensus is built into the price and in order to be an entrepreneur a successful entrepreneur one has to bet against the consensus and be right i had to be an entrepreneur and an investor and what goes along with that is making a lot of painful mistakes so i made a lot of painful mistakes and with time my attitude about those mistakes began to change i began to think of them as puzzles that if i could solve the puzzles they would give me gems and the puzzles were what would i do differently in the future so i wouldn't make that painful mistake and the gems were principles that i would then write down so i would remember them that would help me in the future you know from a very early age the whole idea of being right is so rewarded whereas learning from mistakes doesn't have its place right you so a kid studies there oh you're smart smart smart you take the examination and okay you do badly and but life's not like that life is mostly a matter of making your mistakes and knowing how to evolve past those mistakes and learn you guys have an extraordinary track record of winning yeah is it harder to compete in the markets today than it has been since you founded bridgewater no i don't think so really not the way we do it and the reason i'm saying not the way we do it is we don't take systematic biases i think for a lot of people they're systematically long everything you know and so we have a world in which there when the world gets bad it's bad for them in 2008 it was great for us i don't know we had nearly 10 return in 2008.

02. so we have the opportunity to go either way we just may be wrong if we're wrong so so i'm so scared about being wrong that it has helped reduce my chances of being wrong because i'm so scared i won't take bets that i'm you know that i don't feel good about and we diversify our portfolio and that's how we we we got the track record i was just commenting in terms of i see um let's say so um you asked me about investors so i'm trying to go back what investors should do well and what you think is appropriate yeah so here's what i'm driving you guys are doing well i want to just convey investors i think in the average investor most everybody don't compete against uh pros like ourselves or other people don't making tactical asset allocation bets or moving around in the markets because you're probably going to lose it's difficult for us we put hundreds of data for free no you have to have a develop a balanced portfolio in other words think about how you how you're going to have a balanced portfolio what you know is that asset classes as a whole over a period of time are going to outperform cash okay that's the most thing that you could be most comfortable with if they don't you have a depression the only times that hasn't happened but to to know how to achieve a balanced portfolio and that's a whole other subject i don't know that you want to go through if you're talking about tactical bets in other words i can come on the show and i can say i think this is good but then what happens is if i come a month later and i then change my mind because something has happened then i'm gonna leave some i'm gonna mislead people so the the tactical bets i don't think are gonna be helpful i would say um that we're in an environment in which it's very important to have a well-diversified and that'll include assets like to some extent maybe a little bit of gold in your portfolio in other words what could i tell investors try to achieve balance in various ways that's a whole subject about how to do it and also um i i think that you know gold you know at five percent of your portfolio five or ten percent of your portfolio under the circumstances would be also a prudent thing to do prudence is the important thing to do the reason i'm also referring to that is we have a situation where a debt is money in other words we have a fiat monetary system too and so we're having problems as these central banks operate and so that it's think of it as another form of cash and when cash now has zero or um zero percent interest rates or less think of it as one of those possibilities in terms of how do you how do you create diversification well we we break it into two parts we have two basic portfolios there is the strategic asset allocation mix which we call all weather and that just has nothing to do with bets it has to do with how to make all the assets the same risk parity i would call risk parity the problem is when people try to diversify and they own some equities and equities has a volatility right that's large or they own assets that do well when the economy does well and do badly when the economy does badly they have a concentration of their risk in in some assets right they need to have they need to change the portfolio they need to buy longer duration bonds or leverage the bonds or bring up so that bonds and commodities and pieces have comparable impacts so that whatever happens in the economy will then um have a balancing effect because the one thing you could be most confident is that asset classes on average will outperform cash okay so if you have that's a strategic asset allocation that's what the all-weather piece is then there's the bets the bets are zero-sum right in order for you to beat me in the game you're going to ha it's like poker it's a zero-sum game i have we have 1500 people who work at bridgewater we spend hundreds of millions of dollars on research and so on we've been doing this for 37 years and we don't know that we're going to win in other words we work that we have to have diversified bets we have a lot of diversified bets and so on so it's very important for most people to know when not to make a bet because if you're going to come to the poker table you're going to have to beat me and you're going to have to beat those who take money so the nature of investing is that a very small percentage of the people take money essentially in that poker game away from other people who who don't know when prices go up whether that means it's a good investment or if it's a more expensive investment well i sat down with the famous ray dalio right right and i i prepared for 18 hours for that interview because he's a genius and there's not that much on him and i wanted to absorb it all so i got every little bit of it sat down with him it turned out ray was a fan of my work which i was touched by 20 years ago i guess he listened my program so he was very generous with his time and we spent these three hours and in three hours when i got to the end i said to ray i said listen i really want to help the average person so i got a question for you i did this with everyone i said if you couldn't give your money to your children any of it and all you could do would be give them a portfolio or a set of investment strategies or instructions and they were going to start over and build it what would it be and he said tony i spent a decade figuring that out all my money's already there my kids money is there my money from philanthropy when i'm gone is there because i'm not going to be here and i want something that will do well in the future and i don't know what the future is going to be markets are going to always change i need something that could work in any market i call it my all-weather fund most of us in the business are familiar with it a little bit and so he explained it to me and i had a good understanding and i said i get it so what you're saying is the reason why this was an obsessed him why is it if i have a balanced portfolio in 2008 i got nailed on both sides exactly why did that happen in 2000 everybody says portfolio theory this is supposed to protect me and it didn't work but he said as soon as things get better no one talks about it we just forget about it happens again happened in 2000 happened in 2008.

03. he said i figured it out when you have a 50 50 portfolio right that's 50 50 of where you put your money in assets 60 40 50 50 however you look at balanced portfolio right but he said the problem is that's not balanced risk this is where people are crazy i've seen people write things up they see us in the book and say tony robbins is promoting first of all i'm not promoting anything every word in this book is from the best investors on earth anything that's from me is about the emotions that i know for 36 years that's been my expertise these are their views but i'll tell you what's amazing he said tony when you have stocks and bonds half and half you're not equal because equities are three times more volatile so your risk is 95 five he said so that's why people get killed in 2008 he said i try to get this through to people he said but all of our people handle it you know you manage money for countries the largest you know pension funds on earth he said but people don't listen they look at it and go oh this is bond heavy the bond days are over because inflation's going forward he said it's not true tony this fund in the 1970s it was the worst time for bonds and there's an extraordinary time for all weather because it isn't it looks over balanced because in order to get the same level of risk you have to go for more long-term bonds or you have to use more leverage on the bond side and so when he was all done it was you know for the average person complex i'm seeing financial people look at this and write things up that are just silly saying you know this is this is never going to work because we're in the you know interest rates going the only place to go if the treats go up it's a balanced fun the other areas kick in but here's what's interesting after you told the whole thing to me i said to him i said look i said this is wonderful you give me something that very few people understand on the planet i think i really got it and i played it back to him he said you got it i said here's the problem the average person is never going to know what to do with this and i said i'm trying to help somebody that needs to know what to do i said tell me you're telling me to make this beautiful chocolate cake and you're saying tony here's how to do it use some sugar right use some chocolate use some dairy products i need to know the amounts you know give me the amounts he goes tony that's my secret sauce and that's when he told me he said look 10 years ago for you to even get in to talk to me it was 5 billion net worth 100 million dollars to get in michael and he said and now for 10 years i haven't taken anybody's money she answered your own question i said you're not taking money anyway it's not going to compete with you the average guy he says never going to make it talking to a wealth manager tell me what to do and he's so generous you know he's giving up half his net worth like many other people and and in the end he said okay he said but it'll be complex i said i can make it simple he said well i don't want leverage and i said design one without leverage because it won't be perfect i said i don't care if it's not perfect your idea of unperfect will be somebody else's idea is the best thing they could do and they laid out the numbers we ran the numbers and used the same back testing so you saw year by year how it really did over the last 75 years of modern investing and here's what's amazing like all weather similar in 75 years it's been right 85 percent of the time what's even more extraordinary is the 15 what it wasn't doing well what did it do well its average loss was 1.6 not 50 40 30 20.

04. i think the last 10 years of 250 hits his biggest loss in 75 years was less than four percent minus 3.95 and that was 2008 when the market exploded you know down to 51 percent here are the allocations in the book which would make a normal person gag at least initially stocks only 30 percent even though it's their stocks on average are supposed to gain what nine percent a year yes 9.2 long-term treasuries 40 percent yeah intermediates 15.

05. i know gold seven and a half commodities seven and a half yeah absolute counter wisdom i know it's amazing you know when i read uh interviewed david swenson he said he wrote a book and then when he said the whole secret to success is to be contrary to what else believes but the math on this is what works here's what's interesting that looks like your heavy bonds 40 and 15 55 bonds and it looks that way visually in terms of volume you are but in terms of risk you're not you're still you're making us here equally weighted think of it this way what triggers things to grow is inflation or deflation in terms of price certain things do really well in inflation certain deflation growing economy shrinking economy and he's figured out which quadrant you need to put each to actually have equal risk and that's why it's not well this year this formula is done it's one percent better than the market it's in 13 and the third right now uh and but more importantly three weeks ago when the market dropped and gave up all of its entire benefits for the entire year and everybody's guts were checking there was no gut check because they went up a quarter of a point so the the beauty of this is i'm sure you know um there was a study done the last 20 years and studies from 1993 to 2013 and it's by dalbar and they found that the market s p 500 during that time did 9.2 percent on average just as you said but do you know what the average mutual fund man owner got investor 2.5 that's before tax why because we as investors always do the wrong thing emotionally that's right we sell we should hang on we buy when we shouldn't so the greatest thing that i think that ray offers somebody the opportunity to do is actually stay in the market because if you yeah if you got 1.6 as your big hit if four percent was the biggest hit you've ever seen in 75 years i think you could stay in and you can do what jack talks about which is stay in that market through time this means resetting each year it's a reset once a year that's the one recalibration so 15 minutes a year and you're in the game ordinarily you're there with two ways of making decisions pretty much uh there's the boss has control and some autocratic autocratic i'll call that autocratic takes in everything and then he makes a decision or there's democratic pretty much one man one vote but really the best decision making is believability weighted decision making and if you think about it first conceptually you would say um if you're going to make a decision of what you have medical condition and you're going to how are you going to get that you're going to think who are the best doctors consult the experts right consult the experts but this one knows more and that one knows more less and how do you do it and then you have this triangulation and then you make that that's kind of the idea of believability decision making we have ways of signing believability that we all agree are fair that we each assess each other and we get certain amount of believability points so now imagine that you had believability your believability on a subject matter maybe it's investing maybe it's accounting whatever the subject is that you have a certain amount of believability weighted points and you're together well those believability weighted points uh when you say okay what should i make as a decision now i'm responsible for something but i ask everybody else i and i take a believability weighted vote i can have a believability weighted vote when i have that believability way to vote vote i really do believe that it's going to be a better decision than i would individually make that's believability weighted decision making and it's fantastic um when you have independent thinkers in in order to be successful in the markets or as an entrepreneur one has to be an independent thinker that makes decisions better than the consensus decisions that's fair in the markets the consensus is built into the price it's beta yeah so now um you have to bet against the consensus to make money therefore you have to be an independent thinker the best dynamic is to have a bunch of independent thinkers now you've got a bunch of independent thinkers how are they going to have thoughtful disagreement and get past those disagreements how we have done that is the key to our success and it's outlined in the book so what happens what happens with meditation as you know um is it's just a simple exercise that allows you first to uh clear your head and then brings um an equanimity to everything everything it eliminates the stress it eliminates the emotion do it how um you're a busy guy yeah i i i've been doing it for uh 44 years but i do it you know twice a day probably a third of the time once a day probably a third of the time and not at all 20 minutes twice a day yes you spent today as part of your oh it's such a great investment i would say that more than any other factor having any effect on my success it's been meditation because the equanimity uh and also the creativity because it opens uh between the literally the prefrontal cortex and the amygdala it opens the two sides of the brains and allows a spontaneity a creativity and open-mindedness and and so it's good for the not only the health because because it you get with stress is a terrible thing but it also is very good in terms of the clarity and you don't get the emotional hijacking and it's great for creativity so it's helped me a lot it's the biggest gift i can give anyone okay so if you didn't understand the economic stuff meditate you