Bill Ackman: How To Be a Great Investor [Strategy]

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첫 줄 결론: Ackman은 자신의 투자 성공 원칙(단순·예측가능한 잉여현금흐름, 높은 진입장벽, 높은 자본수익률, 외부 위험 노출 제한, 강한 재무구조·경영진·지배구조)을 고수하며, 이를 벗어났을 때 손실이 났다고 설명한다. 투자 스타일: 그는 매크로 투자자가 아닌 행동주의(activist) 투자자이며, 특정 기업에 대한 베팅을 한다. 개인 성향에서 비롯됐고 26세에 첫 펀드를 조성했다. 사례 - 록펠러센터 프로퍼티스: 경영진의 결정이 가치 창출 측면에서 명백히 잘못됐다고 보고 투자했고, 이후 고수익·고관심 투자로 이어졌다. 사례 - 치폴레: 주가가 부진하던 시기에 지분을 매수하고 이사를 파견했으며, 새 CEO(Brian Niccol)를 영입해 회사가 턴어라운드했고 주가는 거의 3배가 됐다고 설명했다. 실패 사례: 2015~2016년 헤르벌라이프와 밸리언트(Valeant) 투자가 큰 손실 요인이었다. 교훈: 손실 이후 회사 내 '석판'에 8개 원칙을 새겨 책상에 두었으며, 그 원칙을 지키면서 이후 성과를 회복했다고 말한다. 원칙 이탈 패턴: 자주 이탈할 때마다 사업 품질이나 복잡성에서 타협했고, 그때 손해를 봤다. 대상 자산 관련 직접 가격 예측 발언은 없음(장기 원칙 및 과거 사례 설명 위주).

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. the success we had for the first dozen years so i think it's about keeping to our principles are basically one invest in simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that are in high returns on capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management good governance sounds logical so you are what's called an activist investor not a macro investor an activist investor typically invests in companies or makes specific bets on companies the direction up or down and so forth how did you get into being an activist investor as opposed to let's say a value investor a macro investor was it something you decided to do while you were in college or early in your professional career what led you into that route i think it's part of my personality you know i started as an investor i raised the first pool of capital when i was 26 and i made an early investment in a company called rockefeller center properties and i saw management making a series of decisions that made no sense to me it was just so obvious the right thing to do as to how to create value and it was being a frustrated pastor investor that made me into an active investor and you know that investment turned into a very profitable and very high profile investment and with success uh you know one is motivated to try it again and uh it's been helpful to the strategy over a very long period of time and it's fun and uh if you're passive you can feel like the market's patsy and if you're active you can actually create some value and i think it's a lot more interesting than just picking securities you know we bought a stake in chipotle at a time where the company was struggling a few years ago we put a few directors on the board we recruited a new ceo named brian nickel it's completely turned around the company the stock is you know almost tripled in in the midst of a crisis uh and it just tells you that you know that's a lot more fun and it's a lot more profitable and i would say bet good for a lot more good for america than just simply being a passive stock picker so let's talk about for a moment um some of the campaigns you've done as activists some of them have worked out some have not uh chipotle has seemed to have worked out but you did a couple that were difficult ones or herbalife or valiant uh they didn't work out what would you say is the mistake you made in hindsight and that you would try to avoid in the future sure so there's sort of eight principles that have driven our investment success and when we have veered from those eight principles uh we've lost money and uh after the uh two thousand we went through a very difficult period circa 2015 2016 the two investments you mentioned were big drivers of that it was uh you know if you will experiences making mistakes and learning from them and it was a moment of reflection for the firm and i went back to the core principles that have driven our success for the first 12 years and i had a member of the investment team literally engraved them in a stone tablet not dissimilar from moses's ten commandments and i had that stone tablet put in what you might call a deal toy sits on everyone's desk in the office and uh we've adhered to those principles you know ever since and you know we've been fortunate uh to return to the success we had for the first dozen years so i think it's about keeping to our our principles are basically one investment simple predictable free cash regenerative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that earn high returns on capital they have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management good governance sounds logical um but you know occasionally we've diverged and there's uh those times you know there's a certain discipline that comes with investments and there always seems to be a countervailing quality that caused us to diverge but in really each case we've compromised on business quality or complexity we've been harmed you