How Warren Buffett Outperform the Market [Charlie Munger]

요약 보기

결론: 버크셔 해서웨이와 데일리 저널이 평균보다 나은 성과를 낸 이유는 많은 분야를 다 알려 하지 않고 소수의 확실한 기회에 집중했기 때문이다. 핵심 주장: 어떤 산업이든 모든 분야를 두루 아는 똑똑한 인재를 고용해 정보 우위를 얻을 수 있다는 환상을 가진 적이 없다고 말한다. 통조림, 항공우주, 유틸리티 등 모든 분야에 대해 유용한 정보를 얻을 수 있다는 생각은 버렸다는 것이다. 접근 방식: 열심히 노력하면 몇 가지 옳은 판단을 내릴 수 있고, 그 몇 가지로 충분하다는 것이 합리적 기대라고 설명한다. 버핏에게 올해 최고의 아이디어를 물으면 한두 종목만 제시하는 것도 같은 맥락이다. 일화: 외할아버지(어머니의 할아버지)는 개척자로 아이오와에 무일푼으로 와서 싼 땅을 사들여 마을에서 가장 부유한 사람이 되었다. 그는 좋은 위치에서 살면 인생에서 몇 번의 기회가 오며, 그 기회가 왔을 때 잡는 것이 핵심이라고 가르쳤다. 화자는 어릴 때부터 중요한 기회는 적다는 사실을 알았고, 그 소수를 잡을 준비를 해 왔다고 말한다. 대비: 대형 투자자문사는 수많은 것을 공부해 많은 것을 알려 하지만, 그 결과 대부분 지수를 이기지 못한다고 비판한다. 성과 및 행동: 화자는 데일리 저널, 버크셔 해서웨이, 리우(Li Lu) 아시아 펀드, 코스트코 주식을 보유하며 지수를 능가해 왔다고 말한다. 거래를 거의 하지 않으며 자신이 옳고 그들이 틀렸다는 입장이다. 결론적 질문: 나처럼 할 것인가, 그들처럼 할 것인가. 대상 자산 예측: 해당 발언 중 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 장기적 투자 철학만 언급됨.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. a place like berkshire hathaway or even the daily journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened why has that happened and the answer is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about canned soup and aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dream we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like jen kramer pretends tends to have and and we always realized that we worked very hard we could find a few things where we were right and the few things were enough and that that was a reasonable expectation that is a very different way to approach the process and if you would ask warren buffett the same thing that this investment counseling did give me your best idea this year and you just followed warren's best idea you would find it worked beautifully but he was trying to know he would give you one or two stocks he had more limited ambitions i had a grandfather he was very useful to me my mother's grandfather he was a pioneer and he came out to iowa with no money but youth and health and took it away from the indians he fought as a black boy he was a captain in blackhawk wars and he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town on the bank and highly regarded a huge family and a very happy life and he had the attitude having come out to iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and having stayed there until that blacktop soil created a modern rich civilization and some of the best land in the world his attitude was that in a favored life like his when you were located in the right place you just got a few opportunities if you live to be above 90.

02. and the trick and coming out well was seizing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren around him all summer and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but i'm not my mother's natural imitator and i knew grandpa was right and so i always knew from the very first i was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have in a big investment counseling thing if they study a million things they can know a million things and that of course the result is almost nobody cannot perform an index whereas i sit here with my daily journal stock my berkshire hathaway stock my holdings of lilu's asian fund my costco stock and of course i'm out performing everybody i'm 95 years old and i frankly never have a transaction and the answer is i'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them you