저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 엔비디아는 여전히 핵심 투자 대상이며, 향후 12~24개월 상승장의 주도 축은 AI 간접수혜 금융주라는 입장. AI 투자 전망: 엔비디아 실적 부진이 있어도 투자 논리는 바뀌지 않으며 AI는 구조적 변화의 중심이라고 주장. 시장이 아직 초기 국면(inning one or two)이라고 봄. AI 버블 우려: 투자 가능한 직접 AI 종목이 적어 자금이 소수에 몰리는 버블성 현상이 나타날 수 있다는 진행자 지적에 대해 리스크는 인정하나, 향후 12개월 내 대형 IPO 등으로 직접 AI 플레이가 늘어나면 여전히 초기 국면이라고 봄. 금융주: 가장 큰 상승 여력이 있는 투자처로 금융주를 제시. AI로부터 2차 수혜를 받고, 블록체인 사업 허용으로 JP모건·골드만삭스의 수익모델과 밸류에이션(멀티플) 확장이 가능하다고 주장. 금융 섹터는 GDP의 절반을 차지하나 지수 비중은 절반에 못 미쳐 재평가(리레이팅) 여지가 크다고 봄. 금리: 금리 인하는 주택·기업대출 유동성을 높이고 스프레드를 낮춰 은행주에 도움이 된다고 봄. 금융주는 실적 성장이 꾸준했음에도 경기순환주처럼 거래되고 있어 기술주 수준의 멀티플을 받을 수 있다고 주장. 시장 주도주: 현 랠리는 산업재·금융·기술 대형주가 주도하는 대형주 랠리이며, 이 흐름이 지속될 것으로 봄. 이번 분기 JP모건·골드만 실적을 긍정적으로 평가. 출연자 전망 정리: AI 강세 유지(장기 구조적 강세), 금융주 단기~중기 상승 여력 큼.
다듬은 글
It takes us to our talk of the tape, the next leg of this record setting rally. It's clear where our headliner stands on that topic. He's bullish as you know he is. Funst strats Tom Lee joins us now post 9. Good to see you. Great to see you Scott. Um so Nvidia looms large. Does that make or break whether your bullishness comes to fruition moving forward?
Um I mean I know investors are really anxious and Nvidia has not performed well the last few times it's reported but the story arc there remains that that is one of the most important companies in the world in the middle of the biggest structural change in the world economy. So I I think Nvidia still is a great story.
It really wouldn't change our thesis if the stock reacted poorly. you feel like there's become a little more AI anxiety as we wrote at the top you you know from Sam Alman at OpenAI saying that you know investors are a little overeager about AI you know meta's reorganized again they've stopped their hiring there was another report today that suggested some of these um genia models uh gen uh AI models are are failing you think there's anxiety in this market about this trade.
Well, I think everyone's trying to get situational awareness like is this inning one or two or late innings because we know there's been a lot of value creation and a lot of capital that's flowed in and we know that Silicon Valley has seen a boom of companies with hund00 million annual run rates like in record time around AI and a lot of people want to ring the bell at the top but to me it still feels really early because there's so such a limited number of stocks that public investors can buy that represent in a direct play on AI.
I know. But but that could lead to bubble-l like activity, right? When your pool of investable opportunities remain so small, all of this money rushes to a select few and then they have to live up to all of that hype and give a great return on these hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested.
That's not a risk. Well, it is a risk. I guess that's really the next stage of what we have to see is how does the market accept now adding to the roster of direct AI plays you know beyond just Figment and I think you know if we look at the next 12 months there'll be a bevy of IPOs some really big companies that are later stage but if they're bought and they produce good growth and their stocks perform well I would still say that still means we're early innings
that's still your favorite trade I think it's the most important trade yeah I know it's the most important I I feel like that's that's legit. But is it I think there's bigger upside in the owning financials right now. Uh because financials are benefiting from AI. Okay. So they're the second order beneficiaries.
Plus they're getting the green light to build on the blockchain which could really make JP Morgan and Goldman's business models so much more profitable and change their multiples, expand them. So, I think yes, I'm still bullish on AI, but I actually think the financials are really one of the legs that drive us the next 12 to 24 months.
Oh, interesting. Um, no matter what the Fed does from here, I mean, does the rate picture matter for the bank stocks? It does because it helps. It provides the the liquidity to sort of liqufy housing and corporate lending and bring spreads down. But I think financial sector has produced visible earnings growth for a long time through these cycles and they are trading like cyclical stocks.
They probably JP Morgan and Goldman should maybe have tech multiples and so I think there's upside for I mean there aside from when you know when the broadening started to happen on the idea of rate cuts those were the type of stocks already that were leading this market along with the mega caps. This is a large cap stock rally, right?
I mean, industrials, the biggest names out of the industrials, the biggest names out of the financials, the biggest names in tech. We're we're leading the way. Yes. You think that continues? Yes. And because, you know, at the end of the day, when you look at GDP, for every unit of economic activity, there's one unit of financial.
So financials are half the economy, but they're not half the index. Now, I'm not saying they're going to get to half the index, but they really should rerate. I mean, I think what we're even this quarter, right, the numbers from JP Morgan Goldman and the financials and look at the bullish IPO.
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