저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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Siegel은 강세장이 여전히 유효하며 6개월 내 S&P500이 5~10% 추가 상승할 수 있다고 봄. 실적 상향 수정이 이어지고 있고, 단기금리(연방기금금리)가 10년물보다 약 100bp 낮은 3%대 초반까지 하락해야 한다고 주장. 금요일 랠리가 소형주 포함 폭넓게 나타나 일시적 반등이 아니라고 평가. 8월 말~9월 초 계절적 약세기에도 강세를 유지하면 연말까지 긍정적 신호로 해석. 미국 증시는 올해 세계 최저 수준 수익률이며 달러 약세가 해외 자산 수익을 높였다고 언급. 9월 FOMC 금리인하 불발 시 랠리 종료 우려 가능성 언급, 이후 PCE 등 지표 전망 논의.
다듬은 글
More now about that and more with Jeremy Seagull, professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, also chief economist for Wisdom Tree. Professor, great to have you on. And I know those historical stats don't mean squat. They don't mean anything. They don't guarantee anything, but if you're a if you're a investor or even a gambling person, you got to kind of like those those numbers,
right? Right. If the roulette uh spin is red four times in a row, it doesn't mean it's going to be red the next time. But I think that a 9090 day is significant. I I don't think we're going to be 20% higher. Um but 5 to 10% higher within the next 6 months certainly seems like in the realm of of uh possibility.
I mean, I I think this bull market is certainly still intact. Earnings revisions are still upward. And finally, as you know, I've been calling for lower short-term rates. I believe that Fed funds rate should be in the low 3s, should be 100 basis points below the 10-year. Uh I think it is heading down there and and that I think that's great comfort to investors.
Yeah. Were you surprised by just how powerful the market move was on Friday? Yeah. I mean when when you have such breadth and such power both in growth and the value. I know Russell was up big because the it's the small stocks that are certainly looking for the short-term rate to go down but it really shows you that uh this was not a tenative rally.
I know there's a little bit of backup now uh on on the Dow, but uh when you have such a big gain and you hold most of it on the on the following Monday, especially in a seasonably weak time as we have now, I still think that that's a signal that that uh this rally isn't over. Does the volume though, or I should say lack of Friday aside, Friday, Friday we just talked about the huge volume rest of last week, it's August, it's the summer volume has been terrible, professor, today I'm sure the volume numbers won't be great.
Does does that matter in how we should think about the market? Well, again, late in a we finally had we've had wonderful weather here on the east coast up and down. People are saying, "Hey, finally beach time. They do their trades in the morning when the announcements are out and then they go to the beach." The afternoons are really dead uh in the market and uh second half of August uh you know you know given given that circumstance I think uh is is not unusual.
Uh so I'm not I'm not worried about the lack of volume certainly uh you know in the afternoons um uh and again in a seasonably weak period as we know last half of August and first half of September if you can show strength even if you can just maintain where you are in that period of time that's usually a good omen for the rest of the year.
Yeah. What's the risk though? There's always a risk to the market. We we've given the bullcase a lot of historical stuff, a lot of money coming into this market. By the way, the US markets are actually some of the worst performing in the year in the world this year. The almost every market in Europe, which I think except for France,
is is better than us this year. But what is the bigger risk to the macro market? Well, first of all, one reason of course foreign markets are doing better is the dollar is down. I mean uh that they've gained on their own to be but when you have a 10% fall in the dollar that that adds 10% to Americans foreign foreign returns uh that we have there you know but when I look at the risk I say no followth through by Jay Pow I found September 7th he said hey I'm looking at the data and uh you know I I've decided against it or we've decided as FOMC seed against it I you know I think that puts an end uh to the rally Now, I think on Friday, we're going to get that PC.
I think that's going to be a good one. Uh despite that upside surprise uh that we had in the um producer price index, I think we're going to have a a quite online or maybe even a tenth lower on one of the the monthtomonth, but I think we're going to be online in the PCE. Um yeah, and now Okay. So professor but
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